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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


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45 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think in general that's more of a nina thing. But yes the GL low ruins weenie dreams...it's just what it does, lol

It's a general symptom of a not so good pattern. When we have a favorable pattern (NA block) there is a tendency for more HP around the lakes into eastern Canada(lower heights east of there), with disturbances approaching from the SW. What we are dealing with lately is largely the antithesis.

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It's a general symptom of a not so good pattern. When we have a favorable pattern (NA block) there is a tendency for more HP around the lakes into eastern Canada(lower heights east of there), with disturbances approaching from the SW. What we are dealing with lately is largely the antithesis.

Yea for this system to work out as advertised we would probably need that lead wave to disrupt the flow and have the main one dig far enough S. Thing is there’s no blocking leading up to it so it will likely be more progressive then some models showing. Long shot, but ya never know


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I’ll be in Ohio from 2/10-2/13 for Super Bowl weekend. It’s a yearly tradition where a bunch of my childhood friends get together just outside Toledo. That will be the weekend it finally snows here, watch! I got lucky when I went up to Albany and Rochester a few weeks back. Doubt it happens a third time. So, book it, between 2/10-2/13 we see an east coast snowstorm.


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0z GEFS has the cutter late next week, then there are a handful of members that suggest coastal low development for next weekend. 3 or 4 manage to snow on us. Weak signal for frozen.

EPS depicts a more clearly defined separation between the late week storm and a developing coastal low just beyond that. A good chunk of the members suggest trailing energy along the boundary, while others have some sort of secondary development from the lead system. Temps look very marginal on the mean until after most of the precip exits. Modest signal for frozen outside of the western higher terrain.

1676116800-tJzBMVGhGbQ.png

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12 hours ago, CAPE said:

It's a general symptom of a not so good pattern. When we have a favorable pattern (NA block) there is a tendency for more HP around the lakes into eastern Canada(lower heights east of there), with disturbances approaching from the SW. What we are dealing with lately is largely the antithesis.

Classic example. Maybe someday we will see this setup again.

Composite Plot

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35 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Instead, I think we need 15 pages (in 9 different threads) explaining why that will apparently never happen ever again. ;) 

That example was from a pattern that produced a KU, but many of the significant snow events for the MA lowlands have that general look. More recent example is the March 2018 storm.

eta- also an example of HP being 'locked in place' , vs a progressive flow regime where HP is steadily moving as the area of upper level convergence/confluence that induced it moves with the flow. Need even more luck with timing.

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14 hours ago, Heisy said:


Yea for this system to work out as advertised we would probably need that lead wave to disrupt the flow and have the main one dig far enough S. Thing is there’s no blocking leading up to it so it will likely be more progressive then some models showing. Long shot, but ya never know


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Blocking is not a full on requirement for it to snow in the MA.  Do we need it for a HECS? Sure.  But it snows all the time this time of the year just as it is advertised on GFS.  One thing I do like is that the spread on the ensemble members show a lot of lows to our south.   I think it might be having a hard time differentiating btw the first system and the second one, however the trend on the 6z was south, with a big trough digging in to the southeast part of the country..  if the 12Z runs continue that trend, we will have a nice snow storm to track.
image.thumb.png.da59d8b672178ed31a39a25be4d9dcb2.png

Has anyone post the ensemble member snowfall maps?

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