Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Is that all we need?  At least we have something to actually talk about for once. 

Yea.  I think most of us have been around long enough and seen enough to look at this and see what it is...a super long shot but a non zero chance in an otherwise shit the blinds period so we are keeping an eye on it because WTF there is nothing else to talk about other then crazy speculation about March.  

[Paleocene]

EPS 12z. I can't see snow, but 0.25"  -0.5" QPF across the area as this thing passes; temps look iffy to say the least

Versus 00z

[brooklynwx99]

EPS is much improved from 06z at 500mb

[NorthArlington101]

12z EPS looks better than 6z to my eyes, at least in regards to the vort pass... maybe not the other things we need off @psuhoffman's list

[Heisy]

EPS is much improved from 06z at 500mb

That’s to be expected since all the 12z models now have the closed low…unfortunately problem is latitude and progressive flow.


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[brooklynwx99]

hmm. this looks quite nice

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

EPS 12z. I can't see snow, but 0.25"  -0.5" QPF across the area as this thing passes; temps look iffy to say the least

Versus 00z

I'll post them when it comes out in a few mins 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

That’s to be expected since all the 12z models now have the closed low…unfortunately problem is latitude and progressive flow.


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there’s a pretty notable NW lean here. much, much improved from 06z

[Heisy]

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[NorthArlington101]

00z

[clskinsfan]

Yeah. Thats digging a lot more. Lets hope we continue to see that trend as we go forward. 

[brooklynwx99]

all told, that was a great EPS run. exactly what i wanted to see

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

That’s to be expected since all the 12z models now have the closed low…unfortunately problem is latitude and progressive flow.


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Yea its "better" but the upper low mean track is through NC, we really need it to be through southern VA.  We can't afford any easterly flow given the already problematic thermals.  

[osfan24]

It's definitely better. A long way to go but certainly enough of a step in the right direction to march forward to 18z.

[NorthArlington101]

I count 19/50 members that have a trackable storm somewhere in the subforum - hardly a consensus but as others have already said, surely a net positive run.

[psuhoffman]

12z snow probabilities for BWI including all 3 ensembles

1": 18%

3": 15%

6": 8%

 

The relatively close spread between 1/3/6" is expected given the all or nothing dynamic nature of this event.  Overall odds improved from 8% to 18% from 0z to 12z so this was a move we needed to even be in the game at all.  We need to see continued improvements but given the very marginal thermals not sure we would ever get this into the high probability range until very short range since ultimately to work we need some luck with banding features and that is never going to be a high probability thing on guidance.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

all told, that was a great EPS run. exactly what i wanted to see

It was a definite improvement.  It kept this in the "worth bothering to keep an eye on" category for another day.  But I dunno... I reserve "great" for something more than a run that says we have a 20% chance of snow.  But if we're grading on a curve this year maybe.  

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

It’s moving in the right direction, right??

At this point, I am watching the Global models. The ensembles carry less weight as we move under five days.  At least we have something to track other than 300 hour 500 MB maps, and speculative stratwarm and MJO effects in three weeks.

[Buddy1987]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I count 19/50 members that have a trackable storm somewhere in the subforum - hardly a consensus but as others have already said, surely a net positive run.

Man what a refreshing animation to see, ESP coming from the Euro. Can’t remember the last time 50/60/70 probs were down this way. Still will believe it when I see it Friday night and it’s still showing it..

[Ravens94]

Navgem is amped up

[stormtracker]

Why do the NAM panels load at the speed of dark?

[Baltimorewx]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Why do the NAM panels load at the speed of dark?

We looking at the NAM already??

[brooklynwx99]

here is the meteogram for BWI from the EPS… multiple significant snowfalls on there

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

We looking at the NAM already??

 You got something else to do between now and the GFS?  At any rate, looks good so far!

[Heisy]

Navgem is amped up

Kind of does a Ukie track. It’s all rain though, not that I’d care about thermals on a Nogaps hah. Where’s Ralph with the CRASS


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[yoda]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 You got something else to do between now and the GFS?  At any rate, looks good so far!

18z h5 looks better with it stronger than the 12z run lol

[yoda]

 

[stormtracker]

Looks pretty intriguing 

[Blizzard Hunter]

19 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Kind of does a Ukie track. It’s all rain though, not that I’d care about thermals on a Nogaps hah. Where’s Ralph with the CRASS


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Even if that scenario came true, I would expect a changeover to snow. 

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Looks pretty intriguing 

It does. Follow the track of the upper low. We need that to swing through VA just south of us.  That’s key 1. Without that nothing else matters. The primary surface low is irrelevant since the only way we snow is with dynamic cooling under the upper low.  Get the h5 low to cut through southern VA and then we just have to hope it’s amplified enough and we get lucky with meso banding to dynamically cool enough.