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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This is kind of like trying to get a snowstorm the last week of March or first week of April. It’s possible but we need a lot to go right. But if we’re ever going to get snow this year we’re probably gonna have to get that kinda lucky. 

If ever a poster deserved to be 5 posted…..

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3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

H5 on 18z gfs looked really, really, really nice

just as u said we need it a bit north

It would have been a hecs run if we had a typical airmass lol.  The end track was fine but the h5 digs too much and cuts off too far south initially. That’s a problem when we’re already too warm. Works out ok but required crazy banding. An easier path would be less dig initially in the h5 low. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It would have been a hecs run if we had a typical airmass lol.  The end track was fine but the h5 digs too much and cuts off too far south initially. That’s a problem when we’re already too warm. Works out ok but required crazy banding. An easier path would be less dig initially in the h5 low. 

Heeeyyy, that's what I said.  I got it right!

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 18z Gfs was half way to a huge solution. Get that amplitude but adjust the h5 about 100 miles north and we get a paste bomb. 

 

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would much rather need a minor north adjustment than south in a cut off h5. I actually feel ok about that variable. If I had to bet money on what is the most likely fail scenario it would be the system just isn’t amplified enough to induce the dynamic cooling we need.  

Right.  Get this damned thing as dynamic as possible.  Or more "exotic", as @brooklynwx99 worded it the other day!:lol:  I know this is a very low probability event and extremely marginal.  So what the heck...might as well go big or go home here, not like we have anything to lose right now.  Get that thing to be as dynamic as possible and hope maybe we get the paste job, but if it's rain, whatever...that's probably more likely anyhow.  But I'll root for the slight chance this could actually be interesting.

I know mentioning March 6, 2013 is banned, much like Boxing Day 2010 (see what I did there?  I just committed 2 sins in one sentence mentioning those events hahaha!).  But this is in some ways similar or reminiscent.  We got screwed on that because the upper low was too far south, and got alternating white rain and rain all day long.  It sucked.  Meanwhile, the area outside Richmond scored big because they were right in line with the best dynamics (which was supposed to be more up in this area originally).  As I recall, that was likewise a very marginal event that depended upon rates and strong dynamic cooling.

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would much rather need a minor north adjustment than south in a cut off h5. I actually feel ok about that variable. If I had to bet money on what is the most likely fail scenario it would be the system just isn’t amplified enough to induce the dynamic cooling we need.  

Considering the past 45 days over Va/Maryland I must agree. This threat as advertised by the 18z GFS will not verify because intensification will be insufficient to produce the needed amount of dynamic cooling for snow outside of higher elevations if at all.

Please Dear God, let me be wrong. This pattern must break at some point.

 

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26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would much rather need a minor north adjustment than south in a cut off h5. I actually feel ok about that variable. If I had to bet money on what is the most likely fail scenario it would be the system just isn’t amplified enough to induce the dynamic cooling we need.  

Now a first glance it appears to be either amped and it hits us or less amped/more progressive and it gets suppressed...but you're saying there's another scenario where it's just kinda amped (and not enough) for snow?

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