Rvarookie Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 53 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya wanna get rid of me that badly, smh (despite me cutting my posts down since last month). Hey uh...don't wanna see me post? How about not @ing me just to randomly insult! P.S. On the off-chance this was NOT an insult...ya know, I don't know if I ever fully "close up shop" on here...because now I'll be following the ENSO. Definitely much less involvement overall given that takes weeks and months...but I'll still be around (I poke my nose in severe occasionally) Sorry man…I def didn’t intend for it to land as insult. More so was admiring your dedication and perseverance and suspected you would be last one standing. Just wanted to ensure you closed the door, so we don’t let the ac out. It’s getting hot out here man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We’re not done with winter. I just know it. No way March goes wall to wall spring. The universe will correct itself I hope we are. No point now. Like, I still wouldn't mind seeing a day here or there of snow. As long as it's close to 70 a couple days later.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 58 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: (Un?)fortunately the EPS looks viable to me for wintery precip past Day 9 or so. March is the new February 36 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yup, blocking builds in later on, likely due to the SSW, and the pattern becomes good for overrunning with the persistent 50/50 showing up Yeah, it has worked out well for us in the LR so far 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 24 minutes ago, mappy said: lol weve gone from chasing 10 days away storms, to being thankful for 80s on long range outputs the cycle is complete. winter is over. congrats folks, we mostly died but dragged our lame asses to the finish line Pretty much. February will go by with nothing most likely. Sun angle, DST...let's just get off this ride already. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: at least we should be good for next year? Let’s cross the spring predictability barrier first. We’ll know by June-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Pretty much. February will go by with nothing most likely. Sun angle, DST...let's just get off this ride already. One more round…I didn’t hear no bell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Euro pumping a 597dm ridge in the Gulf in...checks notes...February. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 EPS sucks as a model.. GFS ensembles trended to +EPO today Days 13-15 at 12z, ..3 contours over Alaska. To let you know, this current +EPO that is about to end is responsible for Isip, NY breaking February monthly record today of 71 degrees on Feb 16th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro pumping a 597dm ridge in the Gulf in...checks notes...February. Not that I want California to burn down, but I have appreciated the ridge west/trough east summers lately. I’m not looking forward to the next time we have a summer 2010-2012 pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 41 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We’re not done with winter. I just know it. No way March goes wall to wall spring. The universe will correct itself We will get our non-accumulating daytime mid-March snow and we will like it. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro pumping a 597dm ridge in the Gulf in...checks notes...February. Have to wonder if a big SE ridge early Spring preceeds any kind of Atlantic hurricane season. Last time was 2017,2018,2019.. average storms 17/yr. minus 2013 (SE trough): "The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was a well below average Atlantic hurricane season and the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes." minus 2022 that rocked a little the short term average for Febuary's "v": "The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was the first season since 1997 in which no tropical cyclones formed in August, and the lowest La Niña year since 1998." That's in this era since 2013.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 This winter is the anti-2009/10. This was the winter where we truly paid for that one. It's all downhill (or uphill, if you prefer climbing) from here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro pumping a 597dm ridge in the Gulf in...checks notes...February. I kinda of enjoyed wearing a short sleeve T-shirt in downtown DC yesterday. Next week—shorts! I mean clam diggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: No way March goes wall to wall spring. January and February did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 29 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Not that I want California to burn down, but I have appreciated the ridge west/trough east summers lately. I’m not looking forward to the next time we have a summer 2010-2012 pattern. Was just looking at this earlier today. DCA has had one 100+ degree day in the past 9 summers. The longest "cool" stretch like that since the late 60s-early 70s. Only the second such stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 47 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, it has worked out well for us in the LR so far I mean, guidance is guidance regardless of how the winter has gone so far. it's not very wise to just ignore it I get the frustration, but persistence is always genius until it's wrong at the worst time 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 7 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: @WxUSAF put this in the futility thread, but I think it might work here too...just...wow - most of this forum is in the -48 to -72 snow deficit contour... It’s just a flesh wound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I mean, guidance is guidance regardless of how the winter has gone so far. it's not very wise to just ignore it I get the frustration, but persistence is always genius until it's wrong at the worst time Very true but I don’t think it’s foolish to realize that day 10-15 looks mean nothing and we should wait until it’s inside day 7 before getting excited that the persistence is ending. Especially when those day 10 looks continue to be versions of the same tease that mutates in the same way into the same crap. Simply relying on persistence would be bad science but so would crying wolf 50 times a winter at every half decent day 10-15 look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 I won’t get excited by any day 10+ look that still has 3 features, a western trough, Aleutian and a SER. Because we’re stuck in a loop where all 3 continue to be under represented and the result is as we move closer the SER pumps more and more until those good looks are just more of the same. These good looks that rely on a bunch of things overcoming those 3 problems are just a tease. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Hell of a pattern here on the Euro weeklies. First time there is decent PNA with no hint of a SE ridge, AND a -NAO. April is gonna kick azz. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 18z GFS: Baffin Island Low dominates. -PNA dominates. Look at this piece of energy dropping into the NW @119hr: (Tracking the warmup.) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Very true but I don’t think it’s foolish to realize that day 10-15 looks mean nothing and we should wait until it’s inside day 7 before getting excited that the persistence is ending. Especially when those day 10 looks continue to be versions of the same tease that mutates in the same way into the same crap. Simply relying on persistence would be bad science but so would crying wolf 50 times a winter at every half decent day 10-15 look. I get what you mean. I'm not getting excited by any of it, though. just noting that there may be some changes due to the SSW and potential blocking as a result I think it's worth mentioning possible changes 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I won’t get excited by any day 10+ look that still has 3 features, a western trough, Aleutian and a SER. Because we’re stuck in a loop where all 3 continue to be under represented and the result is as we move closer the SER pumps more and more until those good looks are just more of the same. These good looks that rely on a bunch of things overcoming those 3 problems are just a tease. Those 3 are really just one- the persistently strong Aleutian ridge. Until that dies or shifts, the other 2 remain. We have seen plenty of evidence it cannot be mitigated by a transient -NAO or 50-50 lows. I don't see a legit sustained west-based block setting up anytime soon, and it is debatable if that would have the impact we need. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 @CAPE- Def vote you as best poster this year in LR. Appreciate ya boss! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 We live in the benign weather capital of the world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 I know I was terrorized until I posted on weather message board. Judgement ensues here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 @Ralph Wiggum Attack of the Avocados! Plenty of snow well offshore. Who has a big boat? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: @Ralph Wiggum Attack of the Avocados! Plenty of snow well offshore. Who has a big boat? Steams for the Flemish Cap. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 3 hours ago, a.salt said: Where is the Reaper when you need one? You were calling! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 30 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: @CAPE- Def vote you as best poster this year in LR. Appreciate ya boss! Thanks, but this weird hobby is a group effort. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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