Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, jayyy said:

Have to think our latitude scores at least once in that late feb - march timeframe. We do late season snowfall fairly well up this way. Would absolutely love to see everyone get in on the action, but it’d be truly historically shitty if your area over to mine continued to strike out through march too.


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That’s all logical but keep in mind this is already historically unprecedentedly shitty.  My records go back 17 years but the Manchester coop records I found between 2 reliable stations go back 40 years. There is nothing close to this.  The least snow ever by this date before this year is ~12”. So it’s impossible to apply historical expectations to this since this winter has by far far far worse than anything we’ve ever experienced. 
 

[psuhoffman]

I’m still holding out hope but in the last 48 hours the mjo wave has shown signs of dying short of cold phases again. As that’s happened the hints at longer term changes up top have faded also. The SSW might still kick in but it seems the late Feb start if favorable shifts was more mjo than SSW related. 
 

If we don’t get changes up top I doubt we get anything. I know some keep trying to find ways to work around but during the last hostile PDO phase we rarely snowed without blocking help. 
 

@jayyy keep in mind in the other similar years to this where it was this warm and very low snow (never this low but lowest before this year) all the snow fell by now. The little bit of snow we lucked into was during peak cold climo. What I’m trying to say is we need a pattern change. As it now starts to warm this pattern isn’t going to work if it didn’t work during our coldest window and that pertains to us up here also. 
 

@CAPE I am also interested in what happens if we get a prolonged favorable enso state. Something I think worth noting to watch for. As I was looking at the h5 anomalies from those snows in the last hostile pdo period from 1945-1980 and the more recent -NAO fails something stuck out to me. If you adjust for the warmer base state the patters were the same. Even in the 60s for example, we often had higher heights over the east than the west coast. The mean trough was out west but with blocking systems cut across but there was still a hint of a SER. But the mid latitude base state was so cold it didn’t matter. The baroclinic boundary was south of us.  
 

Is the issue now that if you adjust that same pattern for the warmer base state it doesn’t work as well anymore.  Think of 2021. It was very close. My 1000 ft and slight latitude advantage was enough. DC was very close to a big big winter. The pattern tried it just couldn’t quite overcome the warmer base state. We don’t have enough data yet. But if we get a modoki Nino and it continues to be hard to get cold enough we might have our answer. 
 

My guess is it’s in between. That it will snow more. But maybe not as much more as we need to get out avg back to what it was. What I mean is for Baltimore to maintain a 20” avg we don’t just need a modoki Nino year to give Baltimore 20-30” those have to be the 40”+ years or else the avg will tank considering we’re averaging like 10” in all other seasons now. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 2/10/2023 at 9:57 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

How much you want to bet the east coast roasts this summer? 

Since 2015 Super El Nino, STJ correlation(storms cutting up to the Great Lakes in the Winter) has a strong correlation on the following Spring-Summer pattern. Here are our analogs:

[frd]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern tried it just couldn’t quite overcome the warmer base state. We don’t have enough data yet. But if we get a modoki Nino and it continues to be hard to get cold enough we might have our answer. 
 

Modoki Nino may not deliver if the Pac basin SST profile doesn't set up correctly.  I imagine it all depends on the anomalies and location. The grass here is still green and some bulbs have already sprouted through the soil. The 70 degrees next week will really start the thoughts of Spring.    

[CAPE]

The advertised h5 pattern on the big 3 global ens means in the LR, in conjunction with the extended products going forward, suggests we may have one last chance with a workable longwave pattern. The general window looks to be Feb 25- March 10. Beyond that climo degrades and some of the extended products shift the pattern back to more of the same. That's way out there though.

The general look at the end of the latest ens mean runs-

Beyond that all of the extended products(CMC, GEFS, CFS and Euro weeklies) to varying degrees depict an improved look in the high latitudes for a time. 

Latest CFS is representative, and along with the most recent Euro weeklies, has the best look for the longest, but they are both prone to dramatic shifts run-to run. Without significant improvement in the PNA space, we probably need a formidable -NAO for 7-10 days to get a few legit cracks at something. This is likely our last best shot. Hail Mary time.

 

 

[wxdude64]

6 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Totally unscientific but maybe we luck into something before  IN April.  

Fixed for you 

[Prestige Worldwide]

 

[Stormfly]

Let's welcome the anti-snow overlords, our water tables need a break from the salt!

[CAPE]

This depiction may very well be completely wrong on the 18z GFS at D15, but why would snow be possible given that low track on this run? Have not seen anything like that this winter. Should be mild rain with a weak pos High running away! Answer is (as advertised) a legit -NAO, with a 'captured' 50-50 vortex, and surface HP locked in. That low track would be further south if not for the awful pacific, and it probably would be anyway with a legit block. Op runs have been hinting -NAO lately towards the end of the month(also seeing it suggested on the ensembles). Maybe it IS still meteorologically possible for a NA block to work in somewhat mitigating a significantly -PNA, at least within a model simulation lol. Hopefully we will get to find out.

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The models are starting to include a -NAO from 10mb warming making it to 500mb by the turn of the month. March 2018 could be a good analog, if it pans out. 

If it's a legit Stratosphere warming, the lag time to 500mb at this time of the year is +15-20 Days (There is no D-0 correlation minus commonalities(+=+)). 

[Terpeast]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

My guess is it’s in between. That it will snow more. But maybe not as much more as we need to get out avg back to what it was. What I mean is for Baltimore to maintain a 20” avg we don’t just need a modoki Nino year to give Baltimore 20-30” those have to be the 40”+ years or else the avg will tank considering we’re averaging like 10” in all other seasons now. 

I don’t expect we will ever return to the 20” avg. After doing that trend graph I did a month or so ago, I think that’s the writing on the wall. We may hold a 10” median / 15” mean, but certainly not a return to 20” in either averaging method. 

Still expect some big winters ahead or at least some years with a HECS thrown in, though.

Best case scenario is we get a heater that resembles a warmer version of the 1960s with blocking. Less snow overall, but maybe some juiced up storms that drop 24” that would otherwise have produced 12” in a colder climate.

 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

This depiction may very well be completely wrong on the 18z GFS at D15, but why would snow be possible given that low track on this run? Have not seen anything like that this winter. Should be mild rain with a weak pos High running away! Answer is (as advertised) a legit -NAO, with a 'captured' 50-50 vortex, and surface HP locked in. That low track would be further south if not for the awful pacific, and it probably would be anyway with a legit block. Op runs have been hinting -NAO lately towards the end of the month(also seeing it suggested on the ensembles). Maybe it IS still meteorologically possible for a NA block to work in somewhat mitigating a significantly -PNA, at least within a model simulation lol. Hopefully we will get to find out.

 

 

it’s pretty refreshing to see a 50/50 feature be the deepest anomaly in NA. along with the SSW, it helps me think the blocking signal is a bit more legit with the dipole 

[thunderbolt]

52 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The models are starting to include a -NAO from 10mb warming making it to 500mb by the turn of the month. March 2018 could be a good analog, if it pans out. 

If it's a legit Stratosphere warming, the lag time to 500mb at this time of the year is +15-20 Days (There is no D-0 correlation minus commonalities(+=+)). 

I was always curious when the every day models will start to pick up on The effects of the SSW

[MDScienceTeacher]

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s all logical but keep in mind this is already historically unprecedentedly shitty.  My records go back 17 years but the Manchester coop records I found between 2 reliable stations go back 40 years. There is nothing close to this.  The least snow ever by this date before this year is ~12”. So it’s impossible to apply historical expectations to this since this winter has by far far far worse than anything we’ve ever experienced. 
 

This is a very interesting post @psuhoffman.  This tells me just how entrenched this current snow drought is and just how wide spread it is.  I was actually a little surprised by the ~12 inch number.. thinking that there had to be other years sprinkled in that were close to this.  This tells me that no one is getting snow any where, regardless of climo, elevation or latitude.  I mean, its the same all the way to through New York.  Look at Rochester:

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s pretty refreshing to see a 50/50 feature be the deepest anomaly in NA. along with the SSW, it helps me think the blocking signal is a bit more legit with the dipole 

Yeah the end of the GEFS run looks like an actual NAO dipole/rex block is getting established, following the GFS op. Good signs the last few runs. We shall see.

[Weather Will]

WB latest GEFS extended…likes the period late February/ early March

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest GEFS extended…likes the period late February/ early March

How many times have we seen this NOT come true? Multiple. 

[mappy]

Always 10 days away 

[Maestrobjwa]

30 minutes ago, mappy said:

Always 10 days away 

For winters like this one, we oughta get sarcastic shirts made that says "Forever Day 10" or "I live at 384 Hour Street"

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, CAPE said:

This depiction may very well be completely wrong on the 18z GFS at D15, but why would snow be possible given that low track on this run? Have not seen anything like that this winter. Should be mild rain with a weak pos High running away! Answer is (as advertised) a legit -NAO, with a 'captured' 50-50 vortex, and surface HP locked in. That low track would be further south if not for the awful pacific, and it probably would be anyway with a legit block. Op runs have been hinting -NAO lately towards the end of the month(also seeing it suggested on the ensembles). Maybe it IS still meteorologically possible for a NA block to work in somewhat mitigating a significantly -PNA, at least within a model simulation lol. Hopefully we will get to find out.

 

 

The NAO has always had more impact the later in a season we go. March 2018 had the greatest affect of all the recent -NAOs. But at some point I’d like to see that a -NAO can overcome the pac in Dec-early Feb. Im pretty sure they can still work in March when shorter wavelengths mute the pac affects to begin with. But ultimately we need blocking to work Dec to Feb also if we want anything resembling what we think of as normal snow climo. 

[Rtd208]

Not much hope from Larry Cosgrove in his weekly newsletter. Still a chance at something wintry the first week of March but other then that winter sounds pretty much over which isn't a shock. He can still see how March will be a  warmer month and doesnt seem overly enthused about the SSWE and probably shouldn't be.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The NAO has always had more impact the later in a season we go. March 2018 had the greatest affect of all the recent -NAOs. But at some point I’d like to see that a -NAO can overcome the pac in Dec-early Feb. Im pretty sure they can still work in March when shorter wavelengths mute the pac affects to begin with. But ultimately we need blocking to work Dec to Feb also if we want anything resembling what we think of as normal snow climo. 

It worked a couple years before that in Jan 2016. We have had a run with multiple Ninas and shitty neutrals since then. We need a mod Nino.

[thunderbolt]

30 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Not much hope from Larry Cosgrove in his weekly newsletter. Still a chance at something wintry the first week of March but other then that winter sounds pretty much over which isn't a shock. He can still see how March will be a  warmer month and doesnt seem overly enthused about the SSWE and probably shouldn't be.

No disrespect to the man  I like reading his Letters but he has not been that stellar this year

[Rtd208]

4 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

No disrespect to the man  I like reading his Letters but he has not been that stellar this year

Agreed. He is usually spot on and has been the last few winters. He is also not the only one.

[CAPE]

As modeled, the SPV is not a happy camper by the end of the month. What impacts that will have on our sensible weather going forward remains to be seen. Looks plenty cold across Canada on the means, but the h5 response we want is for the AO and NAO to trend negative in order to get the cold further southward and the shift the boundary to our south. Seeing that idea to some degree on the GEFS, as well as some of the extended products.

[thunderbolt]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Agreed. He is usually spot on and has been the last few winters. He is also not the only one.

Totally concur with your statement

[Weather Will]

Looks like limited MJO help, as it moves back to the null phase, but it at least not in a torch phase. 

[Weather Will]

Latest WB GEFS extended throws us a Hail Mary but it takes us until early March to get there….

 

 

[cbmclean]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

It worked a couple years before that in Jan 2016. We have had a run with multiple Ninas and shitty neutrals since then. We need a mod Nino.

2019 was a moderate Nino wasn't it?  I remember there being debate about whether it was a modoki or not.  Either way, results were the same: SER and WAR ruled the roost.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest WB GEFS extended throws us a Hail Mary but it takes us until early March to get there….

 

 

This has been the expectation. If we are to see a more favorable pattern, it would be the last few days of Feb into early March.

Latest GEFS runs have the AO and NAO trending towards neutral by day 15, so it makes sense the GEFSx continues it.