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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


Ji
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WB 2.6 EURO weeklies perhaps a last hurrah late February into mid March so don’t give up yet…
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SSW reaction puts us around mid March for affects. So probably see some blocking potentially show up around then.

Also, for this next potential event I put it at like 1% happening. Need the perfect thread the needle with a bombing low getting cutoff from the flow because the airmass is such garbage. It will at least keep my interest during 00z

There were maybe 3-4 eps members that had some snow for us.


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The Fri-Sat event has too many ways to fail, so I am pessimistic on snow chances outside of elevated interior regions, at least for now. However, a lot of Mets and amateurs drop the ball as forecasters because they obsess over long range anomaly charts, ENSO states, and the search for the mythical pattern change. Snowstorms are local phenomena that occur due to very specific, random interactions of synoptic features. They cannot be forecast reliably very far out in the future. If you keep scouring fantasy range for the perfect setup, you will miss the potential event hiding in plain sight.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

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In all seriousness, I’m glad to see the muted reaction to this.  There is 100% chance that this upcoming 0z run will look totally different. It’s a mirage.  Like all the others. And no this ain’t reverse psychology, it’s reality and you all know it.   

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4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

ICON says it's a legitimate chance of some showers for the Carolina's. Partly cloudy and around 50 for us. 

A decaying cutoff in the southeast is a definite possibility as well. It has been part of the ensemble spread for a day now and the delayed shortwave progression is trending towards it. But this scenario also leaves open the possibility of some cold-side precipitation further up the coast.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man I wish that High to the north had stayed there like the last run...would've looked exactly like it otherwise. But same general evolution as 18z it appears...just a little less cold/dynamic.

?  The maps showed 8 to 10" dude.  We know it's bullshit, but still

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1 hour ago, Heisy said:


SSW reaction puts us around mid March for affects. So probably see some blocking potentially show up around then.

Also, for this next potential event I put it at like 1% happening. Need the perfect thread the needle with a bombing low getting cutoff from the flow because the airmass is such garbage. It will at least keep my interest during 00z

There were maybe 3-4 eps members that had some snow for us.


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Cohen then says most of the time the cold blob bounces back to the polar region, but overshoots the North Pole and shifts into the eastern U.S. He finds this timing of cold air arrival is about two weeks after the SSW.

If this scenario plays out, colder-than-normal air would return to the eastern U.S. and Michigan around the end of February or beginning of March

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17 minutes ago, Heisy said:

CMC almost tries to pull same thing but ULL can’t get going and trough is a little too progressive. Icon has a gfs progression, but doesn’t have nearly enough juice with left over energy. Let’s get some support from ukie or euro tonight


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Yeah the CMC was a definite improvement aloft compared to the past several runs. But a blend with the GFS would likely pinch off and miss southeast. An EC solution anywhere close to the GFS would be huge - would go a long way towards making some wintry precipitation seem possible. Any significant negative trend the next two cycles and this is probably dead.

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Ukie closes off the ULL well behind the lead front. Is well S though and only shows in the apps….still lends some credit towards a possible GFS solution. We would need to thread the needle here almost perfectly…

Actually more favorable in S mid Atlantic on GEFS (remember factor in potential surface temps here)

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Unfortunately rjvanals was right about the surface.  It’s 34-37 across the area during the height of the snow. The depth map looks a lot worse for a reason. Yes 6-10” falls but at 35-36 degrees not much will accumulate. 
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The real reason this is such a long shot is given the thermal reality we need the most extreme solutions, and even they are underwhelming, to have any shot. It’s not hopeless sometimes the extreme does happen. But in my experience when we need the most anomalous outcome in any setup to be correct it rarely works out.  

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