AtlanticWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 35 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Definitely reminds me of January 2011. Would be funny in this winter if we got something out of this given how terrible the setup us with temperatures, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm sure the GFS is right this time, lol! what happened in january 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: what happened in january 2011? Chaos. A beautiful heavy wet snow resulting in gridlock on the roads. Here’s a good recap. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/storm_summaries/event_reviews/2011/Mid-Atlantic_Northeast_WinterStorm_Jan2011.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowfan said: Chaos. A beautiful heavy wet snow resulting in gridlock on the roads. Here’s a good recap. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/storm_summaries/event_reviews/2011/Mid-Atlantic_Northeast_WinterStorm_Jan2011.pdf wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said: 3 runs in a row with the same solution.. That’s worthy this year Agreed. Five days out is when the GFS has been locking in with weather events this year. This just happens to involve snow for us this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: There was a Feb storm in 87 or 88. 14 inches fell with temps at 35. Fell at night though . Was also a Sunday storm . 87. Never seen snow melt so fast. I was 9 living near Philly. We got 14” but the next day had to go to Harpers Ferry WV for a baptism. Left early and by the time we got to to Delaware on 95 the snow was almost gone. When we arrived in WV there was nothing but patches in shady areas. I said to my uncle I was surprised they didn’t get more snow because we had a lot. He said they had 16” but it all melted by the time we got there! The next day we went on a hike in t shirts. The temp comp is valid. But that was a Nino with blocking. Also looking at anomaly maps The base state that year wasn’t quite as putrid as we have now but there’s no way to quantify that. Anything’s possible. But I’m sure we will get complaints if we do get 12” and it melts in 3 hours the next day lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 The signal for frozen on the 6z GEFS(east of the mountains) ticked up a bit- 'highest' in VA west and south of DC. There are 7 members that suggest measurable snow in our general region, with differences in the exact placement. Clearly places inland at elevation would be favored in such a marginal setup- if it actually precipitates at a decent rate in those areas. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: The signal for frozen on the 6z GEFS(east of the mountains) ticked up a bit- 'highest' in VA west and south of DC. There are 7 members that suggest measurable snow in our general region, with differences in the exact placement. Clearly places inland at elevation would be favored in such a marginal setup- if it actually precipitates at a decent rate in those areas. imo this setup seems like one of those sneaky setups that shows up on ops before ensembles, and it's also a sensitive one. so either the ensembles are right and that it won't happen or there's slowly growing support based on the progression of the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Snowbowl Sunday. Snowing moderately 21z Sun Heavy snow at 0z Monday into 3z. Not sure what the GFS is sniffing, but if it went down like this, a lot of us would be happy. It's just such a fluke and unbelievable situation. But at 3 runs in a row, something's gotta be up...right? Maybe. The Gfs idea is hinted at on the other guidance but nothing else gets to the most extreme solution we need. However remember in late Jan 2021 the Gfs did this same thing at about this same range (like 100-120 hours) remember this fiasco, this are from breaking that threat down What sticks out is how similar this is. West to east upper feature in a marginal airmass. Plus I remember then someone familiar with NCEP pointed out the way the GFS incorporates data from previous runs it can take 3-4 runs to flush out a bad solution. Sure enough after 24 hours it caved. Not saying this is that again. I hope not. But that sticks out in my mind as a warning not to jump in on the Gfs until other guidance starts to support. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: i know what you're saying, but this is a super dynamic evolution verbatim and would produce legit deform banding but yes, I agree, this would be tough to pull off. but certainly doable! Man that wave spacing. I’d actually feel better if it was March trying to pull that off. That’s a classic mid March bowling ball storm look. But who knows. With the temps the way they are maybe the pattern behaves that way early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Forget all this technical brouhaha analysis. As happens every year at this time, my wife's boss has a celebrity box at the super bowl. They get a security deal, the whole nine yards. All the CEOs attend. Alas, spouses aren't invited, so I'm left at home to drink alone fantasizing that one day the Detroit Lions will make it to the top stage. Some dreams never come true. But this year with a threat inside d5 I actually pity my wife. Two model runs in a row showing snow. Yeah I'll watch the game and get copious text msgs with pics of famous people, but deep inside I'll know that I'm the one experiencing the super bowl in person. The super bowl of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 06z euro looks pretty similar to gfs at 90 hours out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Ji said: I don’t think March will be flukish. Even the most anti weenie Twitter Mets are acknowledging a major saw coming. I could see us getting a foot storm in March with temps in 20s haha . March is always a wildcard. One of our worst warm Nina’s that was snowless before, 1976, had a big snow in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, IronTy said: Forget all this technical brouhaha analysis. As happens every year at this time, my wife's boss has a celebrity box at the super bowl. They get a security deal, the whole nine yards. All the CEOs attend. Alas, spouses aren't invited, so I'm left at home to drink alone fantasizing that one day the Detroit Lions will make it to the top stage. Some dreams never come true. But this year with a threat inside d5 I actually pity my wife. Two model runs in a row showing snow. Yeah I'll watch the game and get copious text msgs with pics of famous people, but deep inside I'll know that I'm the one experiencing the super bowl in person. The super bowl of snow. What does your wife do that she gets to go to the super bowl in a skybox? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Most of the other guidance now has a squashed wave to the south. Seems more plausible than this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: What does your wife do that she gets to go to the super bowl in a skybox? Flys all over the country to fire CEOs lol They'll be shitting their pants when they see her in the celebrity box lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: What does your wife do that she gets to go to the super bowl in a skybox? Private equity. Top of the capitalist food chain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 06z euro looks pretty similar to gfs at 90 hours outAgreed… looks like a shift in the right direction. EPS is coming out, hopefully with a decent group of “hits” in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 From LWX. Bold is my emphasis . Further complicating this forecast is the cold air arriving on the back end of this system with the trough. The GFS and some of its ensembles bring that cold air in and still have some QPF around, thus producing some snow on the back side of the system. Do think the Canadian/European solution is a bit more realistic though, with drier air on the back side dampening precipitation chances. Certainly something worth monitoring in the coming days to see if a trend develops. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Chris78 said: Flys all over the country to fire CEOs lol They'll be shitting their pants when they see her in the celebrity box lol. Lmao, she just fired one before Christmas. She's having a hard time hiring his replacement though. Whatever, there ain't no snow in Arizona. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Most of the other guidance now has a squashed wave to the south. Seems more plausible than this Just gotta get that happy medium... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 So...anything interesting happen overnight?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Agreed… looks like a shift in the right direction. EPS is coming out, hopefully with a decent group of “hits” in there It’s a tick up from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Maybe. The Gfs idea is hinted at on the other guidance but nothing else gets to the most extreme solution we need. However remember in late Jan 2021 the Gfs did this same thing at about this same range (like 100-120 hours) remember this fiasco, this are from breaking that threat down What sticks out is how similar this is. West to east upper feature in a marginal airmass. Plus I remember then someone familiar with NCEP pointed out the way the GFS incorporates data from previous runs it can take 3-4 runs to flush out a bad solution. Sure enough after 24 hours it caved. Not saying this is that again. I hope not. But that sticks out in my mind as a warning not to jump in on the Gfs until other guidance starts to support. From a met on our Philly board, gfs sometimes thinks its 6 hour forecast guess is better than observations. Usually a good 24 hours to flush it out. Still there by 18z today then maybe we got something….Fun tidbit, think we would have been NAMed at 6z lol, energy looks strong enough where it would have redeveloped fwiw.Nice uptick 6z eps, still not a ton of support, but step in right direction . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Here’s a better look at 6z eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Haven’t had a dusting down this way the entire winter season. Would be really nice to at least get something measurable. Hoping for once this winter the GFS can score a coup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Can we please stop bickering with each other. It's getting really tedious to read it constantly. If your posts are disappearing, please do better. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, Heisy said: Nice uptick 6z eps, still not a ton of support, but step in right direction We talkin steps like this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 So we need a 'hail mary' on Super Bowl Sunday. Seems sort of fitting. At least we still aren't trying to thread needles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 34 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Agreed… looks like a shift in the right direction. EPS is coming out, hopefully with a decent group of “hits” in there yup, less progressive with the trailing wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 enough of that convo PSU. write your 10000 words in banter. thanks. 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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