TSSN+ Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Best winter ever. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ji said: i know but the surface temp shouldnt be 32-33 in this type of storm. I would of thought colder aloft and warmer on the surface ha I'll have to dig up the thread but this setup also resembles storm in very late January 2017 (Jan 21st?) that relied almost exclusively on the ULL pass for heavy wet snow.. that one only really ever delivered for favored areas, and in very meager amounts at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, TSSN+ said: Best winter ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Chuck has his unique way of saying stuff... but he is right that the base state of the pac, as quantified by those "binary statistics", has contributed to an antecedent airmass that is virtually unworkable and has left us needing a freaking ridiculous solution to try to get snow here. we need the GFS Feb 18 airmass 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Sorry guys... Needless to say I won't be staying up to calculate our snow probabilities tonight. But based on the thermals on all the ops I would put them somewhere between "snowball in Miami in July and Dante's 9th level of Hell" 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: Sorry guys... Needless to say I won't be staying up to calculate our snow probabilities tonight. But based on the thermals on all the ops I would put them somewhere between "snowball in Miami in July and Dante's 9th level of Hell" i think the SSW is actually happening in the DC area-- 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: CMC looks a lot like GFS to me at first glance...We need a better track...I'm assuming this will be a dud here and I'll have to drive to elevation somewhere if I want to see snow - an idea a lot more appealing when the storm didnt coincide with the super bowl I don't know that the track matters much... the surface low takes an inside track but the storm is vertically stacked by then so we are still in the CCB there just isnt any cold, there is no snow really outside of elevation. It would help if the h5 didnt close off so soon so far south...the easterly wind ahead of it just wrecks the thermals even worse then they already are. But we're really being silly here...if this was anything close to a typical winter airmass, even a "warm" one by normal standards, that would have been a huge snowstorm on the ICON/GFS/GGEM. We need so much to go absolutely perfectly here to overcome the thermal situation...its just not realistic to expect it. Sure if we get super lucky and the thing bombs out perfectly and death bands us enough to snow great but man thats such a super rare anomalous thing to have to root for as our only hope. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i think the SSW is actually happening in the DC area-- It's my fault I farted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't know that the track matters much... the surface low takes an inside track but the storm is vertically stacked by then so we are still in the CCB there just isnt any cold, there is no snow really outside of elevation. It would help if the h5 didnt close off so soon so far south...the easterly wind ahead of it just wrecks the thermals even worse then they already are. But we're really being silly here...if this was anything close to a typical winter airmass, even a "warm" one by normal standards, that would have been a huge snowstorm on the ICON/GFS/GGEM. We need so much to go absolutely perfectly here to overcome the thermal situation...its just not realistic to expect it. Sure if we get super lucky and the thing bombs out perfectly and death bands us enough to snow great but man thats such a super rare anomalous thing to have to root for as our only hope. but then if it dosent close out till its further east--then we run the risk of the storm passing to our south and we dont snow anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't know that the track matters much... the surface low takes an inside track but the storm is vertically stacked by then so we are still in the CCB there just isnt any cold, there is no snow really outside of elevation. It would help if the h5 didnt close off so soon so far south...the easterly wind ahead of it just wrecks the thermals even worse then they already are. But we're really being silly here...if this was anything close to a typical winter airmass, even a "warm" one by normal standards, that would have been a huge snowstorm on the ICON/GFS/GGEM. We need so much to go absolutely perfectly here to overcome the thermal situation...its just not realistic to expect it. Sure if we get super lucky and the thing bombs out perfectly and death bands us enough to snow great but man thats such a super rare anomalous thing to have to root for as our only hope. Hey, would you please stop wrecking the thermals with your pessimism? Cold air can sense negativity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 20 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Hey, would you please stop wrecking the thermals with your pessimism? Cold air can sense negativity. I left my freezer open all night Damnit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 28 minutes ago, Ji said: but then if it dosent close out till its further east--then we run the risk of the storm passing to our south and we dont snow anyway Sorry I wasn’t clear. A h5 track that far south can’t work Imo. It has to not dig as deep and track more west to east just under us. Ideally closing off as it gets to the Apps just to our southwest and swinging through VA and off MD. That’s really the only way I see this working. By tracking that far south initially it puts us in a 12-24 hour period of easterly flow that obliterates an already awful airmass. That won’t work. Unless we get an adjustment back north of the h5 this is doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Sorry guys... Needless to say I won't be staying up to calculate our snow probabilities tonight. But based on the thermals on all the ops I would put them somewhere between "snowball in Miami in July and Dante's 9th level of Hell" sig material Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: Hey, would you please stop wrecking the thermals with your pessimism? Cold air can sense negativity. This cold air senses my optimism as I declare that this will be the one-in-a-billion instance where everything works out and the system bombs out right over the Mid Atlantic and you all end up wishing you had a Tahoe-magnitude snowblower, because you'll get FEET of snow with this. How's THAT for optimism? Stock up on shovels, IPA's, beer and strap yourselves in. This is gonna be EPIC! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 hours ago, Paleocene said: You do Tuesdays? We do Wednesdays. Dropping in with the boys in warzone yeet Somebody's got to defeat tyranny and save the world. We have you covered for Tuesdays, good to know you're handling Wednesdays. Anybody out there for the RoW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The 0z EPS offers the most workable scenario for snow in our general region. The evolution and track would place significant precip in the higher terrain where it could actually snow given the lack of cold. Verbatim the mean is not bad for the NW burbs either, but again, those temps. This has always been a very low probability period for frozen in the lowlands. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 WB 6Z GFS 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6z GFS an absolute nuking of the 81 corridor. @WinterWxLuvr@clskinsfan 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6z gfs is about 6 hours faster with the upper level low. Track about the same. That's why it's a little better in the snow department for us. On TT toggle back and forth between the 0z and 6z. Definitely a bit quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: The 0z EPS offers the most workable scenario for snow in our general region. The evolution and track would place significant precip in the higher terrain where it could actually snow given the lack of cold. Verbatim the mean is not bad for the NW burbs either, but again, those temps. This has always been a very low probability period for frozen in the lowlands. There's alot of hits on the individual members. Some are for thr southern parts of the forum and some are for western areas. Overall I thought they looked pretty damn good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The GFS in range has done a good job with precipitation types/ thermal profiles this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: There's alot of hits on the individual members. Some are for thr southern parts of the forum and some are for western areas. Overall I thought they looked pretty damn good. Agreed. The depiction of the actual mean I think is probably close to the best outcome in this case. It would get good precip into the favored areas for frozen. The scenarios that keep the better precip more southeastward or have a weaker system overall would likely just produce rain/slop. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Looking more like a Jan 98 rainstorm for i-95 unfortunately 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I'm in VA this week. Looks like smith mtn jack east of the blue ridge. Should I post here or in the SE sub? 3 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6z euro def touch slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 LWX says guidance might swing today because s/w entering better sampled zones now. Won’t be surprised if we see something very different later today or tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Does it really matter? Heat wave prior, torch after? I hope it’s just sunny here. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: LWX says guidance might swing today because s/w entering better sampled zones now. Won’t be surprised if we see something very different later today or tonight But according to the experts here, data sampling and model changes because of that isn’t really a thing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I thought this scene last night was next level. Add 6-12" of mashed turnips and even the spirit of Bob Ross couldn't paint it ETA: this isn't our land. It's the shared lakeside landfor the 17 private properties in our "neighborhood" lol. Usually not a soul in sight. 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 hours ago, CAPE said: The 0z EPS offers the most workable scenario for snow in our general region. The evolution and track would place significant precip in the higher terrain where it could actually snow given the lack of cold. Verbatim the mean is not bad for the NW burbs either, but again, those temps. This has always been a very low probability period for frozen in the lowlands. Not liking a majority of LP's in VA/NC. Potential is there for the final shift to be inland today/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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