stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, IronTy said: What a legend. I don't know what this means. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Everyone open your freezer doors… How much dry ice is it possible to have delivered in 4 days??? You rang? $100k/inch? Bring it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: This is kind of like trying to get a snowstorm the last week of March or first week of April. It’s possible but we need a lot to go right. But if we’re ever going to get snow this year we’re probably gonna have to get that kinda lucky. If ever a poster deserved to be 5 posted….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I don't know what this means. Me neither. I was referring to the clown map. But yeah, I'm just waiting for my PS5 to update because me and my former college roommates are pretty pathetic on Tuesday nights. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: H5 on 18z gfs looked really, really, really nice just as u said we need it a bit north It would have been a hecs run if we had a typical airmass lol. The end track was fine but the h5 digs too much and cuts off too far south initially. That’s a problem when we’re already too warm. Works out ok but required crazy banding. An easier path would be less dig initially in the h5 low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, IronTy said: Me neither. I was referring to the clown map. But yeah, I'm just waiting for my PS5 to update because me and my former college roommates are pretty pathetic on Tuesday nights. Congrats on your $5,000 purchase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It would have been a hecs run if we had a typical airmass lol. The end track was fine but the h5 digs too much and cuts off too far south initially. That’s a problem when we’re already too warm. Works out ok but required crazy banding. An easier path would be less dig initially in the h5 low. Heeeyyy, that's what I said. I got it right! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Hopefully GEFS looks as good lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Congrats on your $5,000 purchase. 5k? Walmart wants to talk to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Hopefully GEFS looks as good lol Looks bad. 1 1 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 18z Gfs was half way to a huge solution. Get that amplitude but adjust the h5 about 100 miles north and we get a paste bomb. 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I would much rather need a minor north adjustment than south in a cut off h5. I actually feel ok about that variable. If I had to bet money on what is the most likely fail scenario it would be the system just isn’t amplified enough to induce the dynamic cooling we need. Right. Get this damned thing as dynamic as possible. Or more "exotic", as @brooklynwx99 worded it the other day! I know this is a very low probability event and extremely marginal. So what the heck...might as well go big or go home here, not like we have anything to lose right now. Get that thing to be as dynamic as possible and hope maybe we get the paste job, but if it's rain, whatever...that's probably more likely anyhow. But I'll root for the slight chance this could actually be interesting. I know mentioning March 6, 2013 is banned, much like Boxing Day 2010 (see what I did there? I just committed 2 sins in one sentence mentioning those events hahaha!). But this is in some ways similar or reminiscent. We got screwed on that because the upper low was too far south, and got alternating white rain and rain all day long. It sucked. Meanwhile, the area outside Richmond scored big because they were right in line with the best dynamics (which was supposed to be more up in this area originally). As I recall, that was likewise a very marginal event that depended upon rates and strong dynamic cooling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Good to see you posting Wes, even if the run was bad 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 47 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Well, after I’ve already made weekend plans with the family, the models start showing some interesting things… Please don’t cancel those weekend plans and if anyone buys a shovel they need to be banned 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I would much rather need a minor north adjustment than south in a cut off h5. I actually feel ok about that variable. If I had to bet money on what is the most likely fail scenario it would be the system just isn’t amplified enough to induce the dynamic cooling we need. Considering the past 45 days over Va/Maryland I must agree. This threat as advertised by the 18z GFS will not verify because intensification will be insufficient to produce the needed amount of dynamic cooling for snow outside of higher elevations if at all. Please Dear God, let me be wrong. This pattern must break at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Going to be a useful next 3 days now that inside 4 days and an easier to handle non phase job low. Want Norfolk at 40 and not 45 during crunch time and a 30.15 over us Isnt suppressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Please don’t cancel those weekend plans and if anyone buys a shovel they need to be banned What's a shovel? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 18 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Please don’t cancel those weekend plans and if anyone buys a shovel they need to be banned Yeah and we don't care if the shovel you have is busted up and hanging off the handle...if anybody gets one you're walkin' the snowboard! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Good thing I said I would not pay attention to the ensembles anymore for the weekend storm. GEFS ticked south and east…and not as intense. We are still a couple days out from the final solution but best GFS happy hour run in a long time… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Da mean fwiw 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Looks like we're in the "let's hope for a NW trend" portion of the program. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I would much rather need a minor north adjustment than south in a cut off h5. I actually feel ok about that variable. If I had to bet money on what is the most likely fail scenario it would be the system just isn’t amplified enough to induce the dynamic cooling we need. Now a first glance it appears to be either amped and it hits us or less amped/more progressive and it gets suppressed...but you're saying there's another scenario where it's just kinda amped (and not enough) for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, 87storms said: Looks like we're in the "let's hope for a NW trend" portion of the program. Nah. Still locked in the perpetual 'we completely suck for snow' portion. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonTownT Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah and we don't care if the shovel you have is busted up and hanging off the handel...if anybody gets one you're walkin' the snowboard! May I suggest no storm thread either. A new LR thread can be created just as easily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Only snow storm misses us to the south is very on script for this winter lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Nah. Still locked in the perpetual 'we completely suck for snow' portion. Lol. I'm actually more concerned about the cold chasing precip portion of this than the NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, TowsonTownT said: May I suggest no storm thread either. A new LR thread can be created just as easily. I say we need to keep this thread. It’s actually the late February thread, so maybe we can fake out whatever is trying to keep us from getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Need to sneak and reel this snowstorm in while it isn't looking 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 The high moves offshore too quickly, that's why the storm produces less snow as you go further northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: Nah. Still locked in the perpetual 'we completely suck for snow' portion. To paraphrase Master Shifu from "Kung Fu Panda"... "When you focus on snow, when you concentrate...you stink!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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