CAPE Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 12:40 PM, MD Snow said: Not liking a majority of LP's in VA/NC. Potential is there for the final shift to be inland today/tomorrow. Expand Probably more likely to shift the other way given the progressive nature of the flow and the ridge behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 0z EPS has a better h5 look at the end of the run. The big blob of +heights south of the Aleutians weakens and the ridge axis shifts eastward, with a broader trough over the central US. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 12:31 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: But according to the experts here, data sampling and model changes because of that isn’t really a thing. Expand Based on LWX’s AFD this morning, I think they disagree. Personally, I have no idea 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 12:18 PM, Bob Chill said: I'm in VA this week. Looks like smith mtn jack east of the blue ridge. Should I post here or in the SE sub? Expand 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 the CIPS analogs are interesting, but many caveats apply of course - mainly that cold air thing. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:15 PM, NorthArlington101 said: the CIPS analogs are interesting, but many caveats apply of course - mainly that cold air thing. Expand So we can’t use Jan 2016? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:21 PM, LeesburgWx said: So we can’t use Jan 2016? Expand I mean I'm personally using a Jan 2016 blend with a little bit of Jan 2000 and a dash of Feb 2014, but not sure that's wise. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Sorry there was no shit pbp for the last two cycles. I had uh...a lot of natural plants for that time period and I passed out around 8 But today, it's going to be rockin. Strap in for the ride 5 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 12:53 PM, CAPE said: 0z EPS has a better h5 look at the end of the run. The big blob of +heights south of the Aleutians weakens and the ridge axis shifts eastward, with a broader trough over the central US. Expand Smarch is happening. Book it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 This looks like a good panel on the 06z EPS. Haven't looked at the individual members yet so that I can live in a world for a little longer where this is great news. Fingers crossed. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:27 PM, stormtracker said: Sorry there was no shit pbp for the last two cycles. I had uh...a lot of natural plants for that time period and I passed out around 8 But today, it's going to be rockin. Strap in for the ride Expand Wondering where you were , you got the mic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:27 PM, stormtracker said: Sorry there was no shit pbp for the last two cycles. I had uh...a lot of natural plants for that time period and I passed out around 8 But today, it's going to be rockin. Strap in for the ride Expand I need some jaws music on the 12z runs please and thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:29 PM, NorthArlington101 said: This looks like a good panel on the 06z EPS. Haven't looked at the individual members yet so that I can live in a world for a little longer where this is great news. Fingers crossed. Expand snow mean took a solid step down - unfortunate. Pretty good for the western regions, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:30 PM, Solution Man said: Wondering where you were , you got the mic Expand Yoda did well in my stead. On 2/8/2023 at 1:30 PM, yoda said: I need some jaws music on the 12z runs please and thank you Expand I want to play it so bad, but unless I can foresee the thing clearly, I can't ever pull the trigger. I had one false alarm already. I have to realize that ones of people count on that thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The WB 6Z EPS ticked NW this run. I think we are honing in on higher elevation event, but whether the NW burbs get any substantial snow is still unclear. Quick count 11 of 50 members bring snow to NW zones east of mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:33 PM, Weather Will said: The WB 6Z EPS ticked NW this run. I think we are honing in on higher elevation event, but whether the NW burbs get any substantial snow is still unclear. Expand not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching and the 850s are only marginally better -- the control throws down this absolute banner of a deform band and it isn't enough to paste the cities, at least verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:36 PM, NorthArlington101 said: not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching and the 850s are only marginally better -- the control throws down this absolute banner of a deform band and it isn't enough to paste the cities, at least verbatim. Expand I fully recognize getting snow to the coast is going be very difficult in this setup, but with a 997 Low off the coast I do not buy the 0 degree line being all the way in Western PA and Finger lakes region of NY. It is still early February regardless of what kind of airmass we have here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:15 PM, NorthArlington101 said: the CIPS analogs are interesting, but many caveats apply of course - mainly that cold air thing. Expand Some very interesting storms in there, especially toward the top. Surprised 1/23/16 was a close match and that we didn't see January 2011 in there. 2/13/14 was in there, but I remember that having a very cold airmass ahead of it. The surprise January 2000 storm is in there. And then, I don't remember it somehow, but the 2006 storm is in there, and from what people have described about it, that seems like more of a match from an air mass standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 12:40 PM, MD Snow said: Not liking a majority of LP's in VA/NC. Potential is there for the final shift to be inland today/tomorrow. Expand Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:03 PM, Terpeast said: Based on LWX’s AFD this morning, I think they disagree. Personally, I have no idea Expand Lol I was being sarcastic. It absolutely has to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Looks like deep creek is the place to be for this week @nj2va 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:54 PM, Chris78 said: Looks like deep creek is the place to be for this week @nj2va Expand Most of the recent GFS runs show precip barely even reaching deep creek. Could be the place to be solely due to the likelihood of there being more cold, but doesn't seem that farfetched that they could get shut out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:36 PM, NorthArlington101 said: not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching and the 850s are only marginally better -- the control throws down this absolute banner of a deform band and it isn't enough to paste the cities, at least verbatim. Expand That should be a 2-3 inch per hour band. Instead, it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:59 PM, umdterps29 said: Most of the recent GFS runs show precip barely even reaching deep creek. Could be the place to be solely due to the likelihood of there being more cold, but doesn't seem that farfetched that they could get shut out as well. Expand Eps disagrees. But yes you are correct for some of the OP runs the last few cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 2:01 PM, osfan24 said: That should be a 2-3 inch per hour band. Instead, it's rain. Expand 6Z GFS on Pivotal shows 2.66" of ice resulting from that deform band! lol eta: Actually, this is the 0Z GFS I posted. The 6Z is not nearly as impressive, bringing 0.3" of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 2:11 PM, WesternFringe said: 6Z GFS on Pivotal shows 2.66" of ice resulting from that deform band! lol Expand Haven't had a great chance to do this yet but this storm is screaming "chase to I-81" -- was gonna be around the Cville/Staunton area til Saturday morning before heading back north but it wouldn't take a lot of wintery precip to convince me to stay a few extra days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:36 PM, NorthArlington101 said: not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching and the 850s are only marginally better -- the control throws down this absolute banner of a deform band and it isn't enough to paste the cities, at least verbatim. Expand It's fun to track this because there isn't anything else, but it has always looked like an inland/at elevation deal for snow imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:54 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol I was being sarcastic. It absolutely has to matter. Expand It's near impossible to discern whether it's better data or simply shorter leads that adds the most accuracy. I'm a coin flip on this topic. Personally, I haven't seen much difference for years. Leads shorten and forecast improves is how I look at it. Big shifts in guidance as land based sensor data comes in has become pretty rare IME 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 1:36 PM, NorthArlington101 said: not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching Expand Even if I don't say it, its still going to be true. The problem isn't the people pointing out the reality, its the fact its a reality. On 2/8/2023 at 1:41 PM, Blizzard Hunter said: I fully recognize getting snow to the coast is going be very difficult in this setup, but with a 997 Low off the coast I do not buy the 0 degree line being all the way in Western PA and Finger lakes region of NY. It is still early February regardless of what kind of airmass we have here. Expand But it's happened several times over the last few years. Most recently a couple weeks ago we had an absolutely perfect track storm that was just rain along 95. I think no one noticed because from range it was supposed to be a cutter and it had no hope of snow anyways due to temps so people stopped paying attention but over the last 72 hours it trended east and ended up an absolutely perfect track coastal low but it did no good. We had a couple of those in January and Feb 2021 also. So why are you so sure it can't happen here? I will acknowledge this is the most extreme example of all these recent events I am citing...but its also the warmest status quo airmass also so while I acknowledge there is a chance (please dont interpret this to mean I am saying there is a 0% chance of snow) I definitely do buy the possibility, if not even the likelihood, we get a perfect track driving rainstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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