Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Not liking a majority of LP's in VA/NC. Potential is there for the final shift to be inland today/tomorrow. 

Probably more likely to shift the other way given the progressive nature of the flow and the ridge behind.

[CAPE]

0z EPS has a better h5 look at the end of the run. The big blob of +heights south of the Aleutians weakens and the ridge axis shifts eastward, with a broader trough over the central US.

[Terpeast]

32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But according to the experts here, data sampling and model changes because of that isn’t really a thing. 

Based on LWX’s AFD this morning, I think they disagree.

Personally, I have no idea

[olafminesaw]

42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm in VA this week. Looks like smith mtn jack east of the blue ridge. Should I post here or in the SE sub?

 

[NorthArlington101]

the CIPS analogs are interesting, but many caveats apply of course - mainly that cold air thing.

[LeesburgWx]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

the CIPS analogs are interesting, but many caveats apply of course - mainly that cold air thing.
 

So we can’t use Jan 2016?

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

So we can’t use Jan 2016?

I mean I'm personally using a Jan 2016 blend with a little bit of Jan 2000 and a dash of Feb 2014, but not sure that's wise.

[stormtracker]

Sorry there was no shit pbp for the last two cycles.  I had uh...a lot of natural plants for that time period and I passed out around 8

But today, it's going to be rockin.  Strap in for the ride

[WxUSAF]

34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

0z EPS has a better h5 look at the end of the run. The big blob of +heights south of the Aleutians weakens and the ridge axis shifts eastward, with a broader trough over the central US.

Smarch is happening. Book it.

[NorthArlington101]

This looks like a good panel on the 06z EPS. Haven't looked at the individual members yet so that I can live in a world for a little longer where this is great news. Fingers crossed.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Sorry there was no shit pbp for the last two cycles.  I had uh...a lot of natural plants for that time period and I passed out around 8

But today, it's going to be rockin.  Strap in for the ride

Wondering where you were , you got the mic

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Sorry there was no shit pbp for the last two cycles.  I had uh...a lot of natural plants for that time period and I passed out around 8

But today, it's going to be rockin.  Strap in for the ride

I need some jaws music on the 12z runs please and thank you

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This looks like a good panel on the 06z EPS. Haven't looked at the individual members yet so that I can live in a world for a little longer where this is great news. Fingers crossed.

snow mean took a solid step down - unfortunate. Pretty good for the western regions, though.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Wondering where you were , you got the mic

Yoda did well in my stead.  

Just now, yoda said:

I need some jaws music on the 12z runs please and thank you

I want to play it so bad, but unless I can foresee the thing clearly, I can't ever pull the trigger.  I had one false alarm already.  I have to realize that ones of people count on that thing.  

[Weather Will]

The WB 6Z EPS ticked NW this run.  I think we are honing in on higher elevation event, but whether the NW burbs get any substantial snow is still unclear.  Quick count 11 of 50 members bring snow to NW zones east of mountains.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

The WB 6Z EPS ticked NW this run.  I think we are honing in on higher elevation event, but whether the NW burbs get any substantial snow is still unclear.

not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching and the 850s are only marginally better -- the control throws down this absolute banner of a deform band and it isn't enough to paste the cities, at least verbatim.

[Blizzard Hunter]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching and the 850s are only marginally better -- the control throws down this absolute banner of a deform band and it isn't enough to paste the cities, at least verbatim.

I fully recognize getting snow to the coast is going be very difficult in this setup, but with a 997 Low off the coast I do not buy the 0 degree line being all the way in Western PA and Finger lakes region of NY. It is still early February regardless of what kind of airmass we have here. 

[osfan24]

26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

the CIPS analogs are interesting, but many caveats apply of course - mainly that cold air thing.
 

Some very interesting storms in there, especially toward the top. Surprised 1/23/16 was a close match and that we didn't see January 2011 in there. 2/13/14 was in there, but I remember that having a very cold airmass ahead of it. The surprise January 2000 storm is in there. And then, I don't remember it somehow, but the 2006 storm is in there, and from what people have described about it, that seems like more of a match from an air mass standpoint.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, MD Snow said:

Not liking a majority of LP's in VA/NC. Potential is there for the final shift to be inland today/tomorrow. 

Good

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Based on LWX’s AFD this morning, I think they disagree.

Personally, I have no idea

Lol I was being sarcastic. It absolutely has to matter.

[psuhoffman]

[Chris78]

Looks like deep creek is the place to be for this week @nj2va

[umdterps29]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Looks like deep creek is the place to be for this week @nj2va

Most of the recent GFS runs show precip barely even reaching deep creek. Could be the place to be solely due to the likelihood of there being more cold, but doesn't seem that farfetched that they could get shut out as well.

[osfan24]

24 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching and the 850s are only marginally better -- the control throws down this absolute banner of a deform band and it isn't enough to paste the cities, at least verbatim.

That should be a 2-3 inch per hour band. Instead, it's rain.

[Chris78]

10 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

Most of the recent GFS runs show precip barely even reaching deep creek. Could be the place to be solely due to the likelihood of there being more cold, but doesn't seem that farfetched that they could get shut out as well.

Eps disagrees. But yes you are correct for some of the OP runs the last few cycles

[WesternFringe]

12 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

That should be a 2-3 inch per hour band. Instead, it's rain.

6Z GFS on Pivotal shows 2.66" of ice resulting from that deform band!  lol

eta:  Actually, this is the 0Z GFS I posted.  The 6Z is not nearly as impressive, bringing 0.3" of ice

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

6Z GFS on Pivotal shows 2.66" of ice resulting from that deform band!  lol

Haven't had a great chance to do this yet but this storm is screaming "chase to I-81" -- was gonna be around the Cville/Staunton area til Saturday morning before heading back north but it wouldn't take a lot of wintery precip to convince me to stay a few extra days.

[CAPE]

36 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching and the 850s are only marginally better -- the control throws down this absolute banner of a deform band and it isn't enough to paste the cities, at least verbatim.

It's fun to track this because there isn't anything else, but it has always looked like an inland/at elevation deal for snow imo.

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol I was being sarcastic. It absolutely has to matter.

It's near impossible to discern whether it's better data or simply shorter leads that adds the most accuracy. I'm a coin flip on this topic. Personally, I haven't seen much difference for years. Leads shorten and forecast improves is how I look at it. Big shifts in guidance as land based sensor data comes in has become pretty rare IME

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching 

Even if I don't say it, its still going to be true.  The problem isn't the people pointing out the reality, its the fact its a reality.  

33 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said:

I fully recognize getting snow to the coast is going be very difficult in this setup, but with a 997 Low off the coast I do not buy the 0 degree line being all the way in Western PA and Finger lakes region of NY. It is still early February regardless of what kind of airmass we have here. 

But it's happened several times over the last few years.  Most recently a couple weeks ago we had an absolutely perfect track storm that was just rain along 95.  I think no one noticed because from range it was supposed to be a cutter and it had no hope of snow anyways due to temps so people stopped paying attention but over the last 72 hours it trended east and ended up an absolutely perfect track coastal low but it did no good.  We had a couple of those in January and Feb 2021 also.  So why are you so sure it can't happen here?  I will acknowledge this is the most extreme example of all these recent events I am citing...but its also the warmest status quo airmass also so while I acknowledge there is a chance (please dont interpret this to mean I am saying there is a 0% chance of snow) I definitely do buy the possibility, if not even the likelihood,  we get a perfect track driving rainstorm.