psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 23 minutes ago, Heisy said: From a met on our Philly board, gfs sometimes thinks its 6 hour forecast guess is better than observations. Usually a good 24 hours to flush it out. Still there by 18z today then maybe we got something…. Fun tidbit, think we would have been NAMed at 6z lol, energy looks strong enough where it would have redeveloped fwiw. Nice uptick 6z eps, still not a ton of support, but step in right direction . That’s exactly how I remember that discussion in Jan 2021 going. The GFS has an over reliance on its 6 hour forecasts in the next initialization which means it can take 24 hours to flush out a garbage solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 WB 6Z EPS…. 1 in 50 chance of a flush major storm hit, but the mean shows a little snow tv at best…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS…. 1 in 50 chance of a flush major storm hit, but the mean shows a little snow tv at best…. I count about a dozen or so that has snow either over us or close to us. That Basically actually develops a storm . How does this compare to 00z eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 WB 6Z compared to OZ is an improvement…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I can’t update the GEPS part of the equation but substituting the 6z eps and gefs the probability of 1” at BWI increased from 8% to 15%. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Models are headed the wrong way tho. Look upstairs and 850, not just the surface. This is almost totally rate dependent and we don't do complicated rate dependent very well. A chance, but slim. Shut up. Let us enjoy it, FFS. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, IronTy said: Forget all this technical brouhaha analysis. As happens every year at this time, my wife's boss has a celebrity box at the super bowl. They get a security deal, the whole nine yards. All the CEOs attend. Alas, spouses aren't invited, so I'm left at home to drink alone fantasizing that one day the Detroit Lions will make it to the top stage. Some dreams never come true. But this year with a threat inside d5 I actually pity my wife. Two model runs in a row showing snow. Yeah I'll watch the game and get copious text msgs with pics of famous people, but deep inside I'll know that I'm the one experiencing the super bowl in person. The super bowl of snow. Being a CEO in that box is like being a Russian oligarch near a window. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can’t update the GEPS part of the equation but substituting the 6z eps and gefs the probability of 1” at BWI increased from 8% to 15%. IT’S HAPPENING. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: Being a CEO in that box is like being a Russian oligarch near a window. Easy come, easy go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 12z NAM looks good again at end of run. Means nothing, but we take . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Gfs has been very consistent since 18z. Can’t discount it entirely but we should definitely be proceeding with extreme caution with such an extreme island solution being depicted. Curious to see if it carries this solution through 0z and whether or not the euro trends this way today. We’re entering its prime range around D5, especially 00z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 12z NAM looks good again at end of run. Means nothing, but we take .NAM extrapolation, especially the 12k nam.. = useless . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: Gfs has been very consistent since 18z. Can’t discount it entirely but we should definitely be proceeding with extreme caution with such an extreme island solution being depicted. Curious to see if it carries this solution through 0z and whether or not the euro trends this way today. We’re entering its prime range around D5, especially 00z tonight. Hahaha it's prime range is actually after the storm has passed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: 12z NAM looks good again at end of run. Means nothing, but we take . It looks very good at h5 but its running even warmer in the mid levels than the 6z GFS and that was barely able to get cold enough to snow with extreme dynamic cooling. That could have been a big problem, no way to know without seeing it play out. We need two things here...we need both the more amplified h5 solution and perfect track but we also need the colder solutions to be correct also. Remember we have seen plenty of "perfect track" rain solutions for this even over the last week or so its been teasing us off and on. I agree the NAM looked like it was about to have a perfect upper level pass... but not so sure the thermals were going to work from how torched things were at 84 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 12z rgem trended towards nam/gfs at H5. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, Heisy said: 12z rgem trended towards nam/gfs at H5 . ICON looks like a positive step at H5 too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Well, strap in and prepare yourselves. PBP incoming. Tamp down the excitement. Maybe I'll finally get to Jaws it up. I admit, I'm interested with 3 runs in a row. Have we even had 3 runs in a row showing the same thing or similar when it comes to a storm for us? 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, LP08 said: ICON looks like a positive step at H5 too. For sure. The iconic Icon tries but it's too south. It does develop a storm which is a win in my book 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, LP08 said: ICON looks like a positive step at H5 too. Doesn’t quite make it…just a bit too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well, strap in and prepare yourselves. PBP incoming. Tamp down the excitement. Maybe I'll finally get to Jaws it up. I admit, I'm interested with 3 runs in a row. Have we even had 3 runs in a row should the same thing or similar when it comes to a storm for us? LFG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, strap in and prepare yourselves. PBP incoming. Tamp down the excitement. Maybe I'll finally get to Jaws it up. I admit, I'm interested with 3 runs in a row. Have we even had 3 runs in a row showing the same thing or similar when it comes to a storm for us? It's going to be impressive if your decision to do PBP for this ends up with a disorganized POS drizzling on us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: For sure. The iconic Icon tries but it's too south. It does develop a storm which is a win in my book For sure. I'm still skeptical, mostly due to thinking "nothing else has gone our way this winter so why would this"? However, if such a storm does form as GPS and Icon tries to depict, it would most likely be snow and not go out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Some minor changes through 72. Touch flatter out front and bit less negatively tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 So far, no changes on the GFS through 81 hr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: It's going to be impressive if your decision to do PBP for this ends up with a disorganized POS drizzling on us. Stop that, you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 @Ji I’m becoming increasingly optimistic we do get a legit “winter” period in March. We had a precursor weak SSW even followed now by a more significant one. These scaffolded ones tend to yield results more often. And it’s timing up with the MJO heading towards more favorable phases. I know some will deb it because it’s March but snow is snow and I’ll take it in June if that’s when we get it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji I’m becoming increasingly optimistic we do get a legit “winter” period in March. We had a precursor weak SSW even followed now by a more significant one. These scaffolded ones tend to yield results more often. And it’s timing up with the MJO heading towards more favorable phases. I know some will deb it because it’s March but snow is snow and I’ll take it in June if that’s when we get it. We have had very dynamic snowstorms in March, so I would be on board. In April is when I start to detest any cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 still developing the closed low, but seems more progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: still developing the closed low, but seems more progressive It is more progressive, but the ridge out west is definitely more pumped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So far, no changes on the GFS through 81 hr i see changes..a bit flatter and more east. Not huge but any slight negative change can be a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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