SnowGolfBro Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Lol, i am hunting 70s and 80s. Sounds like it’s not too far off! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Yessssss, another d10 possibility to track. What could go wrong!?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 I do want to say good job GFS not showing long range snowstorms, for many Winter's now, in verification. It was not like that in the early 2000s. -PNA signal in February is a reverse-ENSO historically by May-August that year(higher developing El Nino tendency). Correlation is 0.4 to a +NAO April (-PNA February, which should be top 15 all time this year). 0.3 correlation to -PNA March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Ah well, sounds like it's time to go on ENSO watch 2023-24, lol Not that we have any certainty that a well-placed mod niño still helps, but regardless I'm still gonna root for it because it kinda feels like a watershed (or in this case snowshed ) moment for what's still possible in our climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS. If you want snow in March, need cold anomalies. Under half of members are cold for March 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 ^p25 good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: ^p25 good lord I gotta get in shape and fast. Pool season next month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 There are signs of a -NAO/-AO developing in the first week of March on LR models, with a +120dm anomaly over the arctic circle at 384hr on the 18z GEFS. I think initially we will even out the cold signal with -PNA/+EPO-even, but watch to around March 7/8-18 for a possible window,bridge between the Pacific/Atlantic. (10mb warmings don't always downwell to -NAO+time, but about 70% of the time they do.) 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 My personal favorite of the day is the EURO weekly control…. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: There are signs of a -NAO/-AO developing in the first week of March on LR models, with a +120dm anomaly over the arctic circle at 384hr on the 18z GEFS. I think initially we will even out the cold signal with -PNA/+EPO-even, but watch to around March 7/8-18 for a possible window,bridge between the Pacific/Atlantic. (10mb warmings don't always downwell to -NAO+time, but about 70% of the time they do.) 70% of the time…it works every time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 70% of the time…it works every time I'm doing more research on this "when the NAO/AO go negative in the first week of March, the PNA and EPO will flux (- and +)". On 3-1, where the current D15 ensemble mean model shows a +300dm -PNA (strong signal), in the last 3 years we had a strong PNA signal on this date 3/3 times (0/7 years previous). -minus 2022 +plus 2021 +plus 2020 This is what they looked like 3.9-12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS. If you want snow in March, need cold anomalies. Under half of members are cold for March 1. SSW going to have models going nuts for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^p25 good lord While p30 says we are living in igloos. Minor differences. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 27 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: SSW going to have models going nuts for a while. Is that actually happening now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 40 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Is that actually happening now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Is that actually happening now?It appears it’s happening. The problem is, we have no clue how it’ll impact us, and models will likely be even more volatile than usual as they try to figure it out over the next week or so. Have a feeling models are going to be all over the place. Hopefully this SWW does what we need it to and doesn’t fail in disrupting the PV. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 28 minutes ago, jayyy said: It appears it’s happening. The problem is, we have no clue how it’ll impact us, and models will likely be even more volatile than usual as they try to figure it out over the next week or so. Have a feeling models are going to be all over the place. Hopefully this SWW does what we need it to and doesn’t fail in disrupting the PV. So I gather that SSW effects (and the timing of them) widely vary and are usually difficult to predict? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2023 Author Share Posted February 14, 2023 Gfs is closeSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So I gather that SSW effects (and the timing of them) widely vary and are usually difficult to predict? Yeah. Fingers crossed it'll work in our favor. Really, tbh, about the only hope we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 CMC is pretty close as well. Major winter storm verbatim for the northern crew. I’ve been watching this window for a couple days now. GFS has been close a few times. Nice to see gfs and cmc move in the right direction tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: My personal favorite of the day is the EURO weekly control…. Ji loves control runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 39 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs is close Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk So is the CMC for that matter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 WB 0Z GEPS 5 day anomaly gets the pattern change started the fastest… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 5 hours ago, MD Snow said: CMC is pretty close as well. Major winter storm verbatim for the northern crew. I’ve been watching this window for a couple days now. GFS has been close a few times. Nice to see gfs and cmc move in the right direction tonight. What is this window? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 hour ago, snowmagnet said: What is this window? The storm on the 23/24 and the chance of a front end thump. GFS, Euro and CMC all showing potential at this point. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 WB 6Z GEFS inside 10 days… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: So I gather that SSW effects (and the timing of them) widely vary and are usually difficult to predict? Like playing roulette. Can score a nice jackpot but chances are rather mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 6z GFS looks nice at the end of the run. Sadly its fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 40 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS inside 10 days… It's still a relatively weak signal at this point. The majority of members have a low tracking NW for this period. 4 or 5 have a coastal with significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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