Rtd208 Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: Yep. Step back. From rain to rain . Shades of rain. Cold rain, cool rain and warm rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 As long as it isn't Chubby Rain* *Bowfinger reference 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 As it's Super Bowl weekend, my GUESS is that a ton of folks who don't already live there are going to be at the West Virginia ski resorts. I'm going to be in Davis, WV, myself. After total decimation of the snowpack by warm winds Thursday, worth watching the quick hit from the 2nd wave plus some short-lived upslope snow Saturday. God Bless Lake Erie being melted. slight enhancement of upslope moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 As long as it isn't Chubby Rain* *Bowfinger reference 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 That ridge in the SE on the 12z GFS is the stuff of legends. If you want snow, I suggest not even looking at that run and checking back at 18z...or in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Hr 324 lol on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Hr 324 lol on GFS The only way to get cold enough with a 560+ ridge over us is for such extreme confluence and suppressive flow that a shredded result is the most likely outcome. We went through this game last week. By far the most likely outcomes are a cutter or suppressed. And guidance was jumping back and forth and some though that was good because we just needed a compromise but that’s not how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Actually the guidance looks pretty good… for my trip to Colorado. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The only way to get cold enough with a 560+ ridge over us is for such extreme confluence and suppressive flow that a shredded result is the most likely outcome. We went through this game last week. By far the most likely outcomes are a cutter or suppressed. And guidance was jumping back and forth and some thought that was good because we just needed a compromise but that’s not how it works. Yeah, that’s how we rolling this Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Drove the X to Annapolis today to go to the Dr. As I drove down the street I saw that the red maples that get a lot of sun are already blooming...no joke. It's over. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: Drove the X to Annapolis today to go to the Dr. As I drove down the street I saw that the red maples that get a lot of sun are already blooming...no joke. It's over. Ok. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Euro nearly gets it done for Saturday…but those surface temps 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok. Did that reply give you the dopamine hit that you dreamed it would? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 5 hours ago, paulythegun said: As it's Super Bowl weekend, my GUESS is that a ton of folks who don't already live there are going to be at the West Virginia ski resorts. I'm going to be in Davis, WV, myself. After total decimation of the snowpack by warm winds Thursday, worth watching the quick hit from the 2nd wave plus some short-lived upslope snow Saturday. God Bless Lake Erie being melted. slight enhancement of upslope moisture. Just skied Timberline this past Saturday. Conditions were stellar! Weather was perfect. Hope you get some love after Thursdays torch. And don’t forget to drink local. Stumptown Ales rock! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 19 hours ago, BristowWx said: Yes, yes we do. The radio still works and it’s clear as a bell don’t ask me why lol i was driving with my daughter down in virginia this weekend and we passed a car that was beat to complete shit and i said do you feel this vehicle is safe for highway travel and my daughter gave me the yes i do, yes i really do...i can't remember being prouder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 28 minutes ago, Scraff said: Just skied Timberline this past Saturday. Conditions were stellar! Weather was perfect. Hope you get some love after Thursdays torch. And don’t forget to drink local. Stumptown Ales rock! Co-worker of mine has a dudes' weekend for the Super Bowl every year. They're going to Davis this year, so I told them to drop into Stumptown. Now...if only I could find a way to get there sometime. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Actually the guidance looks pretty good… for my trip to Colorado. The Rockies Rock for snow! enjoy your travels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Euro nearly gets it done for Saturday…but those surface temps Why you teasing them? Lol. This is why Ive been so confident we’re screwed all winter. The status quo temp profile is so warm that even on runs when almost everything goes perfect it’s still rain. Euro barely gives me like 2” of slop up here on a run with a perfect everything that should be a 6”+ easy. The only times we’ve been cold enough all winter was twice when a tpv was cruising by just to our north. But good luck getting something to work in that kind of flow. I think that’s one part some aren’t getting. If the temp profile is so atrocious that the only way to be cold enough is to have a tpv or some ridiculed amount of confluence right on top of us…ya ok. That’s not gonna work. We need to be cold enough when those features are actually further away giving waves room to amplify. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Why you teasing them? Lol. This is why Ive been so confident we’re screwed all winter. The status quo temp profile is so warm that even on runs when almost everything goes perfect it’s still rain. Euro barely gives me like 2” of slop up here on a run with a perfect everything that should be a 6”+ easy. The only times we’ve been cold enough all winter was twice when a tpv was cruising by just to our north. But good luck getting something to work in that kind of flow. I think that’s one part some aren’t getting. If the temp profile is so atrocious that the only way to be cold enough is to have a tpv or some ridiculed amount of confluence right on top of us…ya ok. That’s not gonna work. We need to be cold enough when those features are actually further away giving waves room to amplify. Uhhh….. major changes on 18z gfs. Looks like icon, stronger version of 12z euro. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Doors open, come on in folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Ok, so this is just one run, but we’ve seen miniature hints of this across other models. This would be a “make your own cold air” type event. Energy closes off while front of wave escapes east. Man, Can we get lucky one time?!. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Ok, so this is just one run, but we’ve seen miniature hints of this across other models. This would be a “make your own cold air” type event. Energy closes off while front of wave escapes east. Man, Can we get lucky one time?! . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 I noticed the 12z Ukie did something similar but didn’t leave enough energy with ULL to create anything… 18z icon kind of had same progression as well…Temps are gonna be an issue regardless. Looks like instead of diving into the trough the NS races ahead and you get the shortwave kind of pinned underneath everythingDefinite thread the needle…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Enjoy it while it lasts kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Just now, Heisy said: I noticed the 12z Ukie did something similar but didn’t leave enough energy with ULL to create anything… 18z icon kind of had same progression as well… Temps are gonna be an issue regardless. Looks like instead of diving into the trough the NS races ahead and you get the shortwave kind of pinned underneath everything Definite thread the needle… . 12z Euro hinted at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: I noticed the 12z Ukie did something similar but didn’t leave enough energy with ULL to create anything… 18z icon kind of had same progression as well… Temps are gonna be an issue regardless. Looks like instead of diving into the trough the NS races ahead and you get the shortwave kind of pinned underneath everything Definite thread the needle… . It is an interesting idea and potential, which has shown up at that time now and then. I'm not overly enthused right now, but, well, I guess it bears watching. WTF else have we got, right?!?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 the GFS has a pretty exotic evolution... it amplifies the trailing energy to the point that it cuts off from the flow and crushes the MA. wouldn't say that this is impossible, but I obviously want to see other models see this kind of thing definitely caught me off guard though. was NOT expecting to see this 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: the GFS has a pretty exotic evolution... it amplifies the trailing energy to the point that it cuts off from the flow and crushes the MA. wouldn't say that this is impossible, but I obviously want to see other models see this kind of thing definitely caught me off guard though. was NOT expecting to see this We haven’t been able to do easy or hard, maybe we can score with ‘exotic’. I mean why the fuck not! 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, GATECH said: We haven’t been able to do easy or hard, maybe we can score with ‘exotic’. I mean why the fuck not! Bob Chill's bowling ball handbook says 'all aboard' - choo chooo 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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