psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Is that all we need? At least we have something to actually talk about for once. Yea. I think most of us have been around long enough and seen enough to look at this and see what it is...a super long shot but a non zero chance in an otherwise shit the blinds period so we are keeping an eye on it because WTF there is nothing else to talk about other then crazy speculation about March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 EPS 12z. I can't see snow, but 0.25" -0.5" QPF across the area as this thing passes; temps look iffy to say the least Versus 00z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 EPS is much improved from 06z at 500mb 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 12z EPS looks better than 6z to my eyes, at least in regards to the vort pass... maybe not the other things we need off @psuhoffman's list 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 EPS is much improved from 06z at 500mbThat’s to be expected since all the 12z models now have the closed low…unfortunately problem is latitude and progressive flow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 hmm. this looks quite nice 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, Paleocene said: EPS 12z. I can't see snow, but 0.25" -0.5" QPF across the area as this thing passes; temps look iffy to say the least Versus 00z I'll post them when it comes out in a few mins 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: That’s to be expected since all the 12z models now have the closed low…unfortunately problem is latitude and progressive flow. . there’s a pretty notable NW lean here. much, much improved from 06z 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 00z 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Yeah. Thats digging a lot more. Lets hope we continue to see that trend as we go forward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 all told, that was a great EPS run. exactly what i wanted to see 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: That’s to be expected since all the 12z models now have the closed low…unfortunately problem is latitude and progressive flow. . Yea its "better" but the upper low mean track is through NC, we really need it to be through southern VA. We can't afford any easterly flow given the already problematic thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 It's definitely better. A long way to go but certainly enough of a step in the right direction to march forward to 18z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I count 19/50 members that have a trackable storm somewhere in the subforum - hardly a consensus but as others have already said, surely a net positive run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 12z snow probabilities for BWI including all 3 ensembles 1": 18% 3": 15% 6": 8% The relatively close spread between 1/3/6" is expected given the all or nothing dynamic nature of this event. Overall odds improved from 8% to 18% from 0z to 12z so this was a move we needed to even be in the game at all. We need to see continued improvements but given the very marginal thermals not sure we would ever get this into the high probability range until very short range since ultimately to work we need some luck with banding features and that is never going to be a high probability thing on guidance. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: all told, that was a great EPS run. exactly what i wanted to see It was a definite improvement. It kept this in the "worth bothering to keep an eye on" category for another day. But I dunno... I reserve "great" for something more than a run that says we have a 20% chance of snow. But if we're grading on a curve this year maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: It’s moving in the right direction, right?? At this point, I am watching the Global models. The ensembles carry less weight as we move under five days. At least we have something to track other than 300 hour 500 MB maps, and speculative stratwarm and MJO effects in three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I count 19/50 members that have a trackable storm somewhere in the subforum - hardly a consensus but as others have already said, surely a net positive run. Man what a refreshing animation to see, ESP coming from the Euro. Can’t remember the last time 50/60/70 probs were down this way. Still will believe it when I see it Friday night and it’s still showing it.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Navgem is amped up 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Why do the NAM panels load at the speed of dark? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Why do the NAM panels load at the speed of dark? We looking at the NAM already?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 here is the meteogram for BWI from the EPS… multiple significant snowfalls on there 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: We looking at the NAM already?? You got something else to do between now and the GFS? At any rate, looks good so far! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Navgem is amped upKind of does a Ukie track. It’s all rain though, not that I’d care about thermals on a Nogaps hah. Where’s Ralph with the CRASS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You got something else to do between now and the GFS? At any rate, looks good so far! 18z h5 looks better with it stronger than the 12z run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Looks pretty intriguing 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 19 minutes ago, Heisy said: Kind of does a Ukie track. It’s all rain though, not that I’d care about thermals on a Nogaps hah. Where’s Ralph with the CRASS . Even if that scenario came true, I would expect a changeover to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 38 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Looks pretty intriguing It does. Follow the track of the upper low. We need that to swing through VA just south of us. That’s key 1. Without that nothing else matters. The primary surface low is irrelevant since the only way we snow is with dynamic cooling under the upper low. Get the h5 low to cut through southern VA and then we just have to hope it’s amplified enough and we get lucky with meso banding to dynamically cool enough. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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