Chris78 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Looks like deep creek is the place to be for this week @nj2va 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Looks like deep creek is the place to be for this week @nj2va Most of the recent GFS runs show precip barely even reaching deep creek. Could be the place to be solely due to the likelihood of there being more cold, but doesn't seem that farfetched that they could get shut out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 24 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching and the 850s are only marginally better -- the control throws down this absolute banner of a deform band and it isn't enough to paste the cities, at least verbatim. That should be a 2-3 inch per hour band. Instead, it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: Most of the recent GFS runs show precip barely even reaching deep creek. Could be the place to be solely due to the likelihood of there being more cold, but doesn't seem that farfetched that they could get shut out as well. Eps disagrees. But yes you are correct for some of the OP runs the last few cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, osfan24 said: That should be a 2-3 inch per hour band. Instead, it's rain. 6Z GFS on Pivotal shows 2.66" of ice resulting from that deform band! lol eta: Actually, this is the 0Z GFS I posted. The 6Z is not nearly as impressive, bringing 0.3" of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: 6Z GFS on Pivotal shows 2.66" of ice resulting from that deform band! lol Haven't had a great chance to do this yet but this storm is screaming "chase to I-81" -- was gonna be around the Cville/Staunton area til Saturday morning before heading back north but it wouldn't take a lot of wintery precip to convince me to stay a few extra days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 36 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching and the 850s are only marginally better -- the control throws down this absolute banner of a deform band and it isn't enough to paste the cities, at least verbatim. It's fun to track this because there isn't anything else, but it has always looked like an inland/at elevation deal for snow imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol I was being sarcastic. It absolutely has to matter. It's near impossible to discern whether it's better data or simply shorter leads that adds the most accuracy. I'm a coin flip on this topic. Personally, I haven't seen much difference for years. Leads shorten and forecast improves is how I look at it. Big shifts in guidance as land based sensor data comes in has become pretty rare IME 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching Even if I don't say it, its still going to be true. The problem isn't the people pointing out the reality, its the fact its a reality. 33 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said: I fully recognize getting snow to the coast is going be very difficult in this setup, but with a 997 Low off the coast I do not buy the 0 degree line being all the way in Western PA and Finger lakes region of NY. It is still early February regardless of what kind of airmass we have here. But it's happened several times over the last few years. Most recently a couple weeks ago we had an absolutely perfect track storm that was just rain along 95. I think no one noticed because from range it was supposed to be a cutter and it had no hope of snow anyways due to temps so people stopped paying attention but over the last 72 hours it trended east and ended up an absolutely perfect track coastal low but it did no good. We had a couple of those in January and Feb 2021 also. So why are you so sure it can't happen here? I will acknowledge this is the most extreme example of all these recent events I am citing...but its also the warmest status quo airmass also so while I acknowledge there is a chance (please dont interpret this to mean I am saying there is a 0% chance of snow) I definitely do buy the possibility, if not even the likelihood, we get a perfect track driving rainstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 it is very difficult to get a snowstorm when the system is completely cut off from the northern stream with a bad antecedent airmass, no matter the time of year. this would be a major storm if there was any kind of cold air in place 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Even if I don't say it, its still going to be true. The problem isn't the people pointing out the reality, its the fact its a reality. But it's happened several times over the last few years. Most recently a couple weeks ago we had an absolutely perfect track storm that was just rain along 95. I think no one noticed because from range it was supposed to be a cutter and it had no hope of snow anyways due to temps so people stopped paying attention but over the last 72 hours it trended east and ended up an absolutely perfect track coastal low but it did no good. We had a couple of those in January and Feb 2021 also. So why are you so sure it can't happen here? I will acknowledge this is the most extreme example of all these recent events I am citing...but its also the warmest status quo airmass also so while I acknowledge there is a chance (please dont interpret this to mean I am saying there is a 0% chance of snow) I definitely do buy the possibility, if not even the likelihood, we get a perfect track driving rainstorm. You are right that I wasn't really paying attention to the example you provided from two weeks ago. Were temps forecasted to get down into the 30'S for that storm? Was that storm intensifying with a deform band the way this is modeled? I also don't recall models giving any kind of chance for snow within 7 days, till now. My reasoning is mostly that I believe a strong dynamic storm will form and pull away from Delmarva coast ENE, kind of like what Euro shows. However, if strong storm doesn't form and intensify quickly and take good track, then it will be unquestionably rain. A weak storm that takes perfect track will mean rain was well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I just want enough snow to cover the roads (yes, I know this won't be the storm to do that unless we get super lucky) or cover the grass. That's my bar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it is very difficult to get a snowstorm when the system is completely cut off from the northern stream with a bad antecedent airmass, no matter the time of year. this would be a major storm if there was any kind of cold air in place We can't get lucky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Looks like 12z Nam is not going to be as progressive this run. Closed contour over eastern OK/ western AR at hr 57. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 06z NAM at 84 had h5 low in W AL 12z NAM at 78 has h5 low in W LA Just a 200 mile difference or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said: You are right that I wasn't really paying attention to the example you provided from two weeks ago. Were temps forecasted to get down into the 30'S for that storm? Was that storm intensifying with a deform band the way this is modeled? I also don't recall models giving any kind of chance for snow within 7 days, till now. My reasoning is mostly that I believe a strong dynamic storm will form and pull away from Delmarva coast ENE, kind of like what Euro shows. However, if strong storm doesn't form and intensify quickly and take good track, then it will be unquestionably rain. A weak storm that takes perfect track will mean rain was well. As I admitted it wasn't an intense a storm as this but it would have been a 4-8" snowstorm if we had anything resembling a normal winter airmass, even a warm one by "normal" winter standards. This would be the most extreme example, but this is also the warmest airmass also, with +15 anomalies heading in and just a small pocket of dynamically cooled mix of modified PC and maritime air behind the incoming trough to work with. Yes if we get an absolute bomb with a dead perfect h5 pass, and get a meso scale band dropping summer thunderstorm type rates, we could dynamically cool and get snow. That is within the scope of possible outcomes here. But much more likely is that any one of several variables doesn't go absolutely perfectly. The h5 low track isnt perfect. We don't get an intense enough meso band. The low moves too slow and torches the thermals before it gets here. Surface cuts inland too much. There are way way way more fail scenarios than win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 12z NAM has a large bowling ball sized h5 low in the E MS/W AL region at 84 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 WB 12Z NAM at 84. I take it as a positive that it looks more intense. Will not speculate on track… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: As I admitted it wasn't an intense a storm as this but it would have been a 4-8" snowstorm if we had anything resembling a normal winter airmass, even a warm one by "normal" winter standards. This would be the most extreme example, but this is also the warmest airmass also, with +15 anomalies heading in and just a small pocket of dynamically cooled mix of modified PC and maritime air behind the incoming trough to work with. Yes if we get an absolute bomb with a dead perfect h5 pass, and get a meso scale band dropping summer thunderstorm type rates, we could dynamically cool and get snow. That is within the scope of possible outcomes here. But much more likely is that any one of several variables doesn't go absolutely perfectly. The h5 low track isnt perfect. We don't get an intense enough meso band. The low moves too slow and torches the thermals before it gets here. Surface cuts inland too much. There are way way way more fail scenarios than win. I don't dispute that there are many ways for this to fail, and probably will fail when it comes to snow. I responded to Euro control chart because it showed a 997 low, which obviously means some were hinting at a deeper low than that. There is no way a low deeper than 997 would not be tightening things up and pulling in more cold. I will be curious to see if other models trend toward stronger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z NAM at 84 had h5 low in W AL 12z NAM at 78 has h5 low in W LA Just a 200 mile difference or so It looks good? I just wish it was about 200 miles farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: It looks good? I just wish it was about 200 miles farther north I thought we didn't want to be slower... ugh I dunno lol. I just want to see blue 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I thought we didn't want to be slower... ugh I dunno lol. I just want to see blue Ok, here. 2 2 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, yoda said: I thought we didn't want to be slower... ugh I dunno lol. I just want to see blue Yeah, I don't think we won't slower. Lets see what GFS does with it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z NAM at 84. I take it as a positive that it looks more intense. Will not speculate on track… Too far south. Need that up in Tennessee And it's slower. Not a good run. Probably would be a nice deform band of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I guess we gotta realize, even in the best setup we're going to start as rain. The only question is if we stay all rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 All of this is just a preview of the storm track for next winter when the SER is going to abate due to the Nino and we'll more cold air to work with. Gotta hug something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I guess we gotta realize, even in the best setup we're going to start as rain. The only question is if we stay all rain. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 29 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said: I don't dispute that there are many ways for this to fail, and probably will fail when it comes to snow. I responded to Euro control chart because it showed a 997 low, which obviously means some were hinting at a deeper low than that. There is no way a low deeper than 997 would not be tightening things up and pulling in more cold. I will be curious to see if other models trend toward stronger system. Problem is where is it pulling the cold from??? there is no cold to tap to our north within 500 miles. The only cold is the pocket of dynamically cooled air. The slight imperfection that doomed the euro control was the slow movement and early close off of the upper low allowing us to be under easterly flow for too long. Plus by the time the system gets here it’s vertically stacked and not amplifying which is worse for dynamic cooling. Also there is a limit. We’re not asking to cool a marginal column with a wet bulb of 36 degrees. On that run the boundary is torched. It’s too much to overcome no matter how heavy the precip is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: it is very difficult to get a snowstorm when the system is completely cut off from the northern stream with a bad antecedent airmass, no matter the time of year. this would be a major storm if there was any kind of cold air in place Right from the 1997/1998 playbook, although that year there were multiple perfect storm tracks with all rain. History repeating itself 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 @stormtracker, you got the mic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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