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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


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22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

i like this panel very much

1676257200-NZu4pjCFe2A.png

As the GFS depicts it, this setup seems akin to a warmer Jan 2011.. WAA that flips to rain that becomes heavy as the ULL gets going, then dumping snow as the ULL passes (all at 32-34F). The main difference is that the Jan 2011 setup had some solid west coast ridging and blocking before the storm, and ofc it's a synoptic anomaly. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Check the soundings to make sure.

Need to get the bowling ball just a little further north.  850s cold enough south of us. Paste job for sure.

Reminds me Of January 2011. I believe there was a mix/rain during the day and then a dynamic pasting in the evening. Took me 5 hours to get home on 70 that night between Frederick and Hagerstown. 

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

As the GFS depicts it, this setup seems akin to a warmer Jan 2011.. WAA that flips to rain that becomes heavy as the ULL gets going, then dumping snow as the ULL passes. The main difference is that the Jan 2011 setup had some solid west coast ridging and blocking before the storm, and ofc it's a synoptic anomaly. 

it'd be really funny if we were able to pull off a storm in the worst possible pattern. +NAO/+AO and MJO phase 4

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Type of system you see in late March/Early April. Gotta be lucky and get under the best CCB band. Best shot up towards mountains and high elevations of VA right now I’d guess. There were some EPS members that had this type of solution.

Snow fall output from this run does mimic eps placement to a degree, we also saw ukie bring it up the coast.


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1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Type of system you see in late March/Early April. Gotta be lucky and get under the best CCB band. Best shot up towards mountains and high elevations of VA right now I’d guess. There were some EPS members that had this type of solution.

Snow fall output from this run does mimic eps placement to a degree, we also saw ukie bring it up the coast.


.

ICON also tried to bring it up the coast at the end of it's 18z run

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14 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Type of system you see in late March/Early April. Gotta be lucky and get under the best CCB band. Best shot up towards mountains and high elevations of VA right now I’d guess. There were some EPS members that had this type of solution.

Snow fall output from this run does mimic eps placement to a degree, we also saw ukie bring it up the coast.
 

 

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47 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

It's not that hard to get snow on February 11th.  We need a lot less right than in the last week of March.  

Normally of course not.  But normally this isn’t what an antecedent airmass looks like on Feb 11th. 
F61C7B9A-BE6B-48BE-A32B-4B900A2A9A6F.thumb.png.e5b910f7e8c319000057840982cd3237.png

My point was the actual airmass we have to work with right now is more typical of March 25th than Feb 11. 

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