stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Flips for DC and SE at 231, but NW areas still getting hit pretty good. Then at 234-237 0 line comes back south of DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 DCA is isothermal, but ripping snow at 228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I see a quick thump at 219 It;s a bit more than a thump post that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Very Euro-esque with snow maps. 8 to 10 city areas, lol, 18 for areas N and NW of DC 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It;s a bit more than a thump post that I'm actually a few seconds behind you looks like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Very Euro-esque with snow maps. 8 to 10 city areas, lol, 18 for areas N and NW of DCI mean verbatim isn’t that a foot into the city? If we’re using snow maps let’s have fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 chances within 9 days... hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I mean verbatim isn’t that a foot into the city? If we’re using snow maps let’s have fun it is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Just now, yoda said: 2 chances within 9 days... hmmm 2 opportunities for abject failure. I like it. 9 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 2 opportunities for abject failure. I like it. Yep, we’ll screw it up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 18z GFS has a similar outcome to the Euro for the 28th. Upstairs is somewhat different though. The way it looks now, the timing and amount of dig with that northern stream energy coming south will have a lot to do with how this goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, yoda said: 2 chances within 9 days... hmmm Start a thread!! Better yet, start 2!! 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Start a thread!! Better yet, start 2!! Where’s the wtf emoji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 The 25th chance is a thread the needle deal- the timing of that upper low shifting into the 50-50 region allows for the convergence/confluence necessary to develop a well timed surface HP wedging southward with just enough cold into our region. It exits stage right pretty quickly as there is no block(yet). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 Very Euro-esque with snow maps. 8 to 10 city areas, lol, 18 for areas N and NW of DCFirst first this winter Dr no and Dr stupid agree on snow for us at the same time frameSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 watch both be lake cutters or way south and out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 18 minutes ago, Ji said: First first this winter Dr no and Dr stupid agree on snow for us at the same time frame Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk And their both nice hits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 The 25th chance is a thread the needle deal- the timing of that upper low shifting into the 50-50 region allows for the convergence/confluence necessary to develop a well timed surface HP wedging southward with just enough cold into our region. It exits stage right pretty quickly as there is no block(yet).Doesn’t seem like the most ideal setup if we want snow from start to finish, especially in late Feb. I’m starting to realize the importance of having blocking up top, otherwise these high pressure systems are just gonna keep doing hit and runs with heights seemingly too high in between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Very Euro-esque with snow maps. 8 to 10 city areas, lol, 18 for areas N and NW of DC Is that mm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is that mm? Centimeters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 This is a legit west based block. Nearly perfect dipole position/orientation. And it's just enough to get somewhat below normal temps into the MA in the presence of the super -PNA. eta: a -NAO isn't normally associated with super cold air in general. The point is it barely keeps the SE ridge in check in this case, and instead of the thermal boundary being clearly to our south(as it typically would be with a block) it is further NW, so storms will still have a tendency to track to our north/west. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is that mm? µm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: This is a legit west based block. Nearly perfect dipole position/orientation. And it's just enough to get somewhat below normal temps into the MA in the presence of the super -PNA. eta: a -NAO isn't normally associated with super cold air in general. The point is it barely keeps the SE ridge in check in this case, and instead of the thermal boundary being clearly to our south(as it typically would be with a block) it is further NW, so storms will still have a tendency to track to our north/west. Still think that NAO never fully stops retrograding from Scandinavia and eventually links up with the SER in a full lat ridge feature. I think our window is Feb 25-March 6 though Chuck claims the best window actually follows as the full lat ridge breaks and reloads up top after the 8th. What are your thoughts on the NAO/SER hookup? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 00z GFS is better for next Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 5 hours ago, Solution Man said: Liking this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z GFS is better for next Saturday Widespread 1-3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 00z GFS has DCA 73 degrees on Thursday. Upper 20s on Saturday with snow. Nice 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 27-28th storm is a swing and miss to our north tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Still think that NAO never fully stops retrograding from Scandinavia and eventually links up with the SER in a full lat ridge feature. I think our window is Feb 25-March 6 though Chuck claims the best window actually follows as the full lat ridge breaks and reloads up top after the 8th. What are your thoughts on the NAO/SER hookup? It's always possible given the persistent deep trough out west. As I have said, it is likely going to take a strong west-based -NAO to inhibit that. Latest EPS runs are getting it done. Suppresses the SE ridge more so than the GEFS with a well positioned, strong block the end of Feb into March. Retrogrades it into an ideal position by the 5th. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Stronger signal on the 0z EPS for low pressure tracking underneath and off the coast for the 28th window. Modest signal for frozen in our region. Hints of the block getting into a position where it can encourage a more southward storm track. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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