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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


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As it's Super Bowl weekend, my GUESS is that a ton of folks who don't already live there are going to be at the West Virginia ski resorts. I'm going to be in Davis, WV, myself. After total decimation of the snowpack by warm winds Thursday, worth watching the quick hit from the 2nd wave plus some short-lived upslope snow Saturday.

God Bless Lake Erie being melted. slight enhancement of upslope moisture. 

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6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Hr 324 lol on GFS

The only way to get cold enough with a 560+ ridge over us is for such extreme confluence and suppressive flow that a shredded result is the most likely outcome. We went through this game last week. By far the most likely outcomes are a cutter or suppressed. And guidance was jumping back and forth and some though that was good because we just needed a compromise but that’s not how it works. 

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The only way to get cold enough with a 560+ ridge over us is for such extreme confluence and suppressive flow that a shredded result is the most likely outcome. We went through this game last week. By far the most likely outcomes are a cutter or suppressed. And guidance was jumping back and forth and some thought that was good because we just needed a compromise but that’s not how it works. 

Yeah, that’s how we rolling this Winter

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5 hours ago, paulythegun said:

As it's Super Bowl weekend, my GUESS is that a ton of folks who don't already live there are going to be at the West Virginia ski resorts. I'm going to be in Davis, WV, myself. After total decimation of the snowpack by warm winds Thursday, worth watching the quick hit from the 2nd wave plus some short-lived upslope snow Saturday.

God Bless Lake Erie being melted. slight enhancement of upslope moisture. 

Just skied Timberline this past Saturday. Conditions were stellar! Weather was perfect. Hope you get some love after Thursdays torch. And don’t forget to drink local. Stumptown Ales rock! B)

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19 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Yes, yes we do.  The radio still works and it’s clear as a bell don’t ask me why

lol i was driving with my daughter down in virginia this weekend and we passed a car that was beat to complete shit and i said do you feel this vehicle is safe for highway travel and my daughter gave me the yes i do, yes i really do...i can't remember being prouder 

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28 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Just skied Timberline this past Saturday. Conditions were stellar! Weather was perfect. Hope you get some love after Thursdays torch. And don’t forget to drink local. Stumptown Ales rock! B)

Co-worker of mine has a dudes' weekend for the Super Bowl every year. They're going to Davis this year, so I told them to drop into Stumptown.

Now...if only I could find a way to get there sometime. :lol:

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro nearly gets it done for Saturday…but those surface temps :yikes:

Why you teasing them?  Lol. This is why Ive been so confident we’re screwed all winter. The status quo temp profile is so warm that even on runs when almost everything goes perfect it’s still rain. Euro barely gives me like 2” of slop up here on a run with a perfect everything that should be a 6”+ easy.  
 

The only times we’ve been cold enough all winter was twice when a tpv was cruising by just to our north. But good luck getting something to work in that kind of flow. 
 

I think that’s one part some aren’t getting. If the temp profile is so atrocious that the only way to be cold enough is to have a tpv or some ridiculed amount of confluence right on top of us…ya ok. That’s not gonna work. We need to be cold enough when those features are actually further away giving waves room to amplify. 

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Why you teasing them?  Lol. This is why Ive been so confident we’re screwed all winter. The status quo temp profile is so warm that even on runs when almost everything goes perfect it’s still rain. Euro barely gives me like 2” of slop up here on a run with a perfect everything that should be a 6”+ easy.  
 
The only times we’ve been cold enough all winter was twice when a tpv was cruising by just to our north. But good luck getting something to work in that kind of flow. 
 
I think that’s one part some aren’t getting. If the temp profile is so atrocious that the only way to be cold enough is to have a tpv or some ridiculed amount of confluence right on top of us…ya ok. That’s not gonna work. We need to be cold enough when those features are actually further away giving waves room to amplify. 

Uhhh….. major changes on 18z gfs. Looks like icon, stronger version of 12z euro
768071603e78b1aec5a35063b680bdec.jpg


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I noticed the 12z Ukie did something similar but didn’t leave enough energy with ULL to create anything… 18z icon kind of had same progression as well…

Temps are gonna be an issue regardless. Looks like instead of diving into the trough the NS races ahead and you get the shortwave kind of pinned underneath everything

Definite thread the needle…

5e8f8730f2255e3c7ea52749c4d7c19d.jpg
5446fed19d8e729dd863bc89220bb407.jpg


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Just now, Heisy said:

I noticed the 12z Ukie did something similar but didn’t leave enough energy with ULL to create anything… 18z icon kind of had same progression as well…

Temps are gonna be an issue regardless. Looks like instead of diving into the trough the NS races ahead and you get the shortwave kind of pinned underneath everything

Definite thread the needle…

5e8f8730f2255e3c7ea52749c4d7c19d.jpg
5446fed19d8e729dd863bc89220bb407.jpg


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12z Euro hinted at this

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4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I noticed the 12z Ukie did something similar but didn’t leave enough energy with ULL to create anything… 18z icon kind of had same progression as well…

Temps are gonna be an issue regardless. Looks like instead of diving into the trough the NS races ahead and you get the shortwave kind of pinned underneath everything

Definite thread the needle…

5e8f8730f2255e3c7ea52749c4d7c19d.jpg
5446fed19d8e729dd863bc89220bb407.jpg


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It is an interesting idea and potential, which has shown up at that time now and then.  I'm not overly enthused right now, but, well, I guess it bears watching.  WTF else have we got, right?!?!

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the GFS has a pretty exotic evolution... it amplifies the trailing energy to the point that it cuts off from the flow and crushes the MA. wouldn't say that this is impossible, but I obviously want to see other models see this kind of thing

definitely caught me off guard though. was NOT expecting to see this

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh96-144.thumb.gif.5d87767a1532d0a29fb9bc9504c51aad.gif

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23.thumb.png.ae4e2d37fd0dbb894f9351b0db507466.png

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GFS has a pretty exotic evolution... it amplifies the trailing energy to the point that it cuts off from the flow and crushes the MA. wouldn't say that this is impossible, but I obviously want to see other models see this kind of thing

definitely caught me off guard though. was NOT expecting to see this

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh96-144.thumb.gif.5d87767a1532d0a29fb9bc9504c51aad.gif

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23.thumb.png.ae4e2d37fd0dbb894f9351b0db507466.png

We haven’t been able to do easy or hard, maybe we can score with ‘exotic’. I mean why the fuck not!

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