Terpeast Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On the plus side, if we trend towards another nina/neutral, then I can book a long vacation next winter without fear of missing a KU. Everything has an upshot… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: On the plus side, if we trend towards another nina/neutral, then I can book a long vacation next winter without fear of missing a KU. Everything has an upshot… Yea as an avid skier I used to have to worry and stress about planning and being flexible so I didn’t miss a big snow at home. Now…naw just plan my ski trips. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea as an avid skier I used to have to worry and stress about planning and being flexible so I didn’t miss a big snow at home. Now…naw just plan my ski trips. Yeah, steamboat in colo is one of my favorites. Especially the back slopes where you can carve out some cold smoke. Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lmao now we're getting into whether Ninos lead to +PNAs anymore? come on. the tropical forcing is in a different spot and encourages the Aleutian ridging that we see in Ninas to move farther E. this is also why "good" MJO phases often occur more in Ninos, since they positively feed back... instead of in Ninas where the waves suddenly die once close to Phase 8 No one is saying a Nino (at least a central or west based) isn’t better or definitely won’t help. But the speculation is because some studies recently correlated two of our biggest issues wrt the pac with non enso causes due to overall SST warming. Given the failure of the 2019 Nino to significantly impact the pac base state I think it’s fair to at least speculate. Yes the 2019 Nino was weak but it’s also possible, if unlikely, that ninos will have a harder time overcoming the pac base state of other factors are driving it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 let's keep it simple here are all the weak-moderate Ninos since 1950: here are all the weak-moderate Ninas in the same timeframe: Ninos far and away present the possibility for a great pattern. let's just root for one next year 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: No one is saying a Nino (at least a central or west based) isn’t better or definitely won’t help. But the speculation is because some studies recently correlated two of our biggest issues wrt the pac with non enso causes due to overall SST warming. Given the failure of the 2019 Nino to significantly impact the pac base state I think it’s fair to at least speculate. Yes the 2019 Nino was weak but it’s also possible, if unlikely, that ninos will have a harder time overcoming the pac base state of other factors are driving it. I personally think the 2018-19 Nino was just a weak, weird one in a Nina base state. it sucked, but I'm not sure much more can be said about it. you're gonna have strange ones in a sample that big... same can be said for 2010-11, which was a strong Nina but was prolific over a good portion of the NE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: K lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol I have no clue what to say to that "K" response. But moving on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I personally think the 2018-19 Nino was just a weak, weird one in a Nina base state. it sucked, but I'm not sure much more can be said about it. you're gonna have strange ones in a sample that big... same can be said for 2010-11, which was a strong Nina but was prolific over a good portion of the NE I tend to agree BUT if we wanted to play devils advocate (I look at both sides of everything) look at 2019 The pac looks really familiar there… So I do think (hope) that was just a fluke and maybe being weak (but not weaker than other ninos that still had a canonical pac pattern) it failed to impact the pattern the way a stronger Nino would. But it’s suspicious it happened in the most recent and only test case we have so far during this run of pacific awfulness. My money is on a modoki Nino causing more snow. But I think it’s fair to at least entertain the possibility the pac trouble runs deeper than enso. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I have no clue what to say to that. But moving on... PSU averages 50 inches of snow a year...but the past 2 winters, his elevation has played no factor and he has become one of us peons...so if we are not getting snow...he isnt either and its pissing him off 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I tend to agree BUT if we wanted to play devils advocate (I look at both sides of everything) look at 2019 The pac looks really familiar there… So I do think (hope) that was just a fluke and maybe being weak (but not weaker than other ninos that still had a canonical pac pattern) it failed to impact the pattern the way a stronger Nino would. But it’s suspicious it happened in the most recent and only test case we have so far during this run of pacific awfulness. My money is on a modoki Nino causing more snow. But I think it’s fair to at least entertain the possibility the pac trouble runs deeper than enso. yeah, the PDO can be unfavorable for a long period of time regardless of ENSO... hence the Decadal part of it haha there's really just no way to be sure right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: PSU averages 50 inches of snow a year...but the past 2 winters, his elevation has played no factor and he has become one of us peons...so if we are not getting snow...he isnt either and its pissing him off K 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 It doesn't matter what next year will be! We just went through a snowless January at +10. A system came through last night with a narrow 30 mile swath and nobody even got an inch. There's no way next year can be worse. These little spats are cluttering the thread over speculation if not paranoia!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Just now, HighStakes said: It doesn't matter what next year will be! We just went through a snowless January at +10. A system came through last night with a narrow 30 mile swath and nobody even got an inch. There's no way next year can be worse. These little spats are cluttering the thread over speculation if not paranoia!! It can be worse. This year we got 0.5… next year we might get 0.0. Unlikely, but anything’s possible. Hopefully it’s just me being a smartass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: It doesn't matter what next year will be! We just went through a snowless January at +10. A system came through last night with a narrow 30 mile swath and nobody even got an inch. There's no way next year can be worse. These little spats are cluttering the thread over speculation if not paranoia!! February snowfall right now is actually above average! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: February snowfall right now is actually above average! Yes until tomorrow morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: It doesn't matter what next year will be! We just went through a snowless January at +10. A system came through last night with a narrow 30 mile swath and nobody even got an inch. There's no way next year can be worse. These little spats are cluttering the thread over speculation if not paranoia!! I agree, except its not really cluttering the thread because without these spats there would probably be nothing at all to discuss other than a once a day "yup still looks the same" post. I think some just want to converse about the weather (so its not banter really) but since there is nothing positive about the pattern it ends up inevitably steering into these side debates. Ji's post that started this most recent tangent was valid...and belonged here...it just got more attention and discussion because there isn't much else to talk about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: K KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Go...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 17 minutes ago, Ji said: PSU averages 50 inches of snow a year...but the past 2 winters, his elevation has played no factor and he has become one of us peons...so if we are not getting snow...he isnt either and its pissing him off No..it's me. I moved up here and destroyed the climo. This is my second winter away from Annopoils climo and Annopoils has had more snow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 FWIW the ECMWF is pretty gung-ho on a weak to moderate Nino next year 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, MDstorm said: Go...... If that's the SST anomaly heading into next winter I am predicting +20 with negative snowfall. That's right that winter will be so awful it will go back in time and steal all our snowfall from previous winters. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: FWIW the ECMWF is pretty gung-ho on a weak to moderate Nino next year But more importantly where is it centered? If we get an east based Nino with the raging warm northwest pacific and western Atlantic... we are likely going to torch. Frankly that will make things worse! Like trying to fix your stab wound by shooting yourself in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 44 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, steamboat in colo is one of my favorites. Especially the back slopes where you can carve out some cold smoke. Epic. I went to Steamboat in Feb 1996 back when I used to ski -- I had the epic winter here then went there and saw what 5-6 feet of snow on the ground looks like. Oh and we had an 8" snow here a couple days before I went and another 8" snow a few days after I got back. What. A. Winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea as an avid skier I used to have to worry and stress about planning and being flexible so I didn’t miss a big snow at home. Now…naw just plan my ski trips. The last and only big trip I ever made in mid winter was well…unfortunately…Disney World…February 2010. Yeah. You know! Damn right I’m still bitter! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 27 minutes ago, MDstorm said: Go...... Wow, oceans gonna boil in both sides and up top. Looking at this map feels like running the a/c all year round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 54 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, steamboat in colo is one of my favorites. Especially the back slopes where you can carve out some cold smoke. Epic. I like Steamboat, will probably get at least one day in there in a couple weeks when I am out there. I like Winter Park a lot too. The tree skiing on Mary Jane and Eagle Wind is awesome. For anyone thinking of moving to Colorado for snow...the area around Steamboat is actually probably where you want to be. A lot of the other towns people live in Colorado have a pretty nasty snowshadow affect. And even when they do get snow due to downsloping often it melts pretty fast. But the area west of Steamboat Ski resort actually gets a ton of snow and stays pretty cold. It's a high elevation plateau and far enough from any other ridges to their west and north that they don't suffer from downsloping like most Colorado towns with systems tracking west to east across the state. 20" plus storms aren't unusual in town there unlike most of the other lower elevations and whenever I am there in winter there is always deep snowcover even down in the town not just at the ski resort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 D9-10 euro looks nice until you check low level temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 So much for February rockin’. More like “doom and gloom for the next decade”. I’ll take Jebman’s optimism and hope our .5 “ is a precursor for a better end of winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: D9-10 euro looks nice until you check low level temps I’ll go out on a limb and say that a 988 low won’t have those low level temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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