Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro pumping a 597dm ridge in the Gulf in...checks notes...February. Have to wonder if a big SE ridge early Spring preceeds any kind of Atlantic hurricane season. Last time was 2017,2018,2019.. average storms 17/yr. minus 2013 (SE trough): "The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was a well below average Atlantic hurricane season and the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes." minus 2022 that rocked a little the short term average for Febuary's "v": "The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was the first season since 1997 in which no tropical cyclones formed in August, and the lowest La Niña year since 1998." That's in this era since 2013.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 This winter is the anti-2009/10. This was the winter where we truly paid for that one. It's all downhill (or uphill, if you prefer climbing) from here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro pumping a 597dm ridge in the Gulf in...checks notes...February. I kinda of enjoyed wearing a short sleeve T-shirt in downtown DC yesterday. Next week—shorts! I mean clam diggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: No way March goes wall to wall spring. January and February did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 29 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Not that I want California to burn down, but I have appreciated the ridge west/trough east summers lately. I’m not looking forward to the next time we have a summer 2010-2012 pattern. Was just looking at this earlier today. DCA has had one 100+ degree day in the past 9 summers. The longest "cool" stretch like that since the late 60s-early 70s. Only the second such stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 47 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, it has worked out well for us in the LR so far I mean, guidance is guidance regardless of how the winter has gone so far. it's not very wise to just ignore it I get the frustration, but persistence is always genius until it's wrong at the worst time 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 7 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: @WxUSAF put this in the futility thread, but I think it might work here too...just...wow - most of this forum is in the -48 to -72 snow deficit contour... It’s just a flesh wound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I mean, guidance is guidance regardless of how the winter has gone so far. it's not very wise to just ignore it I get the frustration, but persistence is always genius until it's wrong at the worst time Very true but I don’t think it’s foolish to realize that day 10-15 looks mean nothing and we should wait until it’s inside day 7 before getting excited that the persistence is ending. Especially when those day 10 looks continue to be versions of the same tease that mutates in the same way into the same crap. Simply relying on persistence would be bad science but so would crying wolf 50 times a winter at every half decent day 10-15 look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 I won’t get excited by any day 10+ look that still has 3 features, a western trough, Aleutian and a SER. Because we’re stuck in a loop where all 3 continue to be under represented and the result is as we move closer the SER pumps more and more until those good looks are just more of the same. These good looks that rely on a bunch of things overcoming those 3 problems are just a tease. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Hell of a pattern here on the Euro weeklies. First time there is decent PNA with no hint of a SE ridge, AND a -NAO. April is gonna kick azz. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 18z GFS: Baffin Island Low dominates. -PNA dominates. Look at this piece of energy dropping into the NW @119hr: (Tracking the warmup.) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Very true but I don’t think it’s foolish to realize that day 10-15 looks mean nothing and we should wait until it’s inside day 7 before getting excited that the persistence is ending. Especially when those day 10 looks continue to be versions of the same tease that mutates in the same way into the same crap. Simply relying on persistence would be bad science but so would crying wolf 50 times a winter at every half decent day 10-15 look. I get what you mean. I'm not getting excited by any of it, though. just noting that there may be some changes due to the SSW and potential blocking as a result I think it's worth mentioning possible changes 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I won’t get excited by any day 10+ look that still has 3 features, a western trough, Aleutian and a SER. Because we’re stuck in a loop where all 3 continue to be under represented and the result is as we move closer the SER pumps more and more until those good looks are just more of the same. These good looks that rely on a bunch of things overcoming those 3 problems are just a tease. Those 3 are really just one- the persistently strong Aleutian ridge. Until that dies or shifts, the other 2 remain. We have seen plenty of evidence it cannot be mitigated by a transient -NAO or 50-50 lows. I don't see a legit sustained west-based block setting up anytime soon, and it is debatable if that would have the impact we need. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 @CAPE- Def vote you as best poster this year in LR. Appreciate ya boss! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 We live in the benign weather capital of the world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 I know I was terrorized until I posted on weather message board. Judgement ensues here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 @Ralph Wiggum Attack of the Avocados! Plenty of snow well offshore. Who has a big boat? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: @Ralph Wiggum Attack of the Avocados! Plenty of snow well offshore. Who has a big boat? Steams for the Flemish Cap. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 3 hours ago, a.salt said: Where is the Reaper when you need one? You were calling! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 30 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: @CAPE- Def vote you as best poster this year in LR. Appreciate ya boss! Thanks, but this weird hobby is a group effort. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Its a Breeze said: Was just looking at this earlier today. DCA has had one 100+ degree day in the past 9 summers. The longest "cool" stretch like that since the late 60s-early 70s. Only the second such stretch. This has been brought up and discussed before. I believe the consensus is that the increasing humidity has been keeping our temps down in some of our recent torchy summer stretches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 WB 18Z GFS. Swings are wild in the long range….March 1 at 1pm compared to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 WB 18Z GFS. Swings are wild in the long range….March 1 at 1pm compared to 12ZHi William Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 18x gfs hour 282, bowling ball cut off low cuts right through that 594 SE ridge like a hot knife through butter. Lol, yeah right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 At this point...I'm just looking for somewhere I can drive too!Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS. Swings are wild in the long range….March 1 at 1pm compared to 12Z SSWE doing it's dirty work on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: Hi William Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk That GFS 2m temperature looks like we were yesterday in Buda, TX, beautiful toasty 80 alongside a nice balmy dewpoint of 66! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Those 3 are really just one- the persistently strong Aleutian ridge. Until that dies or shifts, the other 2 remain. We have seen plenty of evidence it cannot be mitigated by a transient -NAO or 50-50 lows. I don't see a legit sustained west-based block setting up anytime soon, and it is debatable if that would have the impact we need. You’re right…they’re all part of the same feedback loop, but an Aleutian ridge alone can be mitigated. We’ve snowed with one before. Recently even. But when I see all 3 on a mean imo it means those features are still dominant and locked in and likely to trend stronger. All those other factors working to suppress the SER, one will likely not be as robust and the result is the whole boundary shifts north again. If I see a pattern with an Aleutian ridge but the SER is actually totally gone on the means and the trough axis is in the east then I might entertain that perhaps we’ve got a chance to mitigate the pac pattern. Again you’re ultimately right but I wanted to clarify that seeing all 3 on the mean to me indicates the pac ridge is still driving the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 58 minutes ago, Ji said: At this point...I'm just looking for somewhere I can drive too! Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk all 3 ensembles indicate New England (away from the coast) will get quite a bit of snow soon. I drive there to ski all the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 we might break the record for the warmest feb temp at KIAD on feb 24, we could be flirting w 80s which is completely unprecedented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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