87storms Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I think we should be tracking precip at this point. It’s not even a sure thing that we get anything from this system. We already know the uphill battle in temps given the 5 days of milder weather leading in. The 250mb map shows that there’s just little or no phasing with the northern stream, so how far north this goes is the real question. I’m hoping for precip bc I have the Catoctin’s at 1000ft+ on my doorstep…worst case, maybe I can drive up there for a hike and snow tv. Michaux would be tempting as well if the system gets that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: @stormtracker, you got the mic? yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 12Z Icon would make things happen in a big way for Western NC mountains/SW VA and up into Central VA 81 corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: 12Z Icon would make things happen in a big way for Western NC mountains/SW VA and up into Central VA 81 corridor. so much for German engineering - took hours to load in. Real close around the metro honestly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Most of the amped up solutions deliver an absolute crush job to Canaan Valley - particularly the peaks. While some of the weaker ones have a sharp cutoff of the precip...lots of nasty ice. This forum is allegedly about WV as well, right? I bet a good number of us will be there this weekend (I will). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 so far, at 48, almost carbon copy of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Thru to 63, no notable changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thru to 63, no notable changes Same through 78 with very very slight more ridging in front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thru to 63, no notable changes I see a tiny closed 528 contour at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 850's are warmer than 6z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 h5 low is down in the FLorida Panhandle at 84 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 they cool down a bit, but precip seems farther south a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: 850's are warmer than 6z so far Looks kinda like a wash to me thru 84 but not sure it matters much anyway - we get the perfect solution or we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: so much for German engineering - took hours to load in. Real close around the metro honestly. Tick east with the heavy snow….this is a win for me if I get heavy snow for a few hours…this may not get resolved until we are outcasting on Sunday… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Problem is where is it pulling the cold from??? there is no cold to tap to our north within 500 miles. The only cold is the pocket of dynamically cooled air. The slight imperfection that doomed the euro control was the slow movement and early close off of the upper low allowing us to be under easterly flow for too long. Plus by the time the system gets here it’s vertically stacked and not amplifying which is worse for dynamic cooling. Also there is a limit. We’re not asking to cool a marginal column with a wet bulb of 36 degrees. On that run the boundary is torched. It’s too much to overcome no matter how heavy the precip is. Yes, I was wrong to say pull in cold air, I meant generate its own cold air. I am not as well versed in meteorology as others in here, but I have followed snowstorms closely since I was a kid. I do think there are some that are getting caught up on certain things (like mid level and ground temps) and being too dismissive about snow chances. Either way, I appreciate your breakdowns as I try to get better educated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Rain begins at hr 99, but it's snow just west of i81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 h5 in S SC at 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looks kinda like a wash to me thru 84 but not sure it matters much anyway - we get the perfect solution or we don't. Yeah, even if we get a "perfect" solution it probably won't be good enough for the metros. Just too warm unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 hr 105, still rain for most of the forum, except maybe i-85 central va down to roanoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Nice looking h5 low at 105 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 This run is warmer than 6z . Still rain at 111 vs snow at 6z at 117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah, even if we get a "perfect" solution it probably won't be good enough for the metros. Just too warm unfortunately. mostly agree - this run verbatim is spitting out some snow in SC (and not just the mountains) - think there is a path to victory with perfection and a better placed vort pass. Just way too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 850's are warmer than 6z so far This thing cutting off so far south isn’t going to do us any favors. We need it to cutoff farther north so there’s still some meager amount of cold air aloft when it gets here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Almost 40 degrees and rain for the lowlands on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: This run is warmer than 6z . Still rain at 111 vs snow at 6z at 117 The slowdown combined with an already awful airmass is what sunk this one. Welp...we made it till' 120 hrs this time--maybe next weekend we can bring it home 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 All rain, wall to wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah, even if we get a "perfect" solution it probably won't be good enough for the metros. Just too warm unfortunately. Why wouldn't the 540 line be in Canada the second week of February with a coastal low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: mostly agree - this run verbatim is spitting out some snow in SC (and not just the mountains) - think there is a path to victory with perfection and a better placed vort pass. Just way too far south Yeah, goal posts ever so narrow. There is no cold air anywhere to be found in the entire CONUS for this storm though. 540 thickness line in Montreal isn't usually good for us lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 And that's it folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 What's funny is if you put in KDCA and pull up the sounding at 111... it says best precip type is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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