WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Do we really want a flush hit this far out? Congrats Cleveland sort of thing in the end? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 not going to lie, this looks very good. definitely more amped than the GFS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Unless it can get captured, looks like the evolution of the other models. Still plenty of time for changes obv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Looks better than the Gfs/cmc to me so far. More like ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: not going to lie, this looks very good. definitely more amped than the GFS It misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: It misses Any snow to our south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Unless it can get captured, looks like the evolution of the other models. Still plenty of time for changes obv. You’re out further than me so I’ll shut up. It looked better to me at like 90 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, yoda said: Any snow to our south lol Nothing like the GFS...looks like white rain down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Like Winterwx said, do we really want a flush hit this early? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It misses honestly, I'm not too bummed about that given the synoptic improvements from 00z. the EPS will be interesting in half an hour or so if they make the same changes. there were already some pretty nice members at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Do we really want a flush hit this far out? Congrats Cleveland sort of thing in the end? It's not that far out anymore...we are well inside the range now where guidance has been pretty good at beginning to hone in on the track. This is not to say adjustments wont happen and especially in a delicate situation like this...but we aren't 200 hours out where its likely to shift 500 miles anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I'm just surprised this reappeared at all. Probably will disappear again tonight... but I'm interested lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: honestly, I'm not too bummed about that given the synoptic improvements from 00z. the EPS will be interesting in half an hour or so if they make the same changes. there were already some pretty nice members at 06z We've got something to track within 120 hours. That, in and of itself, is cause for celebration! lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Like Winterwx said, do we really want a flush hit this early? Obviously no science in this post, but I was just thinking that our chances are slim now. But if it was a flush hit today, I’d say the chances would be slimmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks better than the Gfs/cmc to me so far. More like ukmet See this is what happens when you try to be positive, you end up looking like a fool. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Definitely has some shoving north to do - really identical with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Need that negative tilt. That's just too positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Need that negative tilt. That's just too positive. Oh, there’s plenty of negativity in here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: We've got something to track within 120 hours. That, in and of itself, is cause for celebration! lol Yeah it's Tuesday and it hasn't gone poof yet? We golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Suppression or shunting does not worry me as a 30.15-30.20 baro is more perfection than suppression 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Now we wait for the King of Them All: NASA GEOS-5. Last night's run for comparison purposes: 1 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 WB 12Z EURO…. no comment. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO…. no comment. It’s moving in the right direction, right?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO…. no comment. Right where we want it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's not that far out anymore...we are well inside the range now where guidance has been pretty good at beginning to hone in on the track. This is not to say adjustments wont happen and especially in a delicate situation like this...but we aren't 200 hours out where its likely to shift 500 miles anymore. It doesn’t have to shift 500 miles. Trough is marginally steeper, or 75 miles farther west, 75 miles deeper and it’s a different scenario totally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 25 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Need that negative tilt. That's just too positive. The main thing we need is for it to track through southern VA not SC. But yes then we also need it to be more amplified and the colder solutions to be more correct and the moon to be aligned with Venus and Neptune while the solar energies are low, 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 There’s nothing to talk about without precip. That’s a story ended there. If we want it here, that 500 trough has to either be deeper, sharper or sooner. Why did we not get snow last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It doesn’t have to shift 500 miles. Trough is marginally steeper, or 75 miles farther west, 75 miles deeper and it’s a different scenario totally. I was exaggerating. The 3 main things we need are for the system to be more amplified than the euro/gfs/cmc show at 12z, for the upper feature to track about 200 miles north of where it is on the 12z guidance and then hope we get deformed to death enough to dynamically cool the otherwise putrid boundary and mid level thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There’s nothing to talk about without precip. That’s a story ended there. If we want it here, that 500 trough has to either be deeper, sharper or sooner. Why did we not get snow last week? There was a huge ridge over us which made the flow between it and the TPV to our north impossibly suppressive. If there had been a trough in the east we might have been able to work with one of those waves...but with that ridge everything had to try to ride over it which put it right into the confluence/shred factory. I know the point you are trying to make wrt precip but its more complicated than that. The setup was all wrong regardless of the precip. With that ridge where it was the only way we could get cold enough was to have that TPV right on top of that and that also made precip impossible. Had there been precip it meant the flow relaxed and it would have probably been rain. You aren't wrong, but its only half the equation. We need both equally. If the only way to be cold enough is to have so much suppression you can't get precip that wont work. This is a totally different setup though, and it could work if we get a strong enough storm to take a perfect track, long shot as it is. But not sure we want the trough deeper...we have no antecedent cold, we wont survive an amplified system to our south pumping easterly winds here. We need the H5 low to track west to east just under us. I don't see any other way for this to work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was exaggerating. The 3 main things we need are for the system to be more amplified than the euro/gfs/cmc show at 12z, for the upper feature to track about 200 miles north of where it is on the 12z guidance and then hope we get deformed to death enough to dynamically cool the otherwise putrid boundary and mid level thermals. Is that all we need? At least we have something to actually talk about for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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