Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Seemed like there should have been a better CCB with the coastal low?  Or am I misreading?

maybe, that feature can be inconsistent and difficult to predict...the real issue was why did we lose the WAA to rain with a track like that.  Relying on getting deformed to death is never how you want to roll.  

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

maybe, that feature can be inconsistent and difficult to predict...the real issue was why did we lose the WAA to rain with a track like that.  Relying on getting deformed to death is never how you want to roll.  

Now in terms WAA precip...I mean we did get snow from that just two years ago, right? Of course it benefited the western half of the forum more because of where the banding set up, but if it worked just two years ago...hopefully that part isn't broken, lol

[yoda]

Yes its weenie land... but that would be an epic gut punch at 300-312

[Ji]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Glass half full version: would be a nice little event, especially given this winter 

Glass half empty:  why is a track off the coast with a perfect H5 pass in the snowiest period of our climo resulting in a mix event where DC loses half the precip to rain and is in the upper 30's until the low passes by and we get under the CCB.  We lose pretty much all the WAA precip to rain.  

 

because we are still in a shitty pattern. This is like an oasis in a desert type thing

[Ji]

models keep giving us and taking away snow FEb 12-14...where there is smoke......

[Paleocene]

I'll bet real money that either of those storms between 200-300 hours out will be modeled as cutters by monday

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now in terms WAA precip...I mean we did get snow from that just two years ago, right? Of course it benefited the western half of the forum more because of where the banding set up, but if it worked just two years ago...hopefully that part isn't broken, lol

I answered you in the other thread because that discussion could easily take us down that other path we want to avoid here.  

[mappy]

20 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

I'll bet real money that either of those storms between 200-300 hours out will be modeled as cutters by monday

whaaaaatttt. no way.  

[Maestrobjwa]

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

because we are still in a shitty pattern. This is like an oasis in a desert type thing

That's my thinking too...Give me a winter where we aren't AN temps most days...think that would be a better test case to see where we are. Sure in the past we could've overcome that, but the net result would be a few more inches, and rarely would we get over our median amount in such winters. Although...I would like to see a comparison of this winter's temp profile with previous ones that may have snowed more.

[Snowproblem]

Eventually we will get snow and the clowns who are constantly hyping every day 15 threat will claim victory. 

I don’t get the hate for JB2. He wants snow just like we all do and readily admits it.

His headlines may be a bit “clickbaity” but if you actually read his posts I don’t think he unnecessarily hypes snow. He lays out the possibilities of what would have to happen just like many folks do in these long range threads.


.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Snowproblem said:

I don’t get the hate for JB2. He wants snow just like we all do and readily admits it.

His headlines may be a bit “clickbaity” but if you actually read his posts I don’t think he unnecessarily hypes snow. He lays out the possibilities of what would have to happen just like many folks do in these long range threads.
 

 

[pazzo83]

ding ding ding

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Glass half full version: would be a nice little event, especially given this winter 

Glass half empty:  why is a track off the coast with a perfect H5 pass in the snowiest period of our climo resulting in a mix event where DC loses half the precip to rain and is in the upper 30's until the low passes by and we get under the CCB.  We lose pretty much all the WAA precip to rain.  

 

I'm going with glass half full

[stormtracker]

Euro and GFS couldn't be more different at H5 through 135 hr

[mattie g]

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro and GFS couldn't be more different at H5 through 135 hr

GFS and the Canadian look much more alike at that time.

[87storms]

Was looking at the last couple runs of the GFS and at least via the Op, it looked like the main difference was how it handled the Pac energy midweek.  For whatever reason, the 12z GFS being flatter with that wave led to a better downstream outcome.

[WesternFringe]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro and GFS couldn't be more different at H5 through 135 hr

They look very, very similar at 96 hrs. They start diverging from there and have notable, significant differences by 120 hrs that increase moving forward in time.

[stormtracker]

Euro cooking up something at 198.  Looks warmish tho

[stormtracker]

Yup, rainstorm

[stormtracker]

Where's a spoon so I can gouge my eyes out

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Where's a spoon so I can gouge my eyes out

This work?

[mattie g]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro cooking up something at 198.  Looks warmish tho

When you've got a 1015 L pushing into western Kentucky, there's no way a 1041 H in southern Quebec can withstand it.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

When you've got a 1015 L pushing into western Kentucky, there's no way a 1041 H in southern Quebec can withstand it.

no blocking

[WEATHER53]

Couple of guys from back around 2005 will remember this

Joe B was an emerging star. Very enthusiastic he went for couple big events and nailed them and quickly garnered an increasing following

Then came the Vodka Cold debacle where, whatever year it was, from mid December to mid February he continually touted the Vodka Cold pouring into eastern USA in just 10-15 days. It never happened and many temperature predictions ended up off by over 20 degrees. That began the ending of my model interest beyond 7 days which continues to this day.

Now in 2006-07 the advertised pattern change did come in Feb and a good job was done in 2009/10 correctly predicting a return to cold and snow after a tepid January.  So, a job really well done twice in 15 years.  Can’t take those numbers to the bank 

 

[fujiwara79]

I think the vodka cold debacle was the winter of 2001-2.  JB's luster was fading well before that.

[HighStakes]

Just now, fujiwara79 said:

I think the vodka cold debacle was the winter of 2001-2.  JB's luster was fading well before that.

Yes it was 2001/2002. 

[Ji]

JB was amazing in 2002-2003. He didnt miss an any snowstorms

[Wonderdog]

30 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Couple of guys from back around 2005 will remember this

Joe B was an emerging star. Very enthusiastic he went for couple big events and nailed them and quickly garnered an increasing following

Then came the Vodka Cold debacle where, whatever year it was, from mid December to mid February he continually touted the Vodka Cold pouring into eastern USA in just 10-15 days. It never happened and many temperature predictions ended up off by over 20 degrees. That began the ending of my model interest beyond 7 days which continues to this day.

Now in 2006-07 the advertised pattern change did come in Feb and a good job was done in 2009/10 correctly predicting a return to cold and snow after a tepid January.  So, a job really well done twice in 15 years.  Can’t take those numbers to the bank 

 

He did.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no blocking

The idea that a 1042 high is bullied by some wimpy low because it moves with the flow is amusing lol. 

[CAPE]

12z EPS has a coastal storm look but not cold enough. A decent signal for frozen for the western highlands at this point.