CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So now the question is is that (Aleutian ridge) just random bad luck, or is it....base? Lol That is a feature of a Nina, but the character/orientation can be different, and like last winter it can wax and wane and shift eastward/poleward at times. Probably Nina, PDO, and TNH pattern combining to screw us over this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: That is a feature of a Nina, but the character/orientation can be different, and like last winter it can wax and wane and shift eastward/poleward at times. Probably Nina, PDO, and TNH pattern combining to screw us over this winter. Throw in the warm western Atlantic SST'S as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, Daniel Boone said: Throw in the warm western Atlantic SST'S as well. Hard to say what impact that might be having when we can't even get cold to stick around for more than a day. The persistent western trough/eastern ridge is a winter killer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 35 minutes ago, CAPE said: The pattern was decent for much of December, but we were unlucky(plus climo). Since then the Aleutian ridge has been strong and stable, and in a very unfavorable position. That's pretty much the ball game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: Despair I almost spit Coke Zero all over my computer 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 For a change, normal temperatures predicted for week 3-4 - help from MJO especially to our north with SSW a wildcard https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Realtime Multivariate MJO (RMM) index indicated slow eastward propagation during February, and though earlier forecasts showed a potential weakening of the MJO in late February, extended runs from the ECMWF model depict re-emergence of the signal into March (Phases 7 and 8), though ensemble spread is large. Influences from both La Niña and MJO were considered in the Week 3-4 Outlooks. A SSW recently began which can manifest at the surface as a negative AO, however the SSW does not yet have a clear impact on the troposphere and forecasts of the AO from the GEFS and ECMWF models remain positive with considerable spread. Evolution of the SSW remains uncertain and influence from the SSW is not strongly considered. Probability of below normal temperatures is depicted over New England as the majority of dynamical models indicate troughing and below normal temperature probabilities, but are slightly weakened due to the warmer CFS solution beneath forecasted Eastern U.S. ridging. Above normal temperature probabilities are indicated over much of the Southeast U.S. beneath favored 500 hPa ridging and where models have good consistency, though probabilities are damped on the northern edge given possible below normal temperatures related to the MJO as seen in the MLR tool. Equal Chances (EC) of above and below normal temperatures stretches across the middle of the CONUS from the Southwest to the Mid-Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 28 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I almost spit Coke Zero all over my computer Makes sense. No sugar. Swim trunk weather coming soon. If this AN pattern holds it should be in low 100s by April 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Late February is really rocking so far. Cold frame lettuce seeds started to poke up from the soil as of this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, IronTy said: Late February is really rocking so far. Cold frame lettuce seeds started to poke up from the soil as of this morning. A month off. Our Hail Mary (SSW) just occurred. Delayed but not denied. Mid to late March will really be rockin'. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: A month off. Our Hail Mary (SSW) just occurred. Delayed but not denied. Mid to late March will really be rockin'. Ok JB. Late March rockin'? So.....45F and windy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, IronTy said: Late March rockin'? So.....45F and windy? Dont forget the driving rain. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Op runs and ensembles keep suggesting the 25th may offer a chance of at least some frozen.. and it is inside 10 days lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 @Ralph Wiggum We got guacamole here. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, IronTy said: Late February is really rocking so far. Cold frame lettuce seeds started to poke up from the soil as of this morning. While I'm not into gardening (though I may try it at some point), I wouldn't trust this climo. Man I can see a cold March snap-back damaging buds, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 hours ago, HighStakes said: Scranton's winter has looked a typical Charlotte winter lol. 3 hours ago, mattie g said: ScRaNtOn Is ThE nEw ChArLoTtE!1!1! Where the hell am I? SCRANTON!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: While I'm not into gardening (though I may try it at some point), I wouldn't trust this climo. Man I can see a cold March snap-back damaging buds, lol March 21, 2018 we got several inches of snow after some things started blooming. Here's snow on cherry blossoms from that event. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: March 21, 2018 we got several inches of snow after some things started blooming. Here's snow on cherry blossoms from that event. That's the exact example I was thinking of! The good ol' bud n' freeze we do so well...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: While I'm not into gardening (though I may try it at some point), I wouldn't trust this climo. Man I can see a cold March snap-back damaging buds, lol I'll take the under on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: Dont forget the driving rain. Pelting my face as I plant my snowpeas and kale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's the exact example I was thinking of! The good ol' bud n' freeze we do so well...lol On the flipside of that, March 2012 featured many 70-80+ degree days and cherry blossoms were in full bloom by St. Pat's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Never give up!!!! See what happens with a couple of waves if the SER relaxes enough for the cold air to move down the coast….WB 18Z GFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Next shot after the 25th. Op run but seeing a general signal on the ensembles for the first couple days of March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, Weather Will said: Never give up!!!! See what happens with a couple of waves if the SER relaxes enough for the cold air to move down the coast….WB 18Z GFS. lol you are so addicted to the damn snow maps. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Not all Ninas are complete ratters like this one. Can't wait till we get a nino that fails and we have to hear all about how ninos suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol you are so addicted to the damn snow maps. True, but I have been posting other kinds of maps too…. There are some some key differences within upcoming window, the strat. warm, some signs of a favorable MJO, and a negative NAO and WPO. If we get the PNA to get out of record low territory and a little luck we could get a crocus crushing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 One thing I do like about the setup inside D8 is the expected tight thermal gradient running west-east within our neck of the woods. The airmass that will prime the environment will be pretty solid and the globals this far out see the chance for winter precip is a positive, and they are likely not cold enough given the origin of the cold. The hope is to maintain a strong baroclinic zone within the confines of VA in order to capitalize on both the ascent from the shortwave and the cold layer through the boundary layer. We have scored with far worse. Not sure we'll be getting insane amounts of snow in the setup, but it could deliver an advisory level to perhaps low end warning if every chip fell into place. It's the best setup I've seen for the area in a while, so it'll be cool to track since I'll be back home around that time. I'm keeping my fingers crossed! 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: One thing I do like about the setup inside D8 is the expected tight thermal gradient running west-east within our neck of the woods. The airmass that will prime the environment will be pretty solid and the globals this far out see the chance for winter precip is a positive, and they are likely not cold enough given the origin of the cold. The hope is to maintain a strong baroclinic zone within the confines of VA in order to capitalize on both the ascent from the shortwave and the cold layer through the boundary layer. We have scored with far worse. Not sure we'll be getting insane amounts of snow in the setup, but it could deliver an advisory level to perhaps low end warning if every chip fell into place. It's the best setup I've seen for the area in a while, so it'll be cool to track since I'll be back home around that time. I'm keeping my fingers crossed! You do realize that if we get frozen while you're here, we can't let you leave, right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 19 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Never give up!!!! See what happens with a couple of waves if the SER relaxes enough for the cold air to move down the coast….WB 18Z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: True, but I have been posting other kinds of maps too…. There are some some key differences within upcoming window, the strat. warm, some signs of a favorable MJO, and a negative NAO and WPO. If we get the PNA to get out of record low territory and a little luck we could get a crocus crushing event. Just effin with ya. Not a big believer in the SSW impacts, but once in awhile it works out. Getting late though. The SPV will be naturally weakening anyway as we move through March, so I am skeptical this does much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 42 minutes ago, CAPE said: @Ralph Wiggum We got guacamole here. Is it time for the "It's happening" jawn yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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