Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread

[WxUSAF]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

The disrupted Strat PV Hail Mary!! for March.

Then it would need to couple to the troposphere and result in a significant -AO to be useful. Running out of time.

Going to be right in time for those 40F deform band rainstorms in late March!

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Going to be right in time for those 40F deform band rainstorms in late March!

just waiting to see if psuhoff has comments for you too. 

[Ji]

Going to be right in time for those 40F deform band rainstorms in late March!

Feb 20 to March 10 is always full of potential. Better than December


.

[87storms]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Developing El Nino summers are typically crappy in the east.  Usually increased TSTM activity which can be interesting but generally below normal.  

I feel like AN precip/BN temps would make friends with most people on the board (I'm assuming that's what you meant).  I'm not rooting for it to be hot.  My threshold is usually 95, but my preference is upper 70s lol.

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I feel like AN precip/BN normal temps would make friends with most people on the board (I'm assuming that's what you meant).  I'm not rooting for it to be hot.  My threshold is usually 95, but my preference is upper 70s lol.

I’ll take a BN summer if we get interesting severe. Not like last year

[MDstorm]

In like a lion 

[Kevin Reilly]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Developing El Nino summers are typically crappy in the east.  Usually increased TSTM activity which can be interesting but generally below normal.  

If I recall in the past these summers, you talk about are hot and dry and drought like.  Thunderstorms during these summers come so far south before lifting north and hitting a stronger than usual Bermuda High.

[Maestrobjwa]

Because the map ain't blue

It makes me cryyyyyyy-y

Because the map isn't blu-u-u-u-u-u-u-u....

(Name that song reference )

[Ji]

Because the map ain't blue

It makes me cryyyyyyy-y

Because the map isn't blu-u-u-u-u-u-u...

(Name that song reference )

Please log off till Feb 15th lol

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Because the map ain't blue

It makes me cryyyyyyy-y

Because the map isn't blu-u-u-u-u-u-u...

(Name that song reference )

Please log off till Feb 15th lol

Feb 15th? Nah if we don't have potential somewhat locked in for PD weekend by that time that may be the date I log OFF, lol

[psuhoffman]

@Maestrobjwa that’s rain. And that’s why talking about anything other than temps is a waste of time. Yea on a particular run the track might be imperfect. Or the high isn’t right. Or the storm is too weak. Too strong. Not enough confluence. Too much confluence. Whatever. But it doesn’t matter because even if everything goes damn near perfect it’s still too warm.  Yea if we get lucky timing up a wave perfectly exactly during one of the 3 cold days we’ve had sure it could snow.  But pretending that’s the problem is silly. So why would I waste time analyzing all that other crap when the real problem is it’s just too warm to snow. 

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa that’s rain. And that’s why talking about anything other than temps is a waste of time. Yea on a particular run the track might be imperfect. Or the high isn’t right. Or the storm is too weak. Too strong. Not enough confluence. Too much confluence. Whatever. But it doesn’t matter because even if everything goes damn near perfect it’s still too warm.  Yea if we get lucky timing up a wave perfectly exactly during one of the 3 cold days we’ve had sure it could snow.  But pretending that’s the problem is silly. So why would I waste time analyzing all that other crap when the real problem is it’s just too warm to snow. 

Hey I don't think we disagree on the too warm part, actually...but maybe we oughta transfer this to the other thread though. I get what you're saying here though--it is just too warm (hey that can summarize all your paragraphs )

[Ralph Wiggum]

40 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey I don't think we disagree on the too warm part, actually...but maybe we oughta transfer this to the other thread though. I get what you're saying here though--it is just too warm (hey that can summarize all your paragraphs )

The Euro isn't too warm. 

[CAPE]

The ens means have backed off over recent runs on any notable improvement in the longwave pattern for the long range. Hints of NAO help have disappeared for now, and the AO also remains positive. The atmospheric block that persists is the one we don't want, and not seeing signs of it weakening or shifting in a meaningful way at this point. There will be transient cold-ish shots behind cutters over the next couple weeks, so our best shot at frozen will probably be a well timed shortwave in the wake. Inland areas at elevation obviously have the best chance at lucking into something.

[Weather Will]

12Z ICON too progressive, too far south east, but not a cutter….and a little snow for eastern areas. GFS has nothing for the weekend.

[eduggs]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z ICON too progressive, too far south east, but not a cutter….and a little snow for eastern areas.

 

The panels between 141hr and 168hr are not showing up on TT, but there is some snow between those time periods for much of the urban corridor. It's a little warm so not confident about accumulations. But it's a better wintry threat than we've had in a while. And the GFS, CMC, EC, and UK are also modestly threatening of some potential.

[stormtracker]

10 more days. Just 10 more.

[WesternFringe]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

10 more days. Just 10 more.

I know you are joking, but to be fair, that super bowl “threat” is only 7 days away!  Lol

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

I know you are joking, but to be fair, that super bowl “threat” is only 7 days away!  Lol

Yeah, but I honestly don't see it as a threat.  Maybe something will change.  Maybe the Euro will show something.  I remain doubtful.

At this point, I'm just over it.  Might as well be warm/early spring if we're not getting snow.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, but I honestly don't see it as a threat.  Maybe something will change.  Maybe the Euro will show something.  I remain doubtful.

At this point, I'm just over it.  Might as well be warm/early spring if we're not getting snow.

Yessir, I’m done.  Bring on the 60s.  Of course I won’t say no to snow but it looks fairly hopeless so may as well be outside enjoy early spring with the kids! 

[eduggs]

UK looks interesting. ICON has a little snow. GFS and CMC are disjointed but all show a high amplitude trof with low heights in the southeast. That's one way to get snow in the mid-Atl during a warm regime. Yes we're all fighting an uphill battle due to the antecedent warmth. But the OP runs and ensemble spread do offer some hope that is not out in fantasy land. Midrange, trackable potential hasn't materialized often this winter. Yes it's a low likelihood threat, but it's more viable than almost any day 5.5 threat we've had all winter.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

UK looks interesting. ICON has a little snow. GFS and CMC are disjointed but all show a high amplitude trof with low heights in the southeast. That's one way to get snow in the mid-Atl during a warm regime. Yes we're all fighting an uphill battle due to the antecedent warmth. But the OP runs and ensemble spread do offer some hope that is not out in fantasy land. Midrange, trackable potential hasn't materialized often this winter. Yes it's a low likelihood threat, but it's more viable than almost any day 5.5 threat we've had all winter.

Good synopsis, but we all know how this will end.

[Blizzard Hunter]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Good synopsis, but we all know how this will end.

It's gotten so bad that I will consider it a win if the models still suggest measurable snow for a couple more days, until the inevitable shift to the west and warmth. 

[eduggs]

12z GEFS looks like the best run in a while: weaker, more suppressed initial wave, more separation, sharper, and higher amplitude follow-up wave, and more precipitation along the coastal plain on Saturday. I'm not trying to overhype this threat. Expectations should be kept low. But I see more here than most of the other "threats" we've seen this Dec-Jan period. I've been shitting on almost every setup all winter, but this looks slightly different to me.

If I had to bet, I'd expect this evolves into either an inland, elevated wintry threat or a late developing miss to the east. As usual, so many things have to go right. But at least this time we can imagine a theoretical path to a win.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

10 more days. Just 10 more.

Yep it’s a very very very difficult issue to absorb 

Always just around the corner 

 

[eduggs]

The 12z EC looked like a positive tick to me, which follows the inter-model trends. Gets snow to the distant NW suburbs. Still pretty far off, however.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 12z EC looked like a positive tick to me, which follows the inter-model trends. Gets snow to the distant NW suburbs. Still pretty far off, however.

Whatever the upside here (if there is any), it's clear the models are having difficulty with exactly how the pieces are interacting here. Would expect some jumping around still for another day or two.

[eduggs]

43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Whatever the upside here (if there is any), it's clear the models are having difficulty with exactly how the pieces are interacting here. Would expect some jumping around still for another day or two.

Agreed. It's always difficult to accurately model anomalous events involving multiple shortwaves. The inter and intra-model spread does suggest more model jumping likely. I'm just happy to see the snow threat hasn't completely evaporated at this range like just about every "event" so far this year. The mean chances for 1" or 3" of snow are probably very low throughout the east coast coastal plain. But on the other hand, the high end is probably something like a 12-18 hour snow bomb somewhere along the mid-Atl coast. Maybe 1 in 20 chance of that or less. But at least some of the ingredients that make it remotely plausible are there.

[fujiwara79]

I think there's a reasonable chance that parts of northern MD and the exurbs get a couple inches of slop next weekend.  

[87storms]

Doesn't look like the GFS will get it done.  Not enough spacing between these systems and not a lot of cold air to work with.  These high pressure systems up top seem to have been too transient.  Need more time for those long, clear nights to develop the kind of cold we need to not have to work so hard for snow lol.  Still a trackable system, though...and 5-6 days out.