anotherman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Im gonna be a Deb...If anyone thinks this scenario is gonna work out, I got a pair of Tom Bradys crapped stained underwear to sell ya. Dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 well, it turns out that the GEFS is actually improved from 06z. go figure 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 significant uptick in precip across the board. there have got to be some good members in here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: significant uptick in precip across the board. there have got to be some good members in here for posterity: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 12z UKIE 7 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Cobalt said: 12z UKIE Ukie has the canonical track…500mb low cruises along the Va/NC border. No cold air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: 12z UKIE Funny. I would bet strongly more snow would stick than shown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: 12z UKIE that is a possibility, but the UKMET has been known to have absolutely horrific thermals. I would take my chances with a dynamic solution like this 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 that is a possibility, but the UKMET has been known to have absolutely horrific thermals. I would take my chances with a dynamic solution like thisit’ll make its own cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Let's see what Lord Euro does. I agree, with a positive trough, this thing has OTS/washed out potential, but I wouldn't mind having something that's chase-able (something that's been lacking all season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: it’ll make its own cold air? this is probably the only time I will ever say something like that is possible. but yes, if you do have that strong of a closed low, dynamic cooling does occur. it's not voodoo or anything like this is a sounding from NC where the GFS drops 6-10". that's more than cold enough and that's in the Carolinas. cutoffs do really weird crap so yes, I would absolutely take my chances with a ULL like that. the amped solutions are what everyone should be rooting for, because there is a 0% chance with a washed out POS 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is probably the only time I will ever say something like that is possible. but yes, if you do have that strong of a closed low, dynamic cooling does occur. it's not voodoo or anything like this is a sounding from NC where the GFS drops 6-10". that's more than cold enough and that's in the Carolinas. cutoffs do really weird crap so yes, I would absolutely take my chances with a ULL like that. the amped solutions are what everyone should be rooting for, because there is a 0% chance with a washed out POS Would have been fun having forums around for Feb 21, 1987. I know via the KU book (which I did purchase because snowstorms...) that was a bombogenesis type of event with fringe temps and ended up being an absolute paste job for the DMV. I'll never forget seeing the size of the flakes out my window (at night). It can happen (kinda like Commutageddon), but pretty uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is probably the only time I will ever say something like that is possible. but yes, if you do have that strong of a closed low, dynamic cooling does occur. it's not voodoo or anything like this is a sounding from NC where the GFS drops 6-10". that's more than cold enough and that's in the Carolinas. cutoffs do really weird crap so yes, I would absolutely take my chances with a ULL like that. the amped solutions are what everyone should be rooting for, because there is a 0% chance with a washed out POS Thanks for the response, and I 1000% agree. Just don't want to end up relying on too many weenie rules at once. North trend from the Carolinas and dynamic cooling are already 2... don't know how many more we can handle 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Thanks for the response, and I 1000% agree. Just don't want to end up relying on too many weenie rules at once. North trend from the Carolinas and dynamic cooling are already 2... don't know how many more we can handle trust me, everyone should understand that this is a low-probability event due to a lack of blocking and no arctic air and blah blah blah. but it's nice to have something to track regardless... this certainly bears some watching 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 41 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said: This idea that it will only snow in a perfect setup is stretching things. It just improves our odds. If a dynamic system forms to our south, then all bets are off. Do I think such a storm will develop? I don't think so. However, if models keep showing one developing, we need to pay attention. Why does everything have to be extremes? When someone say's they don't think it will work that does not mean it has no chance at all. There is always a chance. But its about probabilities. We don't forecast based on "maybe if we win the lottery of weather". Look at the preponderance of evidence. The only solutions that show snow each run are the most extreme solutions. The fringe outliers. It's been that way for days with this threat. It was one run of the ICON, then one euro run got kinda close...there was on CMC run a few days ago and more recently the GFS op. Within the ensembles there are like a few members showing snow. The vast majority of evidence says it won't snow. Maybe because the track isn't good (12z GFS/CMC) or maybe the track ends up perfect but its still too warm (UKMET and a few Euro runs). But if you add up all the possible fails (not perfect track, too warm, H5 isn't amplified enough) the probability it doesn't work is way higher than if it does. That's not saying it cant work out...its just making astute observations of the situation. 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that is a possibility, but the UKMET has been known to have absolutely horrific thermals. I would take my chances with a dynamic solution like this Of course we want that, its the only way we have any chance at all... but we've seen way too many near perfect track rain solutions over the last few days on this to just ignore that with a "give me that track and it will work out" attitude. It could work out...or it could be too warm. Add in that we might not even get the perfect track and an amplified enough h5 cut off and the odds still greatly favor this not working out. That's all the "debs" are saying imo. Not that it has no chance, and not that it will never snow again. Ill run the probabilities for anyone interested once all the ensembles come in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Why does everything have to be extremes? When someone say's they don't think it will work that does not mean it has no chance at all. There is always a chance. But its about probabilities. We don't forecast based on "maybe if we win the lottery of weather". Look at the preponderance of evidence. The only solutions that show snow each run are the most extreme solutions. The fringe outliers. It's been that way for days with this threat. It was one run of the ICON, then one euro run got kinda close...there was on CMC run a few days ago and more recently the GFS op. Within the ensembles there are like a few members showing snow. The vast majority of evidence says it won't snow. Maybe because the track isn't good (12z GFS/CMC) or maybe the track ends up perfect but its still too warm (UKMET and a few Euro runs). But if you add up all the possible fails (not perfect track, too warm, H5 isn't amplified enough) the probability it doesn't work is way higher than if it does. That's not saying it cant work out...its just making astute observations of the situation. Of course we want that, its the only way we have any chance at all... but we've seen way too many near perfect track rain solutions over the last few days on this to just ignore that with a "give me that track and it will work out" attitude. It could work out...or it could be too warm. Add in that we might not even get the perfect track and an amplified enough h5 cut off and the odds still greatly favor this not working out. That's all the "debs" are saying imo. Not that it has no chance, and not that it will never snow again. Ill run the probabilities for anyone interested once all the ensembles come in. I appreciate your post, but I don't understand why it is directed at me? I was not the one who said there was no chance of anything working out. I was arguing that a Dynamic system changes the rules a bit. -What triggered my response to the other gentleman was he made it seem like there was no chance. Perhaps I misunderstood, but that is why I responded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Dont worry guys, the euro will save us 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 What a loss with the 12Z. I guess I'm just going to have to drink alone dreaming about the glory days. Maybe I'll watch my HS track videos or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Dont worry guys, the euro will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Next window appears to be around PD. Boundary pressing S while waves ride the gradient. Let's go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 While we wait... GEPS is a step in the right direction. Went from one interesting member at 00z to ~5 at 12z. 12z 00z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Dont worry guys, the euro will save us What was that Doctors name again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What was that Doctors name again? Middle initial F, last name No 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What was that Doctors name again? Fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Well, strap in and prepare yourselves. PBP incoming. Tamp down the excitement. Maybe I'll finally get to Jaws it up. I admit, I'm interested with 3 runs in a row. Have we even had 3 runs in a row showing the same thing or similar when it comes to a storm for us? If they are trying for something closer to an A type off the coast then they zero in better then all the components of a far trickier phase job B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Still waiting for the EPS but the combined probabilities for 1” at BWI from the GEPS and GEFS is 18% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Doing side by side comparisons between GFS and Euro and they are remarkable consistent thru hour 60.. The relevant time period is after 90 or so hour 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Doing side by side comparisons between GFS and Euro and they are remarkable consistent thru hour 60.. The relevant time period is after 90 or so hour the ECMWF is even the strongest of the 3 major models with the S/W. the CMC is the weakest... I would imagine that the strength even at 60 makes a big difference. doubt it's as flat as the CMC at this range tho 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 87 hours basically the same, but the EURO trof is a l more open than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 through 102, not quite as progressive as the GFS 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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