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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


Ji
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55 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Would anyone really be surprised with how ridiculous our weather is that we would go into March with the worst winter of all time and then suddenly we get some winter just when everyone has fully moved onto Spring? 

That’s what I’m thinking. It always looks good 10-15+ days away. But I’m assuming persistence will win out. 

See you guys next year. 

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I do want to say good job GFS not showing long range snowstorms, for many Winter's now, in verification. It was not like that in the early 2000s. 

-PNA signal in February is a reverse-ENSO historically by May-August that year(higher developing El Nino tendency). Correlation is 0.4 to a +NAO April (-PNA February, which should be top 15 all time this year). 0.3 correlation to -PNA March. 

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There are signs of a -NAO/-AO developing in the first week of March on LR models, with a +120dm anomaly over the arctic circle at 384hr on the 18z GEFS. I think initially we will even out the cold signal with -PNA/+EPO-even, but watch to around March 7/8-18 for a possible window,bridge between the Pacific/Atlantic. (10mb warmings don't always downwell to -NAO+time, but about 70% of the time they do.) 

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