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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Do we really want a flush hit this far out? 
 

Congrats Cleveland sort of thing in the end?

It's not that far out anymore...we are well inside the range now where guidance has been pretty good at beginning to hone in on the track.  This is not to say adjustments wont happen and especially in a delicate situation like this...but we aren't 200 hours out where its likely to shift 500 miles anymore.  

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

honestly, I'm not too bummed about that given the synoptic improvements from 00z. the EPS will be interesting in half an hour or so if they make the same changes. there were already some pretty nice members at 06z

We've got something to track within 120 hours. That, in and of itself, is cause for celebration! lol

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's not that far out anymore...we are well inside the range now where guidance has been pretty good at beginning to hone in on the track.  This is not to say adjustments wont happen and especially in a delicate situation like this...but we aren't 200 hours out where its likely to shift 500 miles anymore.  

It doesn’t have to shift 500 miles. Trough is marginally steeper, or 75 miles farther west, 75 miles deeper and it’s a different scenario totally.

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25 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Need that negative tilt. That's just too positive.

The main thing we need is for it to track through southern VA not SC.  But yes then we also need it to be more amplified and the colder solutions to be more correct and the moon to be aligned with Venus and Neptune while the solar energies are low,

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It doesn’t have to shift 500 miles. Trough is marginally steeper, or 75 miles farther west, 75 miles deeper and it’s a different scenario totally.

I was exaggerating.  The 3 main things we need are for the system to be more amplified than the euro/gfs/cmc show at 12z, for the upper feature to track about 200 miles north of where it is on the 12z guidance and then hope we get deformed to death enough to dynamically cool the otherwise putrid boundary and mid level thermals.  

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There’s nothing to talk about without precip. That’s a story ended there. If we want it here, that 500 trough has to either be deeper, sharper or sooner. 
 

Why did we not get snow last week?

There was a huge ridge over us which made the flow between it and the TPV to our north impossibly suppressive.  If there had been a trough in the east we might have been able to work with one of those waves...but with that ridge everything had to try to ride over it which put it right into the confluence/shred factory.  I know the point you are trying to make wrt precip but its more complicated than that.  The setup was all wrong regardless of the precip.  With that ridge where it was the only way we could get cold enough was to have that TPV right on top of that and that also made precip impossible.  Had there been precip it meant the flow relaxed and it would have probably been rain.  

 

You aren't wrong, but its only half the equation.  We need both equally.  If the only way to be cold enough is to have so much suppression you can't get precip that wont work.  This is a totally different setup though, and it could work if we get a strong enough storm to take a perfect track, long shot as it is.  But not sure we want the trough deeper...we have no antecedent cold, we wont survive an amplified system to our south pumping easterly winds here.  We need the H5 low to track west to east just under us.  I don't see any other way for this to work.  

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was exaggerating.  The 3 main things we need are for the system to be more amplified than the euro/gfs/cmc show at 12z, for the upper feature to track about 200 miles north of where it is on the 12z guidance and then hope we get deformed to death enough to dynamically cool the otherwise putrid boundary and mid level thermals.  

Is that all we need? :) At least we have something to actually talk about for once. 

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