jayyy Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 i’ve got a post all set to bumpAs long as it’s not a thread . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 I can’t believe I made a drink and am here for HH. I’m pathetic. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 First world problems. A cat in your lap and arms too short. Let’s go GFS!! We need some blue! 7 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 As of today Las Vegas has more snow than DCA on the season. #WeSuckAtWinter Ahahahahahaha! When Vegas gets a heavier snow shower than Winchester has seen all season. 2 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Dang...just looked at a Facebook memory from this day in 2017 and I was calling it the worst winter ever...and guess how much snow we had by V-Day 2017? 0.2"--the same exact amount we have now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: As of today Las Vegas has more snow than DCA on the season. #WeSuckAtWinter Ahahahahahaha! When Vegas gets a heavier snow shower than Winchester has seen all season. That ain't right man...Guess there's nothing wrong with THEIR base state! (And also...the western "base state" is better than ours I guess? Eh I don't know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 47 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: First world problems. A cat in your lap and arms too short. Let’s go GFS!! We need some blue! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 hour ago, MacChump said: i’ve got a post all set to bump Where is the eye roll emoji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: As of today Las Vegas has more snow than DCA on the season. #WeSuckAtWinter Ahahahahahaha! When Vegas gets a heavier snow shower than Winchester has seen all season. My mom lives out in Henderson and called me while I was shooting hoops outside to tell me that it was a mixed bag of precip out there. She's already had more snow than me from the last event that left them up to 2". It's ridiculous. Usually the weather is the opposite from us, so I'm not surprised that with the mild temps here that it's been below normal out there. This is not our winter. Just look at the jet stream placement...even for that next week thing it looks further north than ideal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Happy hour’ing for a potential window 10+ days out. Man, we’re sad . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Re jet stream...I'm just now looking at the Euro and the jet is about 100 miles further south than the GFS. Worth tracking if we can get a wave that actually produces east of the Apps. Let the model flip flopping begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS, not bad percentages and noteworthy four nice hits to our south… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: That ain't right man...Guess there's nothing wrong with THEIR base state! (And also...the western "base state" is better than ours I guess? Eh I don't know) Is it the base state or the bass ? ? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2023 Author Share Posted February 15, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS, not bad percentages and noteworthy four nice hits to our south…Dude 80% of them give us something!. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 That's about the warmest look it gets on the 18z GFS ensembles. We pop a +3 sigma SE ridge when the NAO goes negative, which is what I'm saying, we might flux the -PNA/+EPO initially. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Dude 80% of them give us something!Nice to see some hits to the south too. Still too far out to get sucked in by the specifics, but the potential is duly noted for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dang...just looked at a Facebook memory from this day in 2017 and I was calling it the worst winter ever...and guess how much snow we had by V-Day 2017? 0.2"--the same exact amount we have now, lol 13 years ago today, the sun shined through my bathroom skylight through the nearly six feet of snow that was laid on top from the two blockbuster storms that occurred back to back! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 11 minutes ago, Stormfly said: 13 years ago today, the sun shined through my bathroom skylight through the nearly six feet of snow that was laid on top from the two blockbuster storms that occurred back to back! Yes sir!!! Man what an epic snow period to be alive! I mean wow...yes better to focus on the good memories 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Analog year - 2018 -----3-4 nor'easters in a row dumped 20 inches on the LV in 3 weeks in early March after 1-2 inches of snow in February and little in January of 2018. Feb 15, 2018 high was 66 degrees - tomorrows high in the mid 60's here. Why this analog year? Again we have a fading La NIna year like 2018 and now a direct relationship of sudden stratospheric warming showing up which will eventually changed the La Nina pattern in a few weeks which in 2018 resulted in more LP systems riding and intensifying along the coast instead of being crappy lake cutters. We now a have stratospheric warming suddenly occurring and the models are currently having a real difficult time digesting and ingesting accurate data especially for the next 5-10 days. IMHO, this is the best chance of snow for everyone in the mid Atlantic. NY metro, Central PA and Philly region beginning in the next 2-3 weeks that we have had all year. Its coming baby so get your shovels ready. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Once on the wrong side of the boundary. Always on the wrong side of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That's about the warmest look it gets on the 18z GFS ensembles. We pop a +3 sigma SE ridge when the NAO goes negative, which is what I'm saying, we might flux the -PNA/+EPO initially. It's going to be difficult to mitigate a persistent extremely negative PNA/ SE ridge without a legitimate -NAO. The depiction on guidance in the LR has a slightly negative NAO with the ridge displaced too far north/east. Have to see how that evolves going forward but as advertised that won't help much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 yikes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 That can’t be good. I guess the trees know what to do but hard to imagine if they bloom we won’t have several hard freezes. Maybe we won’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 The extended products depict a favorable pattern progression into early March, weakening the Aleutian ridge with the PNA trending neutral/ positive, suppressed/absent SE ridge, and a negative NAO(on the GEFSx and EPS weeklies). H5 looks really good for mid March period. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: The extended products depict a favorable pattern progression into early March, weakening the Aleutian ridge with the PNA trending neutral/ positive, suppressed/absent SE ridge, and a negative NAO(on the GEFSx and EPS weeklies). H5 looks really good for mid March period. This is it fr fr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This is it fr fr: This is our chance! GEFSX and Euro weeklies look better. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: yikes Thank you Jesus. PLEAAAASE end this nightmare and bring on the 70s. Dead serious. If it's not going to snow, it might as well be super above normal. Being warm is something we almost NEVER fail with, so I'm super confident we're gonna put this nightmare behind us. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 yep noticed some cherry trees starting to bloom along 34th St NW in Cleveland Park yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Early cherry blossom season?! I was thinking mid-march. Wife is dying to see them. Will it be too late by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 50 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thank you Jesus. PLEAAAASE end this nightmare and bring on the 70s. Dead serious. If it's not going to snow, it might as well be super above normal. Being warm is something we almost NEVER fail with, so I'm super confident we're gonna put this nightmare behind us. lmao winter is coming back. give it a week and enjoy the warmth while you can 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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