Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

the GFS has a pretty exotic evolution... it amplifies the trailing energy to the point that it cuts off from the flow and crushes the MA. wouldn't say that this is impossible, but I obviously want to see other models see this kind of thing

definitely caught me off guard though. was NOT expecting to see this

Yeah I'm not quite sure how or why the GFS is doing that.  It digs that damned wave so much that it cuts off as you say.  And it's incredibly sharp as it does so.  Literally would be like a snow bomb as depicted.  Exotic indeed.

Well, upon looking just a bit more at that loop you show, seems like the trough in the west which digs down past AZ might actually be causing or assisting the one to the east on the other side of the ridge to do what it does?  Maybe pumps that ridge just enough so that the downstream trough in the east can cut off?

[MD Snow]

57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why you teasing them?  Lol. This is why Ive been so confident we’re screwed all winter. The status quo temp profile is so warm that even on runs when almost everything goes perfect it’s still rain. Euro barely gives me like 2” of slop up here on a run with a perfect everything that should be a 6”+ easy.  
 

The only times we’ve been cold enough all winter was twice when a tpv was cruising by just to our north. But good luck getting something to work in that kind of flow. 
 

I think that’s one part some aren’t getting. If the temp profile is so atrocious that the only way to be cold enough is to have a tpv or some ridiculed amount of confluence right on top of us…ya ok. That’s not gonna work. We need to be cold enough when those features are actually further away giving waves room to amplify. 

Well, the gfs just gave you 6+" with everything working out perfectly. So I guess it's not completely impossible for people with elevation. I know we're screwed regardless in the lowlands but hoping you can get a nice event at some point before middle of march. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Bob Chill's bowling ball handbook says 'all aboard' - choo chooo 

But Chill never said "exotic"!!  OK...first dibs on a name here for any potential thread if this stupid thing materializes...We'll call it the "Exotic Storm."  With all due credit and hat tip to @brooklynwx99 of course! 

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Bob Chill's bowling ball handbook says 'all aboard' - choo chooo 

Can we have something break our way just 1 time this winter lol

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Can we have something break our way just 1 time this winter lol

 

This winter even fantasy snow hasn't broken our way...so even with this run we're already further than we have been 

[MD Snow]

Nice to see guidance possibly trending to something somewhat interesting inside of 5 days for once.


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[CAPE]

Hell of a signal on the GEFS. 

[RDM]

Been keeping tabs on the forum from afar in Japan, albeit with a shared feeling of despair.  Returning to the WMA Saturday.  Anything on Sunday would be the best welcome home present ever (since 09/10 after returning from Thailand), even snow TV would be fine.  

BTW - the big snow dumps a month ago on Honshu largely evaporated the last couple of weeks.  Even Fuji is nearly void of snow now except in the deeper gullies.  Very unusual for this time of year.  The attached picture was taken Monday Japan time from the Shinkansen.  

 

[NorthArlington101]

Ellinwood has been casually eyeing it. Was enough to have me watch the 12z runs, lol.

[Heisy]

Hell of a signal on the GEFS. 

I wouldn’t have expected every ensemble member to jump on this solution. There are def a few that have a similar progression though and I’d say the mean at least trended towards stretching the trough out and allowing a potential new low to form at base. Long shot but only thing worth tracking it seems for a while so…


.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

I wouldn’t have expected every ensemble member to jump on this solution. There are def a few that have a similar progression though and I’d say the mean at least trended towards stretching the trough out and allowing a potential new low to form at base. Long shot but only thing worth tracking it seems for a while so…
 

It's a long shot. You got that part right.

Head to the western highlands if you want a legit shot at a white SB Sunday. That has consistently been the signal for this period on the means. Nothing has changed.

[Heisy]

I wouldn’t have expected every ensemble member to jump on this solution. There are def a few that have a similar progression though and I’d say the mean at least trended towards stretching the trough out and allowing a potential new low to form at base. Long shot but only thing worth tracking it seems for a while so…


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This being said I’m not getting even a little bit excited unless we see 2-3 runs in a row and some other support.


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[Weather Will]

Have to be skeptical with just one run but since both EURO at 12Z and GFS at 18Z have a similar look inside 6 days, got my attention at 0Z….

[Xeonon]

Can we have something break our way just 1 time this winter lol
 

Not unless RIC can cash in too.


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[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

Uhhh….. major changes on 18z gfs. Looks like icon, stronger version of 12z euro



.

This isn’t me trying to be a Deb but I honestly don’t see the 18z Gfs as the win you do.  I see a lot of the same WTF BS I’ve been taking notes for my book a lot lately.   Let me explain.  
 

First if all look at what the synoptic setup is BEFORE the run goes kinda crazy and pops out a once a decade solution. 

look ANOTHER mid latitude system with no WAA snow associated with it to the north and northeast of the system. 
 

Then it does this…

Ya ok…sure. Be honest what’s the odds that happens?  That’s a 1/10 years type anomaly there.   And even with that look at this BS 

even with an amplifying system with a once a decade anomalous cutoff upper low slowly tracking under us it’s barely cold enough with rain mixing in all through the CCB.  
 

Ya it snows.  And I can see why at a glance that looks like a W run. But what I see is it taking a ridiculous probably not gonna happen once a decade type progression to get snow and even still it’s like 4” in DC from what should be a MECS setup given the Synoptics and time of year. I don’t think that’s being pessimistic it’s just being realistic. 
 

Sure that as shown there could happen.  It’s very unlikely but not impossible.  Eventually we will luck into some crazy anomaly.   And if it does I’ll get excited at some point.  But in the larger scheme if that’s what it takes to snow we’re still screwed.  That’s the kind of crazy anomalous progression places like Raleigh NC should need to get snow not here. 
 

Sorry if that’s too much of a downer after a “good” run but that’s how I see it. 

[Jersey Andrew]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This isn’t me trying to be a Deb but I honestly don’t see the 18z Gfs as the win you do.  I see a lot of the same WTF BS I’ve been taking notes for my book a lot lately.   Let me explain.  
 

First if all look at what the synoptic setup is BEFORE the run goes kinda crazy and pops out a once a decade solution. 

look ANOTHER mid latitude system with no WAA snow associated with it to the north and northeast of the system. 
 

Then it does this…

Ya ok…sure. Be honest what’s the odds that happens?  That’s a 1/10 years type anomaly there.   And even with that look at this BS 

even with an amplifying system with a once a decade anomalous cutoff upper low slowly tracking under us it’s barely cold enough with rain moving in all through the CCB.  
 

Ya it snows.  And I can see why at a glance that looks like a W run. But what I see is it taking a ridiculous probably not gonna happen once a decade type progression to get snow and even still it’s like 4” in DC from what should be a MECS setup given the Synoptics and time of year. I don’t think that’s being pessimistic it’s just being realistic. 
 

Sure that as shown there could happen.  It’s very unlikely but not impossible.  Eventually we will luck into some crazy anomaly.   And if it does I’ll get excited at some point.  But in the larger scheme if that’s what it takes to snow we’re still screwed.  That’s the kind of crazy anomalous progression places like Raleigh NC should need to get snow not here. 
 

Sorry if that’s too much of a downer after a “good” run but that’s how I see it. 

Not trying to make synoptic comparisons but did we luck into 2/12/2006? I remember that being a crappy winter and then that storm comes out of nowhere seemingly as I think the Japanese model showed it happening.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, MD Snow said:

Well, the gfs just gave you 6+" with everything working out perfectly. So I guess it's not completely impossible for people with elevation. I know we're screwed regardless in the lowlands but hoping you can get a nice event at some point before middle of march. 

Of course it’s not impossible. But my last post explained why it didnt leave me feeling too optimistic 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Not trying to make synoptic comparisons but did we luck into 2/12/2006? I remember that being a crappy winter and then that storm comes out of nowhere seemingly as I think the Japanese model showed it happening.

That’s not the worst comp ever. But I didn’t say it’s impossible. I estimated it as a once a decade type anomaly so going back to something from over 15 years ago doesn’t really refute the point that it’s a very rare unlikely type event. 

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Doors open, come on in folks

Don't do it man

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Don't do it man

[Weather Will]

The beauty of the weather is that only God knows today whether it is going to snow on Sunday.  I’m not optimistic or pessimistic, let’s see what 0Z says and go from there.

[87storms]

Looks like the Euro is better with temps at 18z Saturday, but quicker to move the system out.  Given how much of a drop in temps will be needed, I think we want more separation between these systems like the GFS is showing (even if it means a rain to snow setup).

[87storms]

Interestingly, the ensembles are the opposite...at least to my eyes, it looks like GEFS shows a slightly quicker system.  The wave isn't expected to reach the Pac NW until tomorrow, so might have another day of model madness.

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This isn’t me trying to be a Deb but I honestly don’t see the 18z Gfs as the win you do.  I see a lot of the same WTF BS I’ve been taking notes for my book a lot lately.   Let me explain.  
 

First if all look at what the synoptic setup is BEFORE the run goes kinda crazy and pops out a once a decade solution. 

look ANOTHER mid latitude system with no WAA snow associated with it to the north and northeast of the system. 
 

Then it does this…

Ya ok…sure. Be honest what’s the odds that happens?  That’s a 1/10 years type anomaly there.   And even with that look at this BS 

even with an amplifying system with a once a decade anomalous cutoff upper low slowly tracking under us it’s barely cold enough with rain mixing in all through the CCB.  
 

Ya it snows.  And I can see why at a glance that looks like a W run. But what I see is it taking a ridiculous probably not gonna happen once a decade type progression to get snow and even still it’s like 4” in DC from what should be a MECS setup given the Synoptics and time of year. I don’t think that’s being pessimistic it’s just being realistic. 
 

Sure that as shown there could happen.  It’s very unlikely but not impossible.  Eventually we will luck into some crazy anomaly.   And if it does I’ll get excited at some point.  But in the larger scheme if that’s what it takes to snow we’re still screwed.  That’s the kind of crazy anomalous progression places like Raleigh NC should need to get snow not here. 
 

Sorry if that’s too much of a downer after a “good” run but that’s how I see it. 

 

[clskinsfan]

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

Uhhh….. major changes on 18z gfs. Looks like icon, stronger version of 12z euro



.

If I had a dollar for every time I have been bullseyed by the models this year I would be a rich man. 

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This isn’t me trying to be a Deb but I honestly don’t see the 18z Gfs as the win you do.  I see a lot of the same WTF BS I’ve been taking notes for my book a lot lately.   Let me explain.  
 

First if all look at what the synoptic setup is BEFORE the run goes kinda crazy and pops out a once a decade solution. 

look ANOTHER mid latitude system with no WAA snow associated with it to the north and northeast of the system. 
 

Then it does this…

Ya ok…sure. Be honest what’s the odds that happens?  That’s a 1/10 years type anomaly there.   And even with that look at this BS 

even with an amplifying system with a once a decade anomalous cutoff upper low slowly tracking under us it’s barely cold enough with rain mixing in all through the CCB.  
 

Ya it snows.  And I can see why at a glance that looks like a W run. But what I see is it taking a ridiculous probably not gonna happen once a decade type progression to get snow and even still it’s like 4” in DC from what should be a MECS setup given the Synoptics and time of year. I don’t think that’s being pessimistic it’s just being realistic. 
 

Sure that as shown there could happen.  It’s very unlikely but not impossible.  Eventually we will luck into some crazy anomaly.   And if it does I’ll get excited at some point.  But in the larger scheme if that’s what it takes to snow we’re still screwed.  That’s the kind of crazy anomalous progression places like Raleigh NC should need to get snow not here. 
 

Sorry if that’s too much of a downer after a “good” run but that’s how I see it. 

It's such a shit pattern. I'm amazed that any model shows any snow on the east coast what so ever. But the Euro did Also try on the 12z run. And the icon also tried.  Here are 850 anomalies the day before and the day after the GFS shows our snow storm lol

It's amazing any model would show snow with this shit show of an air mass going on.

 

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's such a shit pattern. I'm amazed that any model shows any snow on the east coast what so ever. But the Euro did Also try on the 12z run. And the icon also tried.  Here are 850 anomalies the day before and the day after the GFS shows our snow storm lol

It's amazing any model would show snow with this shit show of an air mass going on.

 

What kind of an air pattern

[Weather Will]

18Z EPS not in the least enthused with a weekend snow storm…

[Kevin Reilly]

8 hours ago, 87storms said:

That ridge in the SE on the 12z GFS is the stuff of legends.  If you want snow, I suggest not even looking at that run and checking back at 18z...or in 2 weeks.

Better yet look at the GFS next year.

[Weather Will]

WB 2.6 EURO weeklies perhaps a last hurrah late February into mid March so don’t give up yet…