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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Is that all we need? :) At least we have something to actually talk about for once. 

Yea.  I think most of us have been around long enough and seen enough to look at this and see what it is...a super long shot but a non zero chance in an otherwise shit the blinds period so we are keeping an eye on it because WTF there is nothing else to talk about other then crazy speculation about March.  

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4 minutes ago, Heisy said:


That’s to be expected since all the 12z models now have the closed low…unfortunately problem is latitude and progressive flow.


.

Yea its "better" but the upper low mean track is through NC, we really need it to be through southern VA.  We can't afford any easterly flow given the already problematic thermals.  

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12z snow probabilities for BWI including all 3 ensembles

1": 18%

3": 15%

6": 8%

 

The relatively close spread between 1/3/6" is expected given the all or nothing dynamic nature of this event.  Overall odds improved from 8% to 18% from 0z to 12z so this was a move we needed to even be in the game at all.  We need to see continued improvements but given the very marginal thermals not sure we would ever get this into the high probability range until very short range since ultimately to work we need some luck with banding features and that is never going to be a high probability thing on guidance.

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6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

all told, that was a great EPS run. exactly what i wanted to see

It was a definite improvement.  It kept this in the "worth bothering to keep an eye on" category for another day.  But I dunno... I reserve "great" for something more than a run that says we have a 20% chance of snow.  But if we're grading on a curve this year maybe.  

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4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

It’s moving in the right direction, right??

At this point, I am watching the Global models. The ensembles carry less weight as we move under five days.  At least we have something to track other than 300 hour 500 MB maps, and speculative stratwarm and MJO effects in three weeks.

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9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I count 19/50 members that have a trackable storm somewhere in the subforum - hardly a consensus but as others have already said, surely a net positive run.

epsgif.thumb.gif.6476ba249f9d167a7d980b7afb7b5dec.gif

Man what a refreshing animation to see, ESP coming from the Euro. Can’t remember the last time 50/60/70 probs were down this way. Still will believe it when I see it Friday night and it’s still showing it..

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38 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Looks pretty intriguing 

It does. Follow the track of the upper low. We need that to swing through VA just south of us.  That’s key 1. Without that nothing else matters. The primary surface low is irrelevant since the only way we snow is with dynamic cooling under the upper low.  Get the h5 low to cut through southern VA and then we just have to hope it’s amplified enough and we get lucky with meso banding to dynamically cool enough. 

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