Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm getting a signal +2 days from the 1st day of Spring, or Strong -NAO block until March 19th, lifting out for a snowstorm. This is something I've seen as the turn of a calendar event (month or season) as a mathematical anomaly, and now March 1st showing the big -NAO dive on current models. 

Base state?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Base state?

We seem to need a longer term pattern hold to change. This 7 years of -PNA after a Strong El Nino doesn't make a whole lot of sense, if you are looking at it purely from ENSO. 72-73: 3 years of -PNA. 82-83: 3 years of negative ENSO. 97-98: 3 years of -PNA. 15-16: 7 years of -PNA. We seems to have a greater connection with the upper atmosphere or sun. 

[Rvarookie]

1 hour ago, RDM said:

CWG is forecasting 76 for next Thursday...   if that holds buds will be sprouting all over the MA. 

Hope its good buds!

[midatlanticweather]

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm getting a signal +2 days from the 1st day of Spring, or Strong -NAO block until March 19th, lifting out for a snowstorm. This is something I've seen as the turn of a calendar event (month or season) as a mathematical anomaly, and now March 1st showing the big -NAO dive on current models. 

The way you described this reminded me of that robot guy that used to put out strange forecasts with numbers and pretend he was a robot! That was some strange stuff. May have been back in Eastern wx days 

[stormtracker]

So Euro destroys (relative to this year)  us between 222-240.  Only 9 days away!  8-12 area wide. Even CAPE gets in on it with slightly less

[stormtracker]

14 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Hope its good buds!

We're talking strictly about spring flowers, right?

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO!!!

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So Euro destroys (relative to this year)  us between 222-240.  Only 9 days away!  8-12 area wide. Even CAPE gets in on it with slightly less

 

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO!!!

 

[stormtracker]

That SV maps seems generous

[Ralph Wiggum]

It's happening, or still too soon?

[Cobalt]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So Euro destroys (relative to this year)  us between 222-240.  Only 9 days away!  8-12 area wide. Even CAPE gets in on it with slightly less

The one positive that's persistently showing up from like the 24th onwards is that monster 50/50 low that looks to have some staying power w/lower heights in that region. That area has had persistently AN heights for months now, so maybe signs of a change?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Couple of discrete threats seem to be popping up. Probably going to want to start threads to avoid any confusion here 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Couple of discrete threats seem to be popping up. Probably going to want to start threads to avoid any confusion here 

nah. base state. no more snow

[stormy]

Ive been expecting a change for some time now in late Feb, or March. Is this it? That is the $64,000 dollar question.   It is very nice to witness the GFS and ECM both looking at a same general opportunity timeframe 10 days out.

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That SV maps seems generous

the euro has destroyed us about 3 times this winter in this time range. But somehow we have survived all this destruction

[Ji]

Just now, stormy said:

Ive been expecting a change for some time now in late Feb, or March. Is this it? That is the $64,000 dollar question.   It is very nice to witness the GFS and ECM both looking at a same general opportunity timeframe 10 days out.

first time this winter i have seen all 3 of these models kind of agree on a snow for us at the 10 day range. Usually its just one of them...the other 2 dont agree and we get nothing

[BristowWx]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

first time this winter i have seen all 3 of these models kind of agree on a snow for us at the 10 day range. Usually its just one of them...the other 2 dont agree and we get nothing

Yet even still the 540 never makes it south.  Just like all the others at least on Euro…and the GLL says hello yet again 

[yoda]

34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Couple of discrete threats seem to be popping up. Probably going to want to start threads to avoid any confusion here 

Have Randy start them 

[stormtracker]

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro has destroyed us about 3 times this winter in this time range. But somehow we have survived all this destruction

Now we await the Euro ENS which, as always, will laugh at the OP

[stormtracker]

Just now, yoda said:

Have Randy start them 

I'd start the thread 36 hours before the storm starts.

[Amped]

Got a block and a 50/50 low for once. We manage to cash in while it lasts this time.

 

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Now we await the Euro ENS which, as always, will laugh at the OP

A bit of a signal showing on the mean but a ton of spread among the members with lows all over the place. Still a ways out there obviously, but the look at H5 has cold pressing, suggesting the boundary may be to our south- a rare occurrence this winter and a necessary first step. Flatten that fucking SE ridge.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Look at the Pacific, and how there was a deep downstream trough in Russia, under a ridge. 

[brooklynwx99]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A bit of signal showing on the mean but a ton of spread among the members with lows all over the place. Still a ways out there obviously, but the look at H5 has cold pressing, suggesting the boundary may be to our south- a rare occurrence this winter and a necessary first step. Flatten that fucking SE ridge.

 

the EPS now has a classic progression with the cutoff Scandi high retrograding towards the Davis Strait. I know that everyone is snakebitten, but this block is becoming stronger and moving up in time

hard not to get a bit excited when you see a retrograding block like this

[CAPE]

Pretty workable look for early March on the EPS. Legit -NAO dipole mitigating the awful Pacific enough to erase the SE ridge.

[CAPE]

^Slightly ninja'd lol. Great minds. 

[87storms]

Yet even still the 540 never makes it south.  Just like all the others at least on Euro…and the GLL says hello yet again 

I noticed that, too. I think next weekend’s system would rely on a well-timed strong surface high (CAD) in the right spot at the right time. After looking at the GFS and glossing over the Euro, it seems like it would be mostly an overrunning event.

[brooklynwx99]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

^Slightly ninja'd lol. Great minds. 

I am totally fine with the -PNA there if we have a west based block. wavelengths are short enough that it's not as much of an issue as Dec 2021, for example. also, it would give a continuous stream of shortwaves to roll underneath. great pattern verbatim

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I am totally fine with the -PNA there if we have a west based block. wavelengths are short enough that it's not as much of an issue as Dec 2021, for example. also, it would give a cotinuous stream of shortwaves to roll underneath. great pattern verbatim

In general I agree, but a bit less -PNA would be better. Seeing some signs of a slightly weaker Aleutian ridge on the means by early March.

[CAPE]

Just one 6" snowfall would salvage this wreck of a winter for me. That would put me at roughly a third of average, but I will take it. Most here would, but for those further NW I get that it would still suck relative to their average. We are all beggars at this point.