CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The NAO has always had more impact the later in a season we go. March 2018 had the greatest affect of all the recent -NAOs. But at some point I’d like to see that a -NAO can overcome the pac in Dec-early Feb. Im pretty sure they can still work in March when shorter wavelengths mute the pac affects to begin with. But ultimately we need blocking to work Dec to Feb also if we want anything resembling what we think of as normal snow climo. It worked a couple years before that in Jan 2016. We have had a run with multiple Ninas and shitty neutrals since then. We need a mod Nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 30 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Not much hope from Larry Cosgrove in his weekly newsletter. Still a chance at something wintry the first week of March but other then that winter sounds pretty much over which isn't a shock. He can still see how March will be a warmer month and doesnt seem overly enthused about the SSWE and probably shouldn't be. No disrespect to the man I like reading his Letters but he has not been that stellar this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: No disrespect to the man I like reading his Letters but he has not been that stellar this year Agreed. He is usually spot on and has been the last few winters. He is also not the only one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 As modeled, the SPV is not a happy camper by the end of the month. What impacts that will have on our sensible weather going forward remains to be seen. Looks plenty cold across Canada on the means, but the h5 response we want is for the AO and NAO to trend negative in order to get the cold further southward and the shift the boundary to our south. Seeing that idea to some degree on the GEFS, as well as some of the extended products. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Agreed. He is usually spot on and has been the last few winters. He is also not the only one. Totally concur with your statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Looks like limited MJO help, as it moves back to the null phase, but it at least not in a torch phase. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Latest WB GEFS extended throws us a Hail Mary but it takes us until early March to get there…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 3 hours ago, CAPE said: It worked a couple years before that in Jan 2016. We have had a run with multiple Ninas and shitty neutrals since then. We need a mod Nino. 2019 was a moderate Nino wasn't it? I remember there being debate about whether it was a modoki or not. Either way, results were the same: SER and WAR ruled the roost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Latest WB GEFS extended throws us a Hail Mary but it takes us until early March to get there…. This has been the expectation. If we are to see a more favorable pattern, it would be the last few days of Feb into early March. Latest GEFS runs have the AO and NAO trending towards neutral by day 15, so it makes sense the GEFSx continues it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: 2019 was a moderate Nino wasn't it? I remember there being debate about whether it was a modoki or not. Either way, results were the same: SER and WAR ruled the roost. It was some sort of Nino, but I don't recall the strength. It was weird and the atmosphere acted more like a Neutral iirc. I don't think it was a modoki though. I brought up 2016 because of the NAO block, and it produced a big storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: As modeled, the SPV is not a happy camper by the end of the month. What impacts that will have on our sensible weather going forward remains to be seen. Looks plenty cold across Canada on the means, but the h5 response we want is for the AO and NAO to trend negative in order to get the cold further southward and the shift the boundary to our south. Seeing that idea to some degree on the GEFS, as well as some of the extended products. That modeled 10mb would correlate to -NAO tendency March 8-15. Last year we had a pretty strong +NAO at that time, and we have been reversing lasts years pattern more than mathematical average, so it fits. I would not be surprised if a +EPO/-PNA occurred at the same time as a downwelling -NAO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Consistent signal still showing up after the 20th 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Latest WB GEFS extended throws us a Hail Mary but it takes us until early March to get there…. I'm sure that will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Consistent signal still showing up after the 20th A marginal event on the GFS at d10 will definitely verify or at least improve over the coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 GFS has the HECS day 11, but CMC also has a decent looking pattern at end of run as well…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Consistent signal still showing up after the 20th Ah yes our weekly day 10 hope 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Just 10 more days guys. For real this time. 3 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Consistent signal still showing up after the 20th Should I start the thread or give it another day or 2? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Consistent signal still showing up after the 20th Not consistent across guidance, and only a weak signal on the GEFS to this point. That said, the advertised h5 look starts to improve around this time so not out of the question there could be something trackable towards the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 gefs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 not too shabby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 There is a stronger signal on the 12z GEFS. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: not too shabby You should have posted this one. Weenies respond to the blue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 It is under 300 hours, what do you want this year??? WB 12Z GFS… 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 It is under 300 hours, what do you want this year??? WB 12Z GFS…I’d like a 100mi shift to the SE if possible 5 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Just now, Weather Will said: It is under 300 hours, what do you want this year??? WB 12Z GFS… 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 This is really warm (-PNA/+NAO) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: This is really warm It certainly isn't very cold for our area, but not warm either. We know how that goes though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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