stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Ji said: i see changes..a bit flatter and more east. Not huge but any slight negative change can be a disaster These occurred after. my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Yeah, it looks like it's gonna slide south/east of us. We need a rapid capture at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: still developing the closed low, but seems more progressive It’s suppressed and OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, it looks like it's gonna slide south/east of us See what you done did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I'm still counting this as a win 1 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, WxUSAF said: It’s suppressed and OTS Like a stronger version of the ICON, basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, it looks like it's gonna slide south/east of us That was fun while it lasted lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, WxUSAF said: It’s suppressed and OTS Sure does. Oh well. This is something that can easily change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I'm still counting this as a win That’s how far we’ve sunk lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sure does. Oh well. This is something that can easily change Well I was a bit premature. Not OTS so much as too far south. Just becomes a cutoff low. And loses what meager cold air source it was working with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Perhaps models beginning to meet in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s how far we’ve sunk lol Considering I've grown up during the past 7 years, I count pretty much anything as a win. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Central NC pummeled!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 17 minutes ago, LP08 said: Some minor changes through 72. Touch flatter out front and bit less negatively tilted trough. 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So far, no changes on the GFS through 81 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Paleocene said: Central NC pummeled!!! Solid dusting watch for DC, its even more than the "snow" we got Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 @psuhoffmanmight disagree lol. Last 4 runs of the gfs show a storm and I take it as a win The last 2 have a 996 low to the south of us. Pretty close agreement with its last 2 runs in the placement. Good consistency for 5 days out IMO. If the low is further north it's snowing on us. Better than tracking 60 degrees in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Central NC pummeled!!! I’ll take my chances 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll take my chances I second this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Solid dusting watch for DC, its even more than the "snow" we got Wednesday. Pretty sure NC is not going to get a 17" snowstorm 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Need more data, better sampling, plane flights, Chinese weather balloons. Git r done 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Im gonna be a Deb...If anyone thinks this scenario is gonna work out, I got a pair of Tom Bradys crapped stained underwear to sell ya. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Im gonna be a Deb...If anyone thinks this scenario is gonna work out, I got a pair of Tom Bradys crapped stained underwear to sell ya. I agree that the scenario depicted by the 12Z GFS is not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I’m gonna go with an early forecast of mostly sunny, 100% chance of snow, high temp of 60, blizzard conditions, flash flood warning. All for Sunday. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzard Hunter said: I agree that the scenario depicted by the 12Z GFS is not going to happen. I'm just talking in general...we need good setups and things to work out near perfectly to begin with but this seems like a scenario that is a bit far fetched and the stars need to align. Upper low to closed and bomb enough to create its own cold air layer somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Baltimorewx said: I'm just talking in general...we need good setups and things to work out near perfectly to begin with but this seems like a scenario that is a bit far fetched and the stars need to align. Upper low to closed and bomb enough to create its own cold air layer somewhere. This idea that it will only snow in a perfect setup is stretching things. It just improves our odds. If a dynamic system forms to our south, then all bets are off. Do I think such a storm will develop? I don't think so. However, if models keep showing one developing, we need to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I'm just talking in general...we need good setups and things to work out near perfectly to begin with but this seems like a scenario that is a bit far fetched and the stars need to align. Upper low to closed and bomb enough to create its own cold air layer somewhere. Agree, now want me me tell you how this ends for ya? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Cmc also tries but ends up south and east. Probably doesn't work out in the end but atleast it's something to track. I have zero expectations we see snow over the weekend so if we do I'll be delighted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 CMC is similar to the GFS with the progressive OTS look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Chris78 said: Cmc also tries but ends up south and east. Probably doesn't work out in the end but atleast it's something to track. I have zero expectations we see snow over the weekend so if we do I'll be delighted. Yeah, I honestly think it'll work out like the CMC which doesnt show that ridiculous snow in NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: CMC is similar to the GFS with the progressive OTS look It is but it's alot better than it's previous 2 runs. Maybe a meeting in the middle which wouldn't do us any good unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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