Heisy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 WB 2.6 EURO weeklies perhaps a last hurrah late February into mid March so don’t give up yet…SSW reaction puts us around mid March for affects. So probably see some blocking potentially show up around then.Also, for this next potential event I put it at like 1% happening. Need the perfect thread the needle with a bombing low getting cutoff from the flow because the airmass is such garbage. It will at least keep my interest during 00zThere were maybe 3-4 eps members that had some snow for us. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 The Fri-Sat event has too many ways to fail, so I am pessimistic on snow chances outside of elevated interior regions, at least for now. However, a lot of Mets and amateurs drop the ball as forecasters because they obsess over long range anomaly charts, ENSO states, and the search for the mythical pattern change. Snowstorms are local phenomena that occur due to very specific, random interactions of synoptic features. They cannot be forecast reliably very far out in the future. If you keep scouring fantasy range for the perfect setup, you will miss the potential event hiding in plain sight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: In all seriousness, I’m glad to see the muted reaction to this. There is 100% chance that this upcoming 0z run will look totally different. It’s a mirage. Like all the others. And no this ain’t reverse psychology, it’s reality and you all know it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: ICON says it's a legitimate chance of some showers for the Carolina's. Partly cloudy and around 50 for us. A decaying cutoff in the southeast is a definite possibility as well. It has been part of the ensemble spread for a day now and the delayed shortwave progression is trending towards it. But this scenario also leaves open the possibility of some cold-side precipitation further up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 So the GFS did it again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: So the GFS did it again Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 'copter. 8 to 10". GTFOOH. Bedtime 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Deck Pic said: Check out the snow depth map though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Man I wish that High to the north had stayed there like the last run...would've looked exactly like it otherwise. But same general evolution as 18z it appears...just a little less cold/dynamic. ? The maps showed 8 to 10" dude. We know it's bullshit, but still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Huh...wonky distribution of totals this time, lol You have to wonder if other models pick up on this, it could be a rate-dependent thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: What could go wrong? At least something to track, even if chances are low. Better than reading 20 pages of why it won’t snow and how 1778 featured really cold temps and better base state. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, rjvanals said: Check out the snow depth map though oh yeah..it's hilariously warm,...though it would be something above say 500' or whatever if you're far enough NW.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: ? The maps showed 8 to 10" dude. We know it's bullshit, but still I'm def desperate enough to stand in a red roof inn parking lot off a highway exit somewhere on Saturday night. 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Deck Pic said: I'm def desperate enough to stand in a red roof inn parking lot off a highway exit somewhere on Saturday night. Me Mountain, here we come! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 CMC almost tries to pull same thing but ULL can’t get going and trough is a little too progressive. Icon has a gfs progression, but doesn’t have nearly enough juice with left over energy. Let’s get some support from ukie or euro tonight . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Heisy said: SSW reaction puts us around mid March for affects. So probably see some blocking potentially show up around then. Also, for this next potential event I put it at like 1% happening. Need the perfect thread the needle with a bombing low getting cutoff from the flow because the airmass is such garbage. It will at least keep my interest during 00z There were maybe 3-4 eps members that had some snow for us. . Cohen then says most of the time the cold blob bounces back to the polar region, but overshoots the North Pole and shifts into the eastern U.S. He finds this timing of cold air arrival is about two weeks after the SSW. If this scenario plays out, colder-than-normal air would return to the eastern U.S. and Michigan around the end of February or beginning of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 19 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: oh yeah..it's hilariously warm,...though it would be something above say 500' or whatever if you're far enough NW.. Yeah similar to 3/6/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 17 minutes ago, Heisy said: CMC almost tries to pull same thing but ULL can’t get going and trough is a little too progressive. Icon has a gfs progression, but doesn’t have nearly enough juice with left over energy. Let’s get some support from ukie or euro tonight . Yeah the CMC was a definite improvement aloft compared to the past several runs. But a blend with the GFS would likely pinch off and miss southeast. An EC solution anywhere close to the GFS would be huge - would go a long way towards making some wintry precipitation seem possible. Any significant negative trend the next two cycles and this is probably dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Shit everyone eduggs is here to save us. We’ve been in the desert just wandering waiting for him to lead us to the promised land. Hallelujah 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Ukie closes off the ULL well behind the lead front. Is well S though and only shows in the apps….still lends some credit towards a possible GFS solution. We would need to thread the needle here almost perfectly…Actually more favorable in S mid Atlantic on GEFS (remember factor in potential surface temps here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Not much support on the gefs but I guess there’s a chance. Super long shot but not zero 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 WB 0Z GFS…can we thread the needle and see a little snow on Saturday night??? Conservative snow depth map says rate dependent and favors NW areas. Surface temps marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Unfortunately rjvanals was right about the surface. It’s 34-37 across the area during the height of the snow. The depth map looks a lot worse for a reason. Yes 6-10” falls but at 35-36 degrees not much will accumulate. The real reason this is such a long shot is given the thermal reality we need the most extreme solutions, and even they are underwhelming, to have any shot. It’s not hopeless sometimes the extreme does happen. But in my experience when we need the most anomalous outcome in any setup to be correct it rarely works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 WB Day 3 Euro v. GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Day 4 comp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Euro is a miss… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Would not give up yet, but with this progressive flow, and temp profile need perfection or forget it. With 5 days to go still in the game…500mb are pretty close… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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