stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 850's are warmer than 6z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 h5 low is down in the FLorida Panhandle at 84 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 they cool down a bit, but precip seems farther south a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 3:53 PM, stormtracker said: 850's are warmer than 6z so far Expand Looks kinda like a wash to me thru 84 but not sure it matters much anyway - we get the perfect solution or we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 3:40 PM, NorthArlington101 said: so much for German engineering - took hours to load in. Real close around the metro honestly. Expand Tick east with the heavy snow….this is a win for me if I get heavy snow for a few hours…this may not get resolved until we are outcasting on Sunday… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 3:23 PM, psuhoffman said: Problem is where is it pulling the cold from??? there is no cold to tap to our north within 500 miles. The only cold is the pocket of dynamically cooled air. The slight imperfection that doomed the euro control was the slow movement and early close off of the upper low allowing us to be under easterly flow for too long. Plus by the time the system gets here it’s vertically stacked and not amplifying which is worse for dynamic cooling. Also there is a limit. We’re not asking to cool a marginal column with a wet bulb of 36 degrees. On that run the boundary is torched. It’s too much to overcome no matter how heavy the precip is. Expand Yes, I was wrong to say pull in cold air, I meant generate its own cold air. I am not as well versed in meteorology as others in here, but I have followed snowstorms closely since I was a kid. I do think there are some that are getting caught up on certain things (like mid level and ground temps) and being too dismissive about snow chances. Either way, I appreciate your breakdowns as I try to get better educated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Rain begins at hr 99, but it's snow just west of i81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 h5 in S SC at 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 3:55 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Looks kinda like a wash to me thru 84 but not sure it matters much anyway - we get the perfect solution or we don't. Expand Yeah, even if we get a "perfect" solution it probably won't be good enough for the metros. Just too warm unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 hr 105, still rain for most of the forum, except maybe i-85 central va down to roanoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Nice looking h5 low at 105 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 This run is warmer than 6z . Still rain at 111 vs snow at 6z at 117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 3:58 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah, even if we get a "perfect" solution it probably won't be good enough for the metros. Just too warm unfortunately. Expand mostly agree - this run verbatim is spitting out some snow in SC (and not just the mountains) - think there is a path to victory with perfection and a better placed vort pass. Just way too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 3:53 PM, stormtracker said: 850's are warmer than 6z so far Expand This thing cutting off so far south isn’t going to do us any favors. We need it to cutoff farther north so there’s still some meager amount of cold air aloft when it gets here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Almost 40 degrees and rain for the lowlands on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 4:00 PM, stormtracker said: This run is warmer than 6z . Still rain at 111 vs snow at 6z at 117 Expand The slowdown combined with an already awful airmass is what sunk this one. Welp...we made it till' 120 hrs this time--maybe next weekend we can bring it home 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 All rain, wall to wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 3:58 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah, even if we get a "perfect" solution it probably won't be good enough for the metros. Just too warm unfortunately. Expand Why wouldn't the 540 line be in Canada the second week of February with a coastal low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 4:00 PM, NorthArlington101 said: mostly agree - this run verbatim is spitting out some snow in SC (and not just the mountains) - think there is a path to victory with perfection and a better placed vort pass. Just way too far south Expand Yeah, goal posts ever so narrow. There is no cold air anywhere to be found in the entire CONUS for this storm though. 540 thickness line in Montreal isn't usually good for us lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 And that's it folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 What's funny is if you put in KDCA and pull up the sounding at 111... it says best precip type is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 If it's 40 in Albany, Boston, and Chicago, it ain't snowing here. LOL. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 4:01 PM, Maestrobjwa said: The slowdown combined with an already awful airmass is what sunk this one. Welp...we made it till' 120 hrs this time--maybe next weekend we can bring it home Expand I'm confused why you keep bringing up President's Day Weekend when it looks like there are no real potential storms during that time period. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 C SC gets 2-4" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 3:56 PM, Blizzard Hunter said: Yes, I was wrong to say pull in cold air, I meant generate its own cold air. I am not as well versed in meteorology as others in here, but I have followed snowstorms closely since I was a kid. I do think there are some that are getting caught up on certain things (like mid level and ground temps) and being too dismissive about snow chances. Either way, I appreciate your breakdowns as I try to get better educated. Expand You’re not wrong if we had anything close to a typical winter thermal profile. Even a “warm” one by normal standards. That run does dynamically cool the column by like 5-7 degrees but it’s just not enough because it’s so ridiculously warm. Think if it like if we got a storm in early November or April. Because that’s what this thermal regime is more analogous to. It could go perfect and still not be enough because it’s just too warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 4:02 PM, stormtracker said: And that's it folks Expand Oh well, thanks anyway. We suck at snow and we continue to fail good. At least we are dragging Boston, New York and Philly down with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 4:04 PM, umdterps29 said: I'm confused why you keep bringing up President's Day Weekend when it looks like there are no real potential storms during that time period. Am I missing something? Expand My apologies--no there isn't, just a heavy dose of hopium mixed with weenieism there. (Although 0z Euro and Gfs did show a cold front after a cutter with some precip at the boundary...but that's way out in fantasy land, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 4:06 PM, Maestrobjwa said: My apologies--no there isn't, just a heavy dose of hopium mixed with weeping there. (Although 0z Euro and Gfs did show a cold front after a cutter with some precip at the boundary...but that's way out in fantasy land, of course) Expand 10 more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 4:02 PM, stormtracker said: And that's it folks Expand See you for the EURO 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The problem w this run wasn’t the surface temps but the 775-850 mb levels torching w the low so far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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