stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: this would be heartbreaking...if the heavy snow turned back to heavy rain as storm goes away. thats 6 inches more if it stays snow Check the soundings to make sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Check the soundings to make sure. Ends as light rain on WB. TT ptype is awful for a snow weenie lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ji said: this would be heartbreaking...if the heavy snow turned back to heavy rain as storm goes away. thats 6 inches more if it stays snow Pivotal has it as heavy snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: Ends as light rain on WB. TT ptype is awful for a snow weenie lol. Yup, that panel he posted is heavy snow on pivotal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Soundings at DCA from 126 to precip ends around 135 are snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: i like this panel very much As the GFS depicts it, this setup seems akin to a warmer Jan 2011.. WAA that flips to rain that becomes heavy as the ULL gets going, then dumping snow as the ULL passes (all at 32-34F). The main difference is that the Jan 2011 setup had some solid west coast ridging and blocking before the storm, and ofc it's a synoptic anomaly. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Wow, hell of a run and solution. That would be crazy to watch going from heavy rain to heavy snow as the H5 low comes north. How do we maximize this and get true bullseye all around for the area? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Check the soundings to make sure. Need to get the bowling ball just a little further north. 850s cold enough south of us. Paste job for sure. Reminds me Of January 2011. I believe there was a mix/rain during the day and then a dynamic pasting in the evening. Took me 5 hours to get home on 70 that night between Frederick and Hagerstown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: As the GFS depicts it, this setup seems akin to a warmer Jan 2011.. WAA that flips to rain that becomes heavy as the ULL gets going, then dumping snow as the ULL passes. The main difference is that the Jan 2011 setup had some solid west coast ridging and blocking before the storm, and ofc it's a synoptic anomaly. it'd be really funny if we were able to pull off a storm in the worst possible pattern. +NAO/+AO and MJO phase 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Well, after I’ve already made weekend plans with the family, the models start showing some interesting things… 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 WB 18Z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Type of system you see in late March/Early April. Gotta be lucky and get under the best CCB band. Best shot up towards mountains and high elevations of VA right now I’d guess. There were some EPS members that had this type of solution. Snow fall output from this run does mimic eps placement to a degree, we also saw ukie bring it up the coast. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Type of system you see in late March/Early April. Gotta be lucky and get under the best CCB band. Best shot up towards mountains and high elevations of VA right now I’d guess. There were some EPS members that had this type of solution. Snow fall output from this run does mimic eps placement to a degree, we also saw ukie bring it up the coast. . ICON also tried to bring it up the coast at the end of it's 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 ICON also tried to bring it up the coast at the end of it's 18z runWe def take vs seeing this run go farther S/weaker, that’s for sure. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, Heisy said: Type of system you see in late March/Early April. Gotta be lucky and get under the best CCB band. Best shot up towards mountains and high elevations of VA right now I’d guess. There were some EPS members that had this type of solution. Snow fall output from this run does mimic eps placement to a degree, we also saw ukie bring it up the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 47 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: It's not that hard to get snow on February 11th. We need a lot less right than in the last week of March. Normally of course not. But normally this isn’t what an antecedent airmass looks like on Feb 11th. My point was the actual airmass we have to work with right now is more typical of March 25th than Feb 11. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Looks like the big hit camp is getting bigger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: We def take vs seeing this run go farther S/weaker, that’s for sure. . Yeah we'll have to see if things are converging into two camps progressive/weak/south, or amped and dynamic. I'll happily dice roll with the ladder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Got to smell the rain to get the best snow…. With our luck this winter, there will be heavy snow in Pittsburgh on Sunday and 70 here with thunderstorms but we need a bombshell low with marginal temperatures…. Livin on the edge!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I mean things are at least getting real in here now. I better make a beer run. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I don't trust the GFS. First it de-gifted snow, then it re-gifted, and now it's trying to use an upper-level trough as a springboard to a Superbowl sleet romp!!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 23 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: it'd be really funny if we were able to pull off a storm in the worst possible pattern. +NAO/+AO and MJO phase 4 Climates getting like Societies getting; what's up is down, Downs up. Right's wrong, wrong's right 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 WOW! No words for the 18z. With the 12Z EPS showing some big hits hoping we can start reeling this one in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, paulythegun said: I don't trust the GFS. First it de-gifted snow, then it re-gifted, and now it's trying to use an upper-level trough as a springboard to a Superbowl sleet romp!!! epic, epic sig 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Jebman said: epic, epic sig Cheer it on Jeb !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 The 18z Gfs was half way to a huge solution. Get that amplitude but adjust the h5 about 100 miles north and we get a paste bomb. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I would much rather need a minor north adjustment than south in a cut off h5. I actually feel ok about that variable. If I had to bet money on what is the most likely fail scenario it would be the system just isn’t amplified enough to induce the dynamic cooling we need. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The 18z Gfs was half way to a huge solution. Get that amplitude but adjust the h5 about 100 miles north and we get a paste bomb. H5 on 18z gfs looked really, really, really nice just as u said we need it a bit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 35 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Pivotal has it as heavy snow What a legend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Everyone open your freezer doors… How much dry ice is it possible to have delivered in 4 days??? 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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