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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


Ji
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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol, clown maps.  18-20.  Snow depth 2 to 4

i think this would actually stick to everything verbatim. absolutely dumping at 32-33? yup

what a wild evolution. I mean, it's certainly weird, but if it keeps showing up I can't totally throw it out. it's like a late March storm

2019972407_gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23(1).thumb.png.efc99ab6915775cd30e4dcccbd68b524.pnggfs_T2m_neus_24.thumb.png.0e3ab0f8accfe4ca68e36c69d4255c58.png

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i think this would actually stick to everything verbatim. absolutely dumping at 32-33? yup
what a wild evolution. I mean, it's certainly weird, but if it keeps showing up I can't totally throw it out. it's like a late March storm
2019972407_gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23(1).thumb.png.efc99ab6915775cd30e4dcccbd68b524.pnggfs_T2m_neus_24.thumb.png.0e3ab0f8accfe4ca68e36c69d4255c58.png

There was a Feb storm in 87 or 88. 14 inches fell with temps at 35. Fell at night though . Was also a Sunday storm


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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Models are headed the wrong way tho. Look upstairs and 850, not jist the surface. This is almost totally rate dependent and we don't do complicated rate dependent very well. A chance, but slim.

i know what you're saying, but this is a super dynamic evolution verbatim and would produce legit deform banding

but yes, I agree, this would be tough to pull off. but certainly doable!

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh102-144.thumb.gif.c5007d83389a7aaf94ae75d3a658a27d.gif

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Models are headed the wrong way tho. Look upstairs and 850, not jist the surface. This is almost totally rate dependent and we don't do complicated rate dependent very well. A chance, but slim.

The only reason it’s even snow is because it’s so dynamic. Of course it’s rate dependent. Shades of Jan 2011 lol?


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6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i know what you're saying, but this is a super dynamic evolution verbatim and would produce legit deform banding

but yes, I agree, this would be tough to pull off. but certainly doable!

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh102-144.thumb.gif.c5007d83389a7aaf94ae75d3a658a27d.gif

In a winter where even the most favorable setups have failed we are now relying on a most unorthodox setup to deliver the goods. I'll probably observe cautiously from the sidelines for now but if we get more than 1 model on board and get this under 72 hrs I might get interested. This is a pretty delicate setup, but I'm sure you already know this.

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In a winter where even the most favorable setups have failed we are now relying on a most unorthodox setup to deliver the goods. I'll probably observe cautiously from the sidelines for now but if we get more than 1 model on board and get this under 72 hrs I might get interested. This is a pretty delicate setup, but I'm sure you already know this.

I’m interested. It’s the only threat that has been interesting in the 120 hour range


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8 minutes ago, Ji said:


I’m interested. It’s the only threat that has been interesting in the 120 hour range


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I'm rooting for a hail Mary here like most everyone else. But realistically it would still take some fairly dramatic adjustments on the other guidance  (Euro/CMC/ICON) and merely one or 2 minor changes on the gfs to drop this look. Of course I'm skeptical but don't get that confused with pessimistic either. GFS needs support and we've seen the gfs on its own island too many times this season around this range. 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s going to snow in our most flawed window. Typical


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You know thats exactly how the one threat this winter will unfold whether it turns out to be this one where all models bow to the gfs unlike every other system OR some oddball fluke window in the 2nd half of March. I agree, that's how we end up cashing in this year.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm rooting for a hail Mary here like most everyone else. But realistically it would still take some fairly dramatic adjustments on the guidance that middle (Euro/CMC/ICON) and merely one or 2 minor changes on the gfs to drop this look. Of course I'm skeptical but don't get that co fused with pessimistic either. GFS needs support and we've seen the gfs on its own island too many times this season around this range. 

Euro was sniffing yesterday at 12z and backed off at 00z,  now GFS full blown on board. We've been down this road. I need another 48 hours before buying. Rate dependent storm, call me Thomas for now.

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You know thats exactly how the one threat this winter will unfold whether it turns out to be this one where all models bow to the gfs unlike every other system OR some oddball fluke window in the 2nd half of March. I agree, that's how we end up cashing in this year.

I don’t think March will be flukish. Even the most anti weenie Twitter Mets are acknowledging a major saw coming. I could see us getting a foot storm in March with temps in 20s haha


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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Models are headed the wrong way tho. Look upstairs and 850, not just the surface. This is almost totally rate dependent and we don't do complicated rate dependent very well. A chance, but slim.

I think the fact that its still there on the GFS is a win in itself. Yes, the details would need to be worked out, it could just rain on us at 35 degrees, but the threat is still there. 

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