mattie g Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: FWIW the Canadian ENS made a significant improvement compared to 12z. way stronger with the ULL compared to 00z and colder than the GEFS I give you full marks for finding the silver lining in the coming rain clouds! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Got to get the low 50-75 miles east of Norfolk and not over it. I’ll be watching that rather tepid high to n-nw to see how the low location aides it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: IMO this is what to look for if we want improvements here... Look back at that GFS run a couple days ago that was a legit snow across our area without needing some miraculous 10 degree dynamic cooling (dont get me wrong it still took a lot going right but this was a better setup). This result.... was because of this setup Look where the upper low is cutting off there, as it crosses the central Apps and the surface low is developing to its east which limits the SE flow here. Also its more connected to the northern stream there so it does have some ability to tap cold air, what little there is. Calling it cold might be a crime but "cooler" at least. But look at the latest 12z GFS same time That's just not going to work. The upper low is cutting off way too far south, putting the surface development way to our south also which places us under a long duration of southeast flow obliterating what marginal cool air we have to work with. Plus it means the system is completely cut off from the northern stream which allows the very marginal to start with "cool" mix of maritime pacific and modified CP air to get stale and degrade from "maybe slightly workable" to "Nope". What we need is for the h5 to trend back to the north and cut off over the TN valley not down in the deep south. I don't know if there is enough time for that to be a realistic ask but its what we need and should look for on future runs. If we don't get that the only chance we have is to get some kind of ridiculous crazy once in a generation type event where we get death banded so extreme that it can dynamically cool the thermal profile by like 10 degrees. That is incredibly unlikely. It's not impossible. And places with some elevation have a better chance of that type thing working out. But by far the better way for us to get snow would be for those adjustments in the H5 I listed above. Starting to get late for major shifts but if we needed a shift at 500mb level I'd rather be needing a north shift than south. 200 miles further north with the cut off would probably get it done. Possible still with it being 4 days out. Thr better runs had this a Saturday night/ Sunday morning deal before the cut off low decided to take a tour of the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, mattie g said: I give you full marks for finding the silver lining in the coming rain clouds! hey, what else can we do? nothing in the pipeline for like 10-15 days after this 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 34 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: I think @stormtrackerneeds to share his plants with y’all. May help ease the pain. In the meantime I recommend open those windows up and getting some fresh air absolutely. No chance for snow so bring on the nice temps so we can enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunny23 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 43 minutes ago, Scraff said: I don’t know about WISP this year, but Timberline this past Saturday was absolutely stellar. The new owners that came in a few years ago are killing it there. I was super impressed for my first time on that mountain. Timberline has been awesome this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 40 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: They really have turned Timberline around. I was up there after Christmas and Timberline was rocking! Canaan Valley resort down the road had like 2 slopes open. I've been there nearly every weekend since Dec, and Timberline has been really good all season long. Almost miraculous considering the lack of natural snowfall there this year. They will warm up for a few days and then inevitably get a few days and nights below freezing, during which they fire up the guns. They invested millions in snowmaking in the offseason, and it's really paid off. We were at Snowshoe last weekend, and the snow was nowhere near as good as Timberline. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Are you really going to be mad that you missed some mashed potatoes in the middle of two heat waves that is instantly incinerated by the sun? If I miss snow, I get upset.. but none worse than when it is south of me! - I am a child when it comes to missing snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I think the Euro is going to save us here shortly. Can’t wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Euro at 60 is already less progressive than 66 at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 22 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: If I miss snow, I get upset.. but none worse than when it is south of me! - I am a child when it comes to missing snow. I'm the same way...prime example? Dec 2018 still annoys me a bit, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Part of the formed closed low is over TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 It's farther south than the GFS. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Scraff said: I think the Euro is going to save us here shortly. Can’t wait! Maybe it'll save us tracking time by being OTS. I'm kidding, but that should be the concern at this point lol. Who cares how cold it is if we're on the fringe anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 But there's s/w energy in NW pressing down heights lines more than the GFS...not sure that's gonna make a difference here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Upper low is about 150 miles west of the GFS at 78 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Upper low is about 150 miles west of the GFS at 78 Good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Get used to it, man. Never snowing again. Base state, new normal, and all. As you know, winter and I had a nasty divorce back in 2015. For some reason I fell for the trap in early December. Maybe we’ll go back to frenemies with benefits next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Good I'm not sure that's good. Euro is slower with the UL than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 light rain enters the area at 96. Fzra for I-81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 moderate rain at 102...850 low and snow under it is in centered over NC/TN border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Looks like wall to wall rain for the area outside of I-81, but even they don't do exceptionally well either. Looks like mostly Fzra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Looks like wall to wall rain for the area outside of I-81, but even they don't do exceptionally well either. Looks like mostly Fzra It's a "more interesting" run even if it doesn't do the job, I guess. Good run for SWVA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's a "more interesting" run even if it doesn't do the job, I guess. Good run for SWVA Yea, looks like it came nw...maybe significantly. Edit: I should add I'm comparing it to 0z, not 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 What's the old weenie saying? Always comes north in the last 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 it actually gets it done for western folks at 114 - 850s cooperate under the deform and surface is 34-35 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 After this mess, seems like we get a PD weekend cold shot, but looks very transient so would need a well timed storm hot on its heels to take advantage. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 weenie map 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: weenie map Let’s get that 100 mile NE trend goin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: weenie map If this verifies I am up to an inch for the season!!!! Whoohoo!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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