Weather Will Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 WB 6Z GEFS…and latest GFS MJO does not go into Phase 6 the first week of March. So for at least 6 hours, still in the game the late February/ early March period. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: As it stands now on the ens means, our next best opportunity lies in this window. Yes, the perpetual 10+ days away, and this chance will probably vanish in about 5 days, to be replaced by another "promising look" 10 days later. Yep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: I look at it as a logic gate- NOT summer. A few months of enjoying the outdoors without being harassed by bugs and sweating like a pig is a win. Agree- spring is the best time of the year- before the summer heat hits us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 16 hours ago, snownut said: EastCoast NPZ ... Wow ... how much snow have you had there in Cross Junction area? It's been a toxic train wreck (worse than the real one in OH) of a season there! Increasing odds of split time retirement between VA & OR for me. Certainly will be interesting how the climate unfolds over the next 20 years. After that I will be too old to care! Photo from my last winter in Virginia. Taken in Boyce VA Feb 2014. remember the nice storms that winter? My daughter in the picture is now a graduating senior. visiting Universities all over the USA including this weekend in the midwest. I think I've got 5.5" on the season. Which is 11X what stephens city has on the year. It's been horrible, but I managed a white Christmas out of it, so I'm good. I'm likely headed back into the desert of stephens city this summer. Pray for me. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 14 hours ago, CAPE said: Making a move to a location with a "slightly better" climo in our general region probably won't make much difference at this point lol. Hell it doesn't even snow on Mount PSU anymore. Need to move to the western highlands to notice a significant difference. The climo at my place is 4F cooler than Winchester general. It does make a big difference in the marginal events (which seem to be the only events we get anymore) and how long snowcover lasts. Compared to stephens city the last several years, I live in Vail. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Can we change the thread name to "Next Winter Will Be Rockin"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 32 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS…and latest GFS MJO does not go into Phase 6 the first week of March. So for at least 6 hours, still in the game the late February/ early March period. You act as if that’s some magic dividing line. Do you really think it matters if that plot is slightly right or left of that line? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You act as if that’s some magic dividing line. Do you really think it matters if that plot is slightly right or left of that line? Today compared to yesterday…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 So after reading this thread …. I guess snow and cold are coming? Did I read correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 I always find these phase diagrams confusing but aren't we currently in phase 7 and rapidly heading into either the favorable phase 8 or the less-favorable but consistent with La Niña COD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: I always find these phase diagrams confusing but aren't we currently in phase 7 and rapidly heading into either the favorable phase 8 or the less-favorable but consistent with La Niña COD? The phase doesnt really matter when there is very little amplitude anyways. This winter is over. Not like ever started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 @WxUSAF put this in the futility thread, but I think it might work here too...just...wow - most of this forum is in the -48 to -72 snow deficit contour... 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 18 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Man, do we have a shot of +NAO before it turns negative. Look at this map (warm pattern). Now we have a tropical ridge over Florida. (may have to get past this first for -pna weakness, model has been initializing more on current conditions). I'm surprised you guys aren't talking about this. It checks back to a warm day or 2. I would watch for thunderstorms risk. (Maybe some 80s and 90s in the SE as the +NAO hooks up with -PNA.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: @WxUSAF put this in the futility thread, but I think it might work here too...just...wow - most of this forum is in the -48 to -72 snow deficit countour... Proof neutral and La Nina sucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Lets get 3 consecutive Ninos and see where we are. All Modoki ofc. 6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Lets get 3 consecutive Ninos and see where we are. All Modoki ofc. Hey I'll even take 2 in a row a la 77-78 and 78-79 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Now we have a tropical ridge over Florida. (may have to get past this first for -pna weakness, model has been initializing more on current conditions). I'm surprised you guys aren't talking about this. It checks back to a warm day or 2. I would watch for thunderstorms risk. (Maybe some 80s and 90s in the SE as the +NAO hooks up with -PNA.) Why would we discuss a nightmare? We aren’t in a therapists office. We probably should be though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 That SE ridge is off the charts. Could top 600 dm... in February! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Southern Cali in the line of fire again. Another atmospheric river headed their way with day after day after day of rain. We aren't the only ones in desperate need of a longwave pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 CFS says we FINALLY get some PAC help.........next November. But hey, if this model has any kind of value I would take that as a sign of a changing ENSO state and better look going into next winter. Obviously this is sarcastic post in a way, but that wouldn't be a terrible look headed into next winter. Aleutian low, +PNA, -AO.....sign me up please. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Southern Cali in the line of fire again. Another atmospheric river headed their way with day after day after day of rain. We aren't the only ones in desperate need of a longwave pattern change. I'm honestly happy for them. Folks out West can really use a steady dumping to get the water levels back up again. Consistent flooding rains aren't great, of course, but it's better than staying dry as a bone. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, mattie g said: I'm honestly happy for them. Folks out West can really use a steady dumping to get the water levels back up again. Consistent flooding rains aren't great, of course, but it's better than staying dry as a bone. This. The past atmospheric river event helped with the reservoirs, but the groundwater replenishment process needs much more help. So if they take another set of deluges, it's probably for the best even with the short-term pain it causes as it falls. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 ^^^great points 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Stratwarm is definitely living up to its name on March 1 as we approach 80 degrees on WB 12Z GFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 31 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm honestly happy for them. Folks out West can really use a steady dumping to get the water levels back up again. Consistent flooding rains aren't great, of course, but it's better than staying dry as a bone. Yep, this was much needed for them and I’m glad they’re putting a dent in their water crisis. I don’t think it will be long before they go on another multi-year drought, so they need whatever they can get now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 40 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Southern Cali in the line of fire again. Another atmospheric river headed their way with day after day after day of rain. We aren't the only ones in desperate need of a longwave pattern change. They need it though. Will get their reservoirs refilled and also the mountain runoff will be replenished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 44 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Stratwarm is definitely living up to its name on March 1 as we approach 80 degrees on WB 12Z GFS. The way it's been trending since 2013, and more so since 2019, is as the NAO goes negative, our temperatures peak. We probably will hit some nice 70s in the LR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Stratwarm is definitely living up to its name on March 1 as we approach 80 degrees on WB 12Z GFS.That temp gradients pretty gnarly . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 33 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Stratwarm is definitely living up to its name on March 1 as we approach 80 degrees on WB 12Z GFS. In like a lamb…roasted lamb on a spit rotating 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: In like a lamb…roasted lamb on a spit rotating That would definitely be Silence of the Lambs!! Get 'yer fava beans and chianti ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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