TSG Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Its a Breeze said: Was just looking at this earlier today. DCA has had one 100+ degree day in the past 9 summers. The longest "cool" stretch like that since the late 60s-early 70s. Only the second such stretch. This has been brought up and discussed before. I believe the consensus is that the increasing humidity has been keeping our temps down in some of our recent torchy summer stretches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 WB 18Z GFS. Swings are wild in the long range….March 1 at 1pm compared to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 WB 18Z GFS. Swings are wild in the long range….March 1 at 1pm compared to 12ZHi William Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 18x gfs hour 282, bowling ball cut off low cuts right through that 594 SE ridge like a hot knife through butter. Lol, yeah right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 At this point...I'm just looking for somewhere I can drive too!Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS. Swings are wild in the long range….March 1 at 1pm compared to 12Z SSWE doing it's dirty work on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: Hi William Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk That GFS 2m temperature looks like we were yesterday in Buda, TX, beautiful toasty 80 alongside a nice balmy dewpoint of 66! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Those 3 are really just one- the persistently strong Aleutian ridge. Until that dies or shifts, the other 2 remain. We have seen plenty of evidence it cannot be mitigated by a transient -NAO or 50-50 lows. I don't see a legit sustained west-based block setting up anytime soon, and it is debatable if that would have the impact we need. You’re right…they’re all part of the same feedback loop, but an Aleutian ridge alone can be mitigated. We’ve snowed with one before. Recently even. But when I see all 3 on a mean imo it means those features are still dominant and locked in and likely to trend stronger. All those other factors working to suppress the SER, one will likely not be as robust and the result is the whole boundary shifts north again. If I see a pattern with an Aleutian ridge but the SER is actually totally gone on the means and the trough axis is in the east then I might entertain that perhaps we’ve got a chance to mitigate the pac pattern. Again you’re ultimately right but I wanted to clarify that seeing all 3 on the mean to me indicates the pac ridge is still driving the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 58 minutes ago, Ji said: At this point...I'm just looking for somewhere I can drive too! Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk all 3 ensembles indicate New England (away from the coast) will get quite a bit of snow soon. I drive there to ski all the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 we might break the record for the warmest feb temp at KIAD on feb 24, we could be flirting w 80s which is completely unprecedented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 00z is the new happy hour according to the GFS 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 00z is the new happy hour according to the GFS 384 clown map. What could go wrong . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 8 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Not that I want California to burn down, but I have appreciated the ridge west/trough east summers lately. I’m not looking forward to the next time we have a summer 2010-2012 pattern. i honestly don't think we're ready for it when that inevitably comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Gfs took it away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 WB GFS MJO forecast continues to trend better for early March. Latest compared to earlier this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB GFS MJO forecast continues to trend better for early March. Latest compared to earlier this week. Lets see if it translates to an improving h5 pattern. Oh look, a SE ridge about to link up with a -NAO! We are stuck with the same general mild pattern with storms tracking west until that Aleutian ridge weakens. Some of the extended products get there, but might be too late for most of us. Always the chance we time something perfectly as the boundary briefly shifts southward heading into early March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Very end of the month into the first few days of March still looks like our next best shot. Pretty weak signal for frozen on the GEFS and EPS though. Root for the CMC ens mean. Beyond that, who knows. Maybe the SSW will save us, but I doubt it. This Nina/TNH pattern seems locked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Yah, I don’t have high hopes although the latest WB GEFS extended looked better for the mid March period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 If we could use vacuum as a metric to indicate how much this winter sucks we would have passed 10^-17 Torr by now! If it keeps up, one would have to travel over 150 miles just to find one atom of oxygen! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 41 minutes ago, CAPE said: Lets see if it translates to an improving h5 pattern. Oh look, a SE ridge about to link up with a -NAO! We are stuck with the same general mild pattern with storms tracking west until that Aleutian ridge weakens. Some of the extended products get there, but might be too late for most of us. Always the chance we time something perfectly as the boundary briefly shifts southward heading into early March. i’m not sure how “real” that SE ridge on the mean is. most of the members that do have a legit SE ridge have no blocking. I think it might be skewing things a bit a few members link the block and the SE ridge, but most force a big 50/50 and/or a trough over the EC… basically the classic response to a west based block 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 36 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i’m not sure how “real” that SE ridge on the mean is. most of the members that do have a legit SE ridge have no blocking. I think it might be skewing things a bit a few members link the block and the SE ridge, but most force a big 50/50 and/or a trough over the EC… basically the classic response to a west based block Yeah we will have to see how the pattern progresses. Hopefully we get a relaxation of the Pacific Pig ridge in conjunction with a -NAO period, but the current pattern has been persistent since early Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i’m not sure how “real” that SE ridge on the mean is. most of the members that do have a legit SE ridge have no blocking. I think it might be skewing things a bit a few members link the block and the SE ridge, but most force a big 50/50 and/or a trough over the EC… basically the classic response to a west based block I dunno man, I see 6 members there that have a -NAO linked to an eastern US ridge. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Some of the members that “look good” with a trough in the east had a linked NAO SER prior so the storm was just rain because there was warmth in front of it. So add in those 3 members then add in the handful that don’t develop blocking and it’s a majority that have a SER still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Lets see if it translates to an improving h5 pattern. Oh look, a SE ridge about to link up with a -NAO! We are stuck with the same general mild pattern with storms tracking west until that Aleutian ridge weakens. Some of the extended products get there, but might be too late for most of us. Always the chance we time something perfectly as the boundary briefly shifts southward heading into early March. That looks familiar. Pretty much how our last 5 -NAOs went. But isn’t that just the 2023 version of this… That’s the h5 from some of our snowiest winters during the last -pdo cycle. But look at where the anomalies are centered…Aleutian high, lowest heights over western Canada and under the block in the Atlantic. The mean ridge position is over the east it’s just extremely muted. But what happens if you simply adjust that look there to todays warmer base state??? Doesn’t it end up exactly what that h5 you posted is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That looks familiar. Pretty much how out last 5 -NAOs went. But isn’t that just the 2023 version of this… That’s the h5 from some of our snowiest winters during the last -pdo cycle. But look at where the anomalies are centered…Aleutian high, lowest heights over western Canada and under the block in the Atlantic. The mean ridge position is over the east it’s just extremely muted. But what happens if you simply adjust that look there to todays warmer base state??? Doesn’t it end up exactly what that h5 you posted is? It might. I think the current Nina/PDO/TNH combo is also just an unfavorable base state for our region- all probably exacerbated by that other thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: It might. I think the current Nina/PDO/TNH combo is also just an unfavorable base state for our region- all probably exacerbated by that other thing. Ya I don’t know. Like you I’m very curious what happens with a better enso base state. I can see logical arguments for it going either way. During the last -pdo Nina’s were pretty bad. We did have an awful stretch in the 50s which if you only adjust it slightly could have been that eras version of this. On the other hand we did have one Nino which everyone makes excuses “it never coupled” except during the last -pdo many ninos didn’t have exactly the same pac influence but we managed to snow anyways. And we did snow “more” in 2019 just not enough to offset the dreg surrounding it. Also we had a few snowy neutral winters during the last -pdo and so far both neutrals firing this -pdo have been god awful! There are valid arguments for each side here. And it will snow some either way. No one is saying that’s it snow is over. It’s snowed the last 8 years. Just not nearly as much as we are used too. The question isn’t “will it snow in a more favorable base state”. It’s will it snow enough. When we do get a favorable enso we need that to be a 40” winter not something like 2019 again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Ya I don’t know. Like you I’m very curious what happens with a better enso base state. I can see logical arguments for it going either way. During the last -pdo Nina’s were pretty bad. We did have an awful stretch in the 50s which if you only adjust it slightly could have been that eras version of this. On the other hand we did have one Nino which everyone makes excuses “it never coupled” except during the last -pdo many ninos didn’t have exactly the same pac influence but we managed to snow anyways. And we did snow “more” in 2019 just not enough to offset the dreg surrounding it. Also we had a few snowy neutral winters during the last -pdo and so far both neutrals firing this -pdo have been god awful! There are valid arguments for each side here. And it will snow some either way. No one is saying that’s it snow is over. It’s snowed the last 8 years. Just not nearly as much as we are used too. The question isn’t “will it snow in a more favorable base state”. It’s will it snow enough. When we do get a favorable enso we need that to be a 40” winter not something like 2019 again. I do think we lost the neutrals (at least those that come after a nina) in this new base state. But I don't think we've lost the ninos, at least not yet. We should know by this time next year, for better or worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 WB 12Z GFS 8 days away…. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS 8 days away…. You are going to become inconsolable soon. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 WB 12Z Can for day 8 system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 23 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You are going to become inconsolable soon. So am I if I have to read the phrase “base state” one more GD time 5 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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