Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: la nina Ya know, I actually understand for this month. But I don't remember a nina with wall-to-wall SER on steroids. I mean that typical cold on the front end of winter never really came! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: la nina Worst of both el nino and la nina. This may be why post-nina neutral winters are the worst for us in snowfall. As the nina decays, the atmosphere starts acting more like a nino out west but the SER stays. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 The Day 13/14 12z GFS blizzard in SNE and NYC would be a hilarious end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 46 minutes ago, yoda said: The Day 13/14 12z GFS blizzard in SNE and NYC would be a hilarious end With March rearing it's head and the pattern actually looking more than favorable, this may actually be just the beginning. Could be a wild 2-3 week finish to a backloaded winter. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 3 hours ago, yoda said: You know some big snowstorm is going to show up in late March lol I said that weeks ago. March 23rd, book it. Big snowstorm during spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: Worst of both el nino and la nina. This may be why post-nina neutral winters are the worst for us in snowfall. As the nina decays, the atmosphere starts acting more like a nino out west but the SER stays. A good point. I've been thinking along the same lines. Makes sense actually. It has been acting like a hybrid Strong Nina/Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: With March rearing it's head and the pattern actually looking more than favorable, this may actually be just the beginning. Could be a wild 2-3 week finish to a backloaded winter. ok jb 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 weeklies are kind of ridiculous… locked and loaded throughout the run. every member has a SSW that occurs by the 16th as some have already mentioned, I am skeptical about the effects of the SSW, as models are notoriously horrible with tropospheric effects. however, given the strength of the SSW, I would be more inclined to see a switch to a blocky pattern like this rather than keeping with the status quo 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: la nina Ya know, I actually understand for this month. But I don't remember a nina with wall-to-wall SER on steroids. I mean that typical cold on the front end of winter never really came! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 She goin'!!! I know it won't help for the rest of this winter, I'm just happy to see it go and see things try and set up for next winter. Get the heck outta here! Time and make room for El Niño...(No guarantees, of course, but I just wanna shuffle the ENSO deck again) Now to see if a neutral March bodes well for a solid Niño by Fall... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: weeklies are kind of ridiculous… locked and loaded throughout the run. every member has a SSW that occurs by the 16th as some have already mentioned, I am skeptical about the effects of the SSW, as models are notoriously horrible with tropospheric effects. however, given the strength of the SSW, I would be more inclined to see a switch to a blocky pattern like this rather than keeping with the status quo One thing of note- the weeklies initialized off the 0z run, which had a more promising look at the end in the HL and hinted at a -NAO developing. The 12z run today took a step back, looking like more of the same rather than some sort of a meaningful pattern change getting underway. Not sure I would put much faith in this edition of the weeklies. Need to see more persistent hints of a favorable shift in the pattern towards the end of the month over the next few ensemble model cycles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 From the WashPost: how-a-predicted-polar-vortex-disruption-could-spur-winter-s-revenge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Ji said: ok jb Did he start getting all religious and philosophical Iike he does when he is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 WB 18Z GFS….WE CAN DREAM…13 Days… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 37 minutes ago, J.Mike said: From the WashPost: how-a-predicted-polar-vortex-disruption-could-spur-winter-s-revenge That is very very bad, Here is to hoping the brunt of it smashes straight into the Washington Metropolitan Region delivering incredible amounts of snow. Better yet, a triple phaser that dumps record amounts of snow from Florida right up the eastern Seaboard into Maine, 100,000 year magnitude snows, particularly the Mid Atlantic. A HUGE TROWAL forms dumping torrential snows on the entire Mid Atlantic for five fun-filled days and DC gets a good taste of Tahoe and Alta. I am pulling hard for incredible snows and record vodka Siberian air in the Mid Atlantic, with 50s/60s in south central Texas. One frackin' thing is fo' sure! No one on here can ever call me a Deb. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS….WE CAN DREAM…13 Days… Make preparations now. Only 15 days to get ready. Make sure you buy enough eggs to feed the entire metro area with quiche, a minimum of 10 loaves of bread because why not, and all the toilet paper just in case it never melts and after all the leftover quiche... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Make preparations now. Only 15 days to get ready. Make sure you buy enough eggs to feed the entire metro area with quiche, a minimum of 10 loaves of bread because why not, and all the toilet paper just in case it never melts and after all the leftover quiche... Dont forget the beer kegs and the IPA's. Lay in a damn good supply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 It actually starts at Day 13… so better get started a little earlier…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, Jebman said: That is very very bad, Here is to hoping the brunt of it smashes straight into the Washington Metropolitan Region delivering incredible amounts of snow. Better yet, a triple phaser that dumps record amounts of snow from Florida right up the eastern Seaboard into Maine, 100,000 year magnitude snows, particularly the Mid Atlantic. A HUGE TROWAL forms dumping torrential snows on the entire Mid Atlantic for five fun-filled days and DC gets a good taste of Tahoe and Alta. I am pulling hard for incredible snows and record vodka Siberian air in the Mid Atlantic, with 50s/60s in south central Texas. One frackin' thing is fo' sure! No one on here can ever call me a Deb. This post I made is ridiculous. I realize it deserves a billion hot dogs. But I want DC to be FebuBuried in snow. I used to live there. I know what it is to crave snow and get 50s all winter. I am pulling so hard for you guys to get snowed in its unbelievable. I'm crazy, but I just might be right. Weather's goin nuts these days. Anything's possible. If a crazy nut can forecast the DC weather, let a crazy nut forecast the DC weather. lmao Now lets see how many hot dogs this post gets. I love them New York Yankees hot dogs a lot, lets have about 7,000 of those. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Make preparations now. Only 15 days to get ready. Make sure you buy enough eggs to feed the entire metro area with quiche, a minimum of 10 loaves of bread because why not, and all the toilet paper just in case it never melts and after all the leftover quiche... as the thread says--LATE FEB will be Rockin. I know more than people think on this board:) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 i think this March will give us the closest chance we have had to a March 1993 type storm since that storm 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ji said: i think this March will give us the closest chance we have had to a March 1993 type storm since that storm ok jb 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ok jb haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: i think this March will give us the closest chance we have had to a March 1993 type storm since that storm It's Booked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Ji said: as the thread says--LATE FEB will be Rockin. I know more than people think on this board:) I said I had some optimism for late Feb and March. That's relative to the no hope despair I've felt for the whole winter up until now...so don't get carried away and say I think snowmageddon is coming...but I could see us maybe having some legit threats for snow the last week of Feb and through March. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya know, I actually understand for this month. But I don't remember a nina with wall-to-wall SER on steroids. I mean that typical cold on the front end of winter never really came! Yes it did. December was slightly below normal. That is equivalent to frigid when you adjust for inflation. And it actually had a legit cold week-ish. Sure it was marred by the cutter. This winter was legitimately front loaded. Just the front load was only good in comparison to the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Just now, cbmclean said: Yes it did. December was slightly below normal. That is equivalent to frigid when you adjust for inflation. And it actually had a legit cold week-ish. Sure it was marred by the cutter. This winter was legitimately front loaded. Just the front load was only good in comparison to the rest of winter. But yet all of January was warm, wasn't it? Whereas last year and the previous ninas it was also cold...Can ya call two cold weeks in December front loaded? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Ji said: as the thread says--LATE FEB will be Rockin. I know more than people think on this board:) When I started hanging around here years ago, I'm not sure I would have ever believed that the day would come when and Ji would be the optimist on this board. Well here we are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But yet all of January was warm, wasn't it? Whereas last year and the previous ninas it was also cold...Can ya call two cold weeks in December front loaded? Lol December is the front, right? And it's the only month that was not a wall-to-wall torch. Ergo the winter was front loaded. Nobody ever said the load would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: December is the front, right? And it's the only month that was not a wall-to-wall torch. Ergo the winter was front loaded. Nobody ever said the load would be good. Now I thought the front was Mid Dec-Jan but...maybe that's subjective? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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