Heisy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Difference between GFS vs Euro same hour…. Can see wouldn’t take a whole lot for euro to look like GFS, but same goes for other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 bwi combined ensemble probability through 0z Monday 1”: 7% 3”: 3% 6”: 1% 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 GFS is still doing it. Again. A teeny bit warmer with 0 isotherm hugging just east or on the cities 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Snowbowl Sunday. Snowing moderately 21z Sun Heavy snow at 0z Monday into 3z. Not sure what the GFS is sniffing, but if it went down like this, a lot of us would be happy. It's just such a fluke and unbelievable situation. But at 3 runs in a row, something's gotta be up...right? 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 Snowbowl Sunday. Snowing moderately 21z SunThe sw dug more west and really had more time to go negative earlier. Way different solution lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 lol, clown maps. 18-20. Snow depth 2 to 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: The sw dug more west and really had more time to go negative earlier. Way different solution lol . Hell of a way to get 2 to 4. But that Sunday evening period is destruction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 Hell of a way to get 2 to 4. But that Sunday evening period is destructionThis particular gfs solution has more upside. It looks like a march storm you’d pray would fall at night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol, clown maps. 18-20. Snow depth 2 to 4 i think this would actually stick to everything verbatim. absolutely dumping at 32-33? yup what a wild evolution. I mean, it's certainly weird, but if it keeps showing up I can't totally throw it out. it's like a late March storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I love seeing clown maps…. Especially this winter season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 i think this would actually stick to everything verbatim. absolutely dumping at 32-33? yup what a wild evolution. I mean, it's certainly weird, but if it keeps showing up I can't totally throw it out. it's like a late March stormThere was a Feb storm in 87 or 88. 14 inches fell with temps at 35. Fell at night though . Was also a Sunday storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Models are headed the wrong way tho. Look upstairs and 850, not just the surface. This is almost totally rate dependent and we don't do complicated rate dependent very well. A chance, but slim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Models are headed the wrong way tho. Look upstairs and 850, not jist the surface. This is almost totally rate dependent and we don't do complicated rate dependent very well. A chance, but slim. i know what you're saying, but this is a super dynamic evolution verbatim and would produce legit deform banding but yes, I agree, this would be tough to pull off. but certainly doable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Looks like a higher elevation snow, with some slop everywhere else. Like Wiggum says, rate dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 Models are headed the wrong way tho. Look upstairs and 850, not jist the surface. This is almost totally rate dependent and we don't do complicated rate dependent very well. A chance, but slim.The only reason it’s even snow is because it’s so dynamic. Of course it’s rate dependent. Shades of Jan 2011 lol?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i know what you're saying, but this is a super dynamic evolution verbatim and would produce legit deform banding but yes, I agree, this would be tough to pull off. but certainly doable! In a winter where even the most favorable setups have failed we are now relying on a most unorthodox setup to deliver the goods. I'll probably observe cautiously from the sidelines for now but if we get more than 1 model on board and get this under 72 hrs I might get interested. This is a pretty delicate setup, but I'm sure you already know this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 In a winter where even the most favorable setups have failed we are now relying on a most unorthodox setup to deliver the goods. I'll probably observe cautiously from the sidelines for now but if we get more than 1 model on board and get this under 72 hrs I might get interested. This is a pretty delicate setup, but I'm sure you already know this.I’m interested. It’s the only threat that has been interesting in the 120 hour range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Looks like a higher elevation snow, with some slop everywhere else. Like Wiggum says, rate dependent. Like a mid March storm. Maybe a precursor to the tail end of winter anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: I love seeing clown maps…. Especially this winter season. Please!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 It’s going to snow in our most flawed window. Typical . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ji said: I’m interested. It’s the only threat that has been interesting in the 120 hour range . I'm rooting for a hail Mary here like most everyone else. But realistically it would still take some fairly dramatic adjustments on the other guidance (Euro/CMC/ICON) and merely one or 2 minor changes on the gfs to drop this look. Of course I'm skeptical but don't get that confused with pessimistic either. GFS needs support and we've seen the gfs on its own island too many times this season around this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: It’s going to snow in our most flawed window. Typical . You know thats exactly how the one threat this winter will unfold whether it turns out to be this one where all models bow to the gfs unlike every other system OR some oddball fluke window in the 2nd half of March. I agree, that's how we end up cashing in this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm rooting for a hail Mary here like most everyone else. But realistically it would still take some fairly dramatic adjustments on the guidance that middle (Euro/CMC/ICON) and merely one or 2 minor changes on the gfs to drop this look. Of course I'm skeptical but don't get that co fused with pessimistic either. GFS needs support and we've seen the gfs on its own island too many times this season around this range. Euro was sniffing yesterday at 12z and backed off at 00z, now GFS full blown on board. We've been down this road. I need another 48 hours before buying. Rate dependent storm, call me Thomas for now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 You know thats exactly how the one threat this winter will unfold whether it turns out to be this one where all models bow to the gfs unlike every other system OR some oddball fluke window in the 2nd half of March. I agree, that's how we end up cashing in this year.I don’t think March will be flukish. Even the most anti weenie Twitter Mets are acknowledging a major saw coming. I could see us getting a foot storm in March with temps in 20s haha. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ji said: I don’t think March will be flukish. Even the most anti weenie Twitter Mets are acknowledging a major saw coming. I could see us getting a foot storm in March with temps in 20s haha . Remember, March 2nd, is really February 30th. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 13 minutes ago, Ji said: I don’t think March will be flukish. Even the most anti weenie Twitter Mets are acknowledging a major saw coming. I could see us getting a foot storm in March with temps in 20s haha . Polar Vortex destruction! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 runs in a row with the same solution.. That’s worthy this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 45 minutes ago, Ji said: The only reason it’s even snow is because it’s so dynamic. Of course it’s rate dependent. Shades of Jan 2011 lol? . I was just thinking of Jan 2011 too. We can do deform well around here if it threads the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Models are headed the wrong way tho. Look upstairs and 850, not just the surface. This is almost totally rate dependent and we don't do complicated rate dependent very well. A chance, but slim. I think the fact that its still there on the GFS is a win in itself. Yes, the details would need to be worked out, it could just rain on us at 35 degrees, but the threat is still there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Definitely reminds me of January 2011. Would be funny in this winter if we got something out of this given how terrible the setup us with temperatures, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm sure the GFS is right this time, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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