BristowWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Can't wait till we get a nino that fails and we have to hear all about how ninos suck. Eventually we will just have to say the MA sucks because there will be nothing else to blame it on. Not sure we suck as bad as this year has been however. I’d like to step down to full suckage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: One thing I do like about the setup inside D8 is the expected tight thermal gradient running west-east within our neck of the woods. The airmass that will prime the environment will be pretty solid and the globals this far out see the chance for winter precip is a positive, and they are likely not cold enough given the origin of the cold. The hope is to maintain a strong baroclinic zone within the confines of VA in order to capitalize on both the ascent from the shortwave and the cold layer through the boundary layer. We have scored with far worse. Not sure we'll be getting insane amounts of snow in the setup, but it could deliver an advisory level to perhaps low end warning if every chip fell into place. It's the best setup I've seen for the area in a while, so it'll be cool to track since I'll be back home around that time. I'm keeping my fingers crossed! Most of us here would love a solid advisory to warning level event (doesn't have to be some prolific HECS!), and a couple of nice, wintry feeling days even in early March, at this point. I'd look at it like that event we got around March 14 or 15 last year. Warm leading in, but we got one cold, brisk, snowy day with advisory level snow which was pretty cool. Of course after a couple of days it was gone and we warmed up again, but it was fun! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Most of us here would love a solid advisory to warning level event (doesn't have to be some prolific HECS!), and a couple of nice, wintry feeling days even in early March, at this point. I'd look at it like that event we got around March 14 or 15 last year. Warm leading in, but we got one cold, brisk, snowy day with advisory level snow which was pretty cool. Of course after a couple of days it was gone and we warmed up again, but it was fun! I like quick hitters in the late winter time frame. I do get the itch by mid-March for warmer weather, so any shot of snow followed by warming up is always fine in my book! I'd love to come home and see some snow to make it feel like home in the winter! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 39 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Can't wait till we get a nino that fails and we have to hear all about how ninos suck. But the base state!!&6!!:$24&$!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is it time for the "It's happening" jawn yet? 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Many of the shutout years in the data set are followed by climo or climo+ seasons. I guess there are exceptions to everything but at this point I would think we are better off without any attempt at recovering this year. It does seem like the shutout years are at least as common as the blockbuster years and we’re clearly overdue for a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Battle of the atmospheric blocks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You have more energy and time than I do. I have a better base state. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: retrograding ridge is now showing up on the mean. nice to see again, most of the members with a SE ridge don't have the blocking at all or they keep it east-based and over Iceland. the vast majority of members with a legit central/west-based -NAO have the typical 50/50 response I’ve said all winter our best chance was likely March. The shorter wavelengths make it easier to offset the pacific pattern which just won’t quit. So I’m not gonna completely dismiss this. Im just not going into its happening mode until I see it inside day 7 and no SER on the means. We’re moving the right direction I’m just being reserved for now. But if we’re really lucky maybe we get another super late season block like March 2001 or 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: March 2001 You had to go there didn't you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 I’d take the 6z gfs in a hot minute 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’d take the 6z gfs in a hot minute I know @CAPE says it's not happening, but this setup is the only way we will score this year with the crud PAC and SER still in tact. Might not end up clean hits, but with the NAO forcing lower heights to squeeze underneath and waves rolling over the SER with tighter wavelengths in-between, I'm growing increasingly confident that one of these 3 or 4 systems being depicted will put down a blanket of white. Backloaded was always the way things would play out given the longwave pattern (Nina). Eta: First threat 6.5 days out. Probably rushed and might not be the one, but the signal is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know @CAPE says it's not happening, but this setup is the only way we will score this year with the crud PAC and SER still in tact. Might not end up clean hits, but with the NAO forcing lower heights to squeeze underneath and waves rolling over the SER with tighter wavelengths in-between, I'm growing increasingly confident that one of these 3 or 4 systems being depicted will put down a blanket of white. Backloaded was always the way things would play out given the longwave pattern (Nina). Eta: First threat 6.5 days out. Probably rushed and might not be the one, but the signal is there. Euro and GGEM are both north with the D7 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro and GGEM are both north with the D7 storm Again, I think the GFS is rushing the NAO and more likely we are turning the calendar page when we score. Ens means a few days later on the better looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 45 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Again, I think the GFS is rushing the NAO and more likely we are turning the calendar page when we score. Ens means a few days later on the better looks. There’s good reasons to think a stout -NAO will develop at some time with SSW downwelling support. Shorter wavelengths would help mute a hostile Pac longwave configuration, but until it happens, I won’t trust it given persistence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 51 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know @CAPE says it's not happening, but this setup is the only way we will score this year with the crud PAC and SER still in tact. Might not end up clean hits, but with the NAO forcing lower heights to squeeze underneath and waves rolling over the SER with tighter wavelengths in-between, I'm growing increasingly confident that one of these 3 or 4 systems being depicted will put down a blanket of white. Backloaded was always the way things would play out given the longwave pattern (Nina). Eta: First threat 6.5 days out. Probably rushed and might not be the one, but the signal is there. If you are talking about the 25-26th, there has been a weak signal for some frozen on the means. I have made a few posts about it. As for whether it happens or not, who knows. GFS op has been consistently hinting, but the GEFS and EPS suggest the better chance is further north(shocker), which is probably how it will go. CMC ens is a bit better for our region. It's highly uncertain how much cold will be available for that period, but has the general look of some sort of frozen front end favoring places inland at elevation for our region. Probably a better chance of something the first few days of March based on the depicted pattern progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: If you are talking about the 25-26th, there has been a weak signal for some frozen on the means. I have made a few posts about it. As for whether it happens or not, who knows. GFS op has been consistently hinting, but the GEFS and EPS suggest the better chance is further north(shocker), which is probably how it will go. CMC ens is a bit better for our region. It's highly uncertain how much cold will be available for that period, but has the general look of some sort of frozen front end favoring places inland at elevation for our region. Probably a better chance of something the first few days of March based on the depicted pattern progression. Thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There’s good reasons to think a stout -NAO will develop at some time with SSW downwelling support. Shorter wavelengths would help mute a hostile Pac longwave configuration, but until it happens, I won’t trust it given persistence. I'm not super enthused despite seeing the -NAO on guidance. We will see if the shorter wavelengths help going forward, but that Aleutian ridge is just locked in and doesn't seem to want to nudge eastward even a little bit. We probably will need a monster west-based block for a time to get a few legit shots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Has the aluetian ridge weakened in strength on ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: If you are talking about the 25-26th, there has been a weak signal for some frozen on the means. I have made a few posts about it. As for whether it happens or not, who knows. GFS op has been consistently hinting, but the GEFS and EPS suggest the better chance is further north(shocker), which is probably how it will go. CMC ens is a bit better for our region. It's highly uncertain how much cold will be available for that period, but has the general look of some sort of frozen front end favoring places inland at elevation for our region. Probably a better chance of something the first few days of March based on the depicted pattern progression. My thoughts are similar wrt the better opportunity a few days later. I mentioned this in a few posts earlier, the GFS is notorious for rushing things usually by 3-5 days. We'll have to see what happens with next weekend before jumping into the calendar flip period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 both weeklies and extended really look better come the first week of march into the end of march 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 -NAO will likely rule the pattern March 9-19, -PNA until March 9. There is a stronger precipitation correlation than temperature. Models now develop a +EPO Day 7>, so it may also be hard to get highs under 50° when the -NAO initially begins. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 lol, GFS. Whatever. Went from 70 to snow ETA: Just went back and looked at 6z, which was colder for that 200+ thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I’d take the 6z gfs in a hot minute The H is now an L at 12z. What a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Hey, at least it's Day...9... lol, nice swath of heavy snow in N VA on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Maybe the MJO can come out of the null circle back to phase 7 and then swing out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 12z CMC has that next weekend storm that @CAPE has been mentioning a few times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z CMC has that next weekend storm that @CAPE has been mentioning a few times Yep. Cmc trended better / gfs went the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Man, 12z GFs goes nuts with blocking this run . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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