Weather Will Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 WB 18Z GFS today compared to yesterday… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 The persistent 500 ridge over Cuba is the boss. Will it relax enough to allow the NAJS to settle south thru the MA during March? Short and sweet in a capsule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: During the last -PDO from 1945-1980 the pna was negative about 80% of the time. So long as we remain in a -pdo cycle, and the last one was 35 years, this is just how it’s going to be most of the time. I’ve seen no evidence the last 8 years that blocking can offset a -pdo anymore. At least not on a grand level. Could we luck into one snowstorm like March 2018, sure. But even during extreme blocking most storms go well to our north lately. Look what that period looks like now… But isn’t this just a 2023 version of a similar pattern at the same time of year in 1962 Look at where the core of the anomalies are. Isn’t this just that pattern adjusted for the warmer base state? Even during many of the very snowy periods during our last -pdo the trough was out west and the ridge was in the east in the means. It was just so cold it didn’t matter. But what happens if we adjust that same exact longwave pattern for todays base state temps and the ridge wins now? Would that 1962 pattern even lead to that huge early March mid Atlantic snowstorm or would it be further north now? And I am not saying it won’t snow at all coming up. I think we could luck into something similar to 2018. But even if we do, so what? One snowstorm doesn’t change this larger issue. This is why. If we are in another -pdo era, which I think we are since we were long due for a pdo flip, and the pna is going to be negative almost all the time for the next 30 years…we know +NAO periods are going to be awful. So we need the -NAO periods to be blockbusters with a lot of snow, not also these struggles where maybe we get lucky one time. No one is saying it won’t ever snow. It’s snowed over the last 8 years some. But if bad years are this bad…and even the “good years” are now a struggle it’s not good @CAPE is right that we need to see what happens when we get a favorable enso. But don’t assume that means the PNA issue goes away. During the last -pdo even during some ninos the pna was negative a large portion of the time. Look at an extremely snowy Nino month Jan 1966 for example. The pna was still negative we just overcame it. I’m curious myself to see how much of this a Nino can offset. The lower heights over the Aleutians is my guess as to what saved us? Brings the source air directly from the Arctic. You are far more educated about this stuff than I am. But that is just my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: This would really piss off some people here. With how that look would progress according to this winter I will count myself lucky if it’s not in the mid 80s by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 12 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I’m in as well. Bring on upper 40s and rain in April Oh no we can’t do that. Think we have been through enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS today compared to yesterday… That snow map is definitely rocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 HH GEFS is a bit more juiced up for this weekend with the weak wave moving east into the transient cold in place. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 It’s happening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s happening yeah baby! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 25 minutes ago, IronTy said: That snow map is definitely rocking. Rocking us to sleep perhaps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Those tricky Canadians. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 I see I listed the wrong thing….wishful thinking I see…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Rvarookie said: Oh no we can’t do that. Think we have been through enough You want to go right into 80s? I know we have warmed over the years but we’re not Florida. Not yet anyway. We need to right the ship and limp into the harbor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I am probably one of the few who want a cool Spring. I don't want to see an effing 80 till June. Hold off the inevitable tropical weather as long as possible. Last Spring/early Summer was probably as good as it gets around here these days. @psuhoffmanRegarding tropical weather, maybe what we need is an active Atlantic hurricane season to stir up the SSTs in preparation for what could be a better ENSO/base state next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: This would really piss off some people here. We need that pile of crap reaction back. I’m ready for sustained 60s and 70s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS. Day 10-15 period is in line with the long range teleconnections being more favorable. We will see if this holds… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: This would really piss off some people here. April Fools storm 2023? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS. Day 10-15 period is in line with the long range teleconnections being more favorable. We will see if this holds… SER pancake'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: SER pancake'd It's gonna take a stout west-based block like that for a fighting chance against the persistent awfulness out west. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's gonna take a stout west-based block like that for a fighting chance against the persistent awfulness out west. We all know how this is going to end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Southern MN looks like it's about to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS. Day 10-15 period is in line with the long range teleconnections being more favorable. We will see if this holds… Can we just package a p03 and p06 together and make everyone happy for once???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Can we just package a p03 and p06 together and make everyone happy for once????P23 and P29 would make most happy too. Let us get ONE banger to end the winter. Give us an areawide 8-12” storm to get most areas up to about 30-40% of climo and let’s move the fuck on from this shitshow of a winter. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2022-23 Winter in review -10 days out - SER - It’s gonna cut - We know how this is gonna end - Storm disappeared - Gotta get inside 5 days - PBP despair - No cold air - Well that sucked - I’ll take that and call it a winter - We suck - Avocados 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 18 minutes ago, Solution Man said: 2022-23 Winter in review -10 days out - SER - It’s gonna cut - We know how this is gonna end - Storm disappeared - Gotta get inside 5 days - PBP despair - No cold air - Well that sucked - I’ll take that and call it a winter - We suck - Avocados -Base State 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: -Base State -What could go wrong - Don’t say those two words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 - Put this winter out of its misery- Winter 2023-24 will be rockin’ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 hours ago, 87storms said: @psuhoffmanRegarding tropical weather, maybe what we need is an active Atlantic hurricane season to stir up the SSTs in preparation for what could be a better ENSO/base state next season. No intent to derail the thread here. Feel free to move if not appropriate. 87storms, there are a couple of issues with this: 1) After a three year Niña, we’re almost certainly going to a Niño or at worst warm neutral ENSO for the coming hurricane season. Activity is a lot more complicated than strictly ENSO, but warm ENSO should dramatically reduce Atlantic tropical activity. 2) Even after historically active seasons in terms of absolute activity and tracks in the western Atlantic, it hasn’t done much to temper the anomalously warm SSTs in this part of the basin. You need a wholesale and persistent atmospheric change to reduce those anomalies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 59 minutes ago, Solution Man said: 2022-23 Winter in review -10 days out - SER - It’s gonna cut - We know how this is gonna end - Storm disappeared - Gotta get inside 5 days - PBP despair - No cold air - Well that sucked - I’ll take that and call it a winter - We suck - Avocados I'd like a copyright on that last one--let that be my valuable contribution for this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: No intent to derail the thread here. Feel free to move if not appropriate. 87storms, there are a couple of issues with this: 1) After a three year Niña, we’re almost certainly going to a Niño or at worst warm neutral ENSO for the coming hurricane season. Activity is a lot more complicated than strictly ENSO, but warm ENSO should dramatically reduce Atlantic tropical activity. 2) Even after historically active seasons in terms of absolute activity and tracks in the western Atlantic, it hasn’t done much to temper the anomalously warm SSTs in this part of the basin. You need a wholesale and persistent atmospheric change to reduce those anomalies. Let me ask you this (and my apologies if this has been discussed already): Is the SER a direct result of these SSTs...or is that driven by something else? Someone answered earlier it was a nina thing, but given how strong it's been I was wondering if those warm waters were a cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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