CAPE Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: There's alot of hits on the individual members. Some are for thr southern parts of the forum and some are for western areas. Overall I thought they looked pretty damn good. Agreed. The depiction of the actual mean I think is probably close to the best outcome in this case. It would get good precip into the favored areas for frozen. The scenarios that keep the better precip more southeastward or have a weaker system overall would likely just produce rain/slop. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Looking more like a Jan 98 rainstorm for i-95 unfortunately 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I'm in VA this week. Looks like smith mtn jack east of the blue ridge. Should I post here or in the SE sub? 3 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6z euro def touch slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 LWX says guidance might swing today because s/w entering better sampled zones now. Won’t be surprised if we see something very different later today or tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Does it really matter? Heat wave prior, torch after? I hope it’s just sunny here. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: LWX says guidance might swing today because s/w entering better sampled zones now. Won’t be surprised if we see something very different later today or tonight But according to the experts here, data sampling and model changes because of that isn’t really a thing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I thought this scene last night was next level. Add 6-12" of mashed turnips and even the spirit of Bob Ross couldn't paint it ETA: this isn't our land. It's the shared lakeside landfor the 17 private properties in our "neighborhood" lol. Usually not a soul in sight. 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 hours ago, CAPE said: The 0z EPS offers the most workable scenario for snow in our general region. The evolution and track would place significant precip in the higher terrain where it could actually snow given the lack of cold. Verbatim the mean is not bad for the NW burbs either, but again, those temps. This has always been a very low probability period for frozen in the lowlands. Not liking a majority of LP's in VA/NC. Potential is there for the final shift to be inland today/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Not liking a majority of LP's in VA/NC. Potential is there for the final shift to be inland today/tomorrow. Probably more likely to shift the other way given the progressive nature of the flow and the ridge behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 0z EPS has a better h5 look at the end of the run. The big blob of +heights south of the Aleutians weakens and the ridge axis shifts eastward, with a broader trough over the central US. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But according to the experts here, data sampling and model changes because of that isn’t really a thing. Based on LWX’s AFD this morning, I think they disagree. Personally, I have no idea 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm in VA this week. Looks like smith mtn jack east of the blue ridge. Should I post here or in the SE sub? 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 the CIPS analogs are interesting, but many caveats apply of course - mainly that cold air thing. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: the CIPS analogs are interesting, but many caveats apply of course - mainly that cold air thing. So we can’t use Jan 2016? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: So we can’t use Jan 2016? I mean I'm personally using a Jan 2016 blend with a little bit of Jan 2000 and a dash of Feb 2014, but not sure that's wise. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Sorry there was no shit pbp for the last two cycles. I had uh...a lot of natural plants for that time period and I passed out around 8 But today, it's going to be rockin. Strap in for the ride 5 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 34 minutes ago, CAPE said: 0z EPS has a better h5 look at the end of the run. The big blob of +heights south of the Aleutians weakens and the ridge axis shifts eastward, with a broader trough over the central US. Smarch is happening. Book it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 This looks like a good panel on the 06z EPS. Haven't looked at the individual members yet so that I can live in a world for a little longer where this is great news. Fingers crossed. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sorry there was no shit pbp for the last two cycles. I had uh...a lot of natural plants for that time period and I passed out around 8 But today, it's going to be rockin. Strap in for the ride Wondering where you were , you got the mic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sorry there was no shit pbp for the last two cycles. I had uh...a lot of natural plants for that time period and I passed out around 8 But today, it's going to be rockin. Strap in for the ride I need some jaws music on the 12z runs please and thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: This looks like a good panel on the 06z EPS. Haven't looked at the individual members yet so that I can live in a world for a little longer where this is great news. Fingers crossed. snow mean took a solid step down - unfortunate. Pretty good for the western regions, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, Solution Man said: Wondering where you were , you got the mic Yoda did well in my stead. Just now, yoda said: I need some jaws music on the 12z runs please and thank you I want to play it so bad, but unless I can foresee the thing clearly, I can't ever pull the trigger. I had one false alarm already. I have to realize that ones of people count on that thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The WB 6Z EPS ticked NW this run. I think we are honing in on higher elevation event, but whether the NW burbs get any substantial snow is still unclear. Quick count 11 of 50 members bring snow to NW zones east of mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The WB 6Z EPS ticked NW this run. I think we are honing in on higher elevation event, but whether the NW burbs get any substantial snow is still unclear. not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching and the 850s are only marginally better -- the control throws down this absolute banner of a deform band and it isn't enough to paste the cities, at least verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching and the 850s are only marginally better -- the control throws down this absolute banner of a deform band and it isn't enough to paste the cities, at least verbatim. I fully recognize getting snow to the coast is going be very difficult in this setup, but with a 997 Low off the coast I do not buy the 0 degree line being all the way in Western PA and Finger lakes region of NY. It is still early February regardless of what kind of airmass we have here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: the CIPS analogs are interesting, but many caveats apply of course - mainly that cold air thing. Some very interesting storms in there, especially toward the top. Surprised 1/23/16 was a close match and that we didn't see January 2011 in there. 2/13/14 was in there, but I remember that having a very cold airmass ahead of it. The surprise January 2000 storm is in there. And then, I don't remember it somehow, but the 2006 storm is in there, and from what people have described about it, that seems like more of a match from an air mass standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, MD Snow said: Not liking a majority of LP's in VA/NC. Potential is there for the final shift to be inland today/tomorrow. Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 49 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Based on LWX’s AFD this morning, I think they disagree. Personally, I have no idea Lol I was being sarcastic. It absolutely has to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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