Stormfly Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Like playing roulette. Can score a nice jackpot but chances are rather mixed. Russian roulette. With five rounds loaded! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Trying. PNA vs NAO battle, which the PNA will win here on the EC unless something changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 31 minutes ago, Stormfly said: Russian roulette. With five rounds loaded! And one in the chamber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 23 minutes ago, Solution Man said: And one in the chamber I like our odds 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Trying. PNA vs NAO battle, which the PNA will win here on the EC unless something changes. Yea seeing first legit signal for NAO. Might have to endure -PNA for a bit… hopefully not rest of season…. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yea seeing first legit signal for NAO. Might have to endure -PNA for a bit… hopefully not rest of season…. . a -PNA isn’t nearly as much of an annoyance in March due to shorter wavelengths. a -PNA/-NAO late in the year can be quite good as long as the PNA isn’t like -5 sigma the -PNA would provide lots of shortwaves and the -NAO would provide a 50/50 that would keep things from cutting. they can be pretty great if you do get that semipermanent 50/50 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: a -PNA isn’t nearly as much of an annoyance in March due to shorter wavelengths. a -PNA/-NAO late in the year can be quite good as long as the PNA isn’t like -5 sigma the -PNA would provide lots of shortwaves and the -NAO would provide a 50/50 that would keep things from cutting. they can be pretty great if you do get that semipermanent 50/50 Dr. Amy Butler had a good thread on Twitter yesterday about late SSWs and the MJO phase when they occur. Long story short, this current setup and SSW is conducive to producing a durable -NAO in a couple/few weeks. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Dr. Amy Butler had a good thread on Twitter yesterday about late SSWs and the MJO phase when they occur. Long story short, this current setup and SSW is conducive to producing a durable -NAO in a couple/few weeks. yeah, not gonna lie, I’m getting cautiously optimistic. I want to see the -NAO at within 10 days, first of all, but I think the first 20 days of March could be quite fun before climo becomes problematic 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 23rd/24th storm looks like it may be one to keep an eye on, especially for the northern crew. Still a long way away to do anything other than loosely monitor the situation, but that appears to be our next window of opportunity for frozen. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 it seems like the clipper midweek next week may provide the first wave break that leads to blocking later on in the run. this is something that we want to monitor... if this continues to trend stronger or even remain the same, it will make it much easier for a -NAO to form the 12z GFS looks to be doing the same FWIW 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Nobody talking about the 12z GFS for Wednesday the 22nd? Looks ok to me. Hopefully it can continue the trend towards our start to winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 12z GFS seems to be showing some winter "threats" for the region starting with the 22nd through the end of the run.... continues the idea of 06z GFS Only 9 days away lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 12z GFS seems to be showing some winter "threats" for the region starting with the 22nd through the end of the run.... continues the idea of 06z GFS Only 9 days away lol CMC also shows a wave on the 22nd with temp issues along with a significant ice storm for Balt metro on the 24th. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 I would also guess that 12z CMC would be interesting after Day 10 with that large sprawling HP in Canada moving SE and h5 energy in the S Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Crazy that the long-range GFS is already poking its nose into March. (Actual) Spring will be here before we know it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 March has been a snowy month in our new base state. It wouldn't surprise me if we make up enough ground to consider this just an awful winter, instead of a historically awful winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FamouslyHot Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Hour 768 snow maps are the new 384 If you want to take this seriously at all the SE ridge and -PNA are still quite apparent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Euro looking ok for next Wednesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Crazy that the long-range GFS is already poking its nose into March. (Actual) Spring will be here before we know it. Crazier part is this the most loaded the models have been the entire winter season thus far. Could potentially make up alot of lost ground in a relatively short time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2023 Author Share Posted February 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Euro looking ok for next Wednesday blue! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Crazier part is this the most loaded the models have been the entire winter season thus far. Could potentially make up alot of lost ground in a relatively short time frame. Just in time for when most of us just want to move onto spring. Who could have expected that? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 If the gfs is right, Canada is going into the deep freeze. Pretty sure some of that would eventually get us cold enough for snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Dr. Amy Butler had a good thread on Twitter yesterday about late SSWs and the MJO phase when they occur. Long story short, this current setup and SSW is conducive to producing a durable -NAO in a couple/few weeks. So we race the clock. Similar to 2018. I’ve been hopeful of a late season window of opportunity but the base state has been so warm I do wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So we race the clock. Similar to 2018. I’ve been hopeful of a late season window of opportunity but the base state has been so warm I do wonder. March 22nd, 2018 according to my google photos. McKeldin Mall, UMD College Park. If snow could accumulate then in that part of the UHI, I'm game for it happening again. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Just in time for when most of us just want to move onto spring. Who could have expected that? I don’t think we can have the luxury of being picky about how we get our snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 3 hours ago, Scraff said: Nobody talking about the 12z GFS for Wednesday the 22nd? Looks ok to me. Hopefully it can continue the trend towards our start to winter. A lot of us have learned and are jaded. It won't be there on 18z, so what's the point? It'll be just 10 days away tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: A lot of us have learned and are jaded. It won't be there on 18z, so what's the point? It'll be just 10 days away tho Of course it will be gone here shortly. We all know that! But, it’s Valentine’s Day, it’s happy hour, maybe we’ll get some extra love today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2023 Author Share Posted February 14, 2023 EPS for March 1. -NAO starting to go negative. Looks like the gulf of Mexico would be shutdown though:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ji said: EPS for March 1. -NAO starting to go negative. Looks like the gulf of Mexico would be shutdown though:( Natch. We’ve got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 i’ve got a post all set to bump 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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