CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: 2019 was a moderate Nino wasn't it? I remember there being debate about whether it was a modoki or not. Either way, results were the same: SER and WAR ruled the roost. It was some sort of Nino, but I don't recall the strength. It was weird and the atmosphere acted more like a Neutral iirc. I don't think it was a modoki though. I brought up 2016 because of the NAO block, and it produced a big storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: As modeled, the SPV is not a happy camper by the end of the month. What impacts that will have on our sensible weather going forward remains to be seen. Looks plenty cold across Canada on the means, but the h5 response we want is for the AO and NAO to trend negative in order to get the cold further southward and the shift the boundary to our south. Seeing that idea to some degree on the GEFS, as well as some of the extended products. That modeled 10mb would correlate to -NAO tendency March 8-15. Last year we had a pretty strong +NAO at that time, and we have been reversing lasts years pattern more than mathematical average, so it fits. I would not be surprised if a +EPO/-PNA occurred at the same time as a downwelling -NAO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Consistent signal still showing up after the 20th 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Latest WB GEFS extended throws us a Hail Mary but it takes us until early March to get there…. I'm sure that will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Consistent signal still showing up after the 20th A marginal event on the GFS at d10 will definitely verify or at least improve over the coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 GFS has the HECS day 11, but CMC also has a decent looking pattern at end of run as well…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Consistent signal still showing up after the 20th Ah yes our weekly day 10 hope 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Just 10 more days guys. For real this time. 3 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Consistent signal still showing up after the 20th Should I start the thread or give it another day or 2? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Consistent signal still showing up after the 20th Not consistent across guidance, and only a weak signal on the GEFS to this point. That said, the advertised h5 look starts to improve around this time so not out of the question there could be something trackable towards the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 gefs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 not too shabby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 There is a stronger signal on the 12z GEFS. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: not too shabby You should have posted this one. Weenies respond to the blue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 It is under 300 hours, what do you want this year??? WB 12Z GFS… 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 It is under 300 hours, what do you want this year??? WB 12Z GFS…I’d like a 100mi shift to the SE if possible 5 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Just now, Weather Will said: It is under 300 hours, what do you want this year??? WB 12Z GFS… 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 This is really warm (-PNA/+NAO) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: This is really warm It certainly isn't very cold for our area, but not warm either. We know how that goes though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: It certainly isn't very cold for our area, but not warm either. We know how that goes though. Unless that ridge in northern Europe takes over NAO domain, that will verify in the 60s/70s probably (3 sigma +NAO). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 GEFS has been incrementally moving away from improvements in the HL over the last few runs. EPS has only been slightly hinting. Without some AO/NAO help it's going to be difficult to get the actual cold air down here and shift the boundary to our south for more than 5 mins. The ens means range from slightly below to slightly above avg temps around the end of the month. If our last best chance is end of Feb into early March, we are going to need better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 58 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’d like a 100mi shift to the SE if possible lol I would take the 2.5" over my yard in a heartbeat. One of the few parts of that map that are in the realm of possibility, and would be a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 JB over under for snow rest of the way. IAD/DCA: 12 BWI: 14 PHL: 15 I think my 7 leg same game Parlay at +1600 for the SB looks better. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 WB 12Z EPS at end of run… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS at end of run… Chuck says that's very warm tho I'm with @CAPE...not a torch but not severe cold either. But if we can get that Scan ridging to extend into the NAO that could become a very cold look really quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Chuck says that's very warm tho Super -PNA. Yikes. watch the 60s if -pna/+nao verifies at that time of year. Not going to become a cold look very quickly. We actually need a +pna Luckily, the EPS sucks as a model because it's a follower 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 57 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Chuck says that's very warm tho I'm with @CAPE...not a torch but not severe cold either. But if we can get that Scan ridging to extend into the NAO that could become a very cold look really quickly. Very weak signal for frozen on the EPS between the 20th-27th. Quite different than the GEFS. eta- that h5 look is one that could work if we are super lucky with timing as cold is on the doorstep.. otherwise with the typical bad luck, it's probably more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 hour ago, HighStakes said: JB over under for snow rest of the way. IAD/DCA: 12 BWI: 14 PHL: 15 I think my 7 leg same game Parlay at +1600 for the SB looks better. I’ll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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