Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread

[CAPE]

Be sure to check out his latest blog this week to find out!

[eduggs]

Another slight tick better on the 18z GFS and ICON. The ICON is pretty far southeast now with the entire baroclinic zone, especially compared to other guidance. It already rotated a bit of snow through most places on the 12z. Only goes out to 120hrs at 18z though.

The 18z GEFS is also yet again better than last run. Much wetter on Sat through the Delmarva and back to the NW compared to 12z. Indicates more members showing a trailing coastal SLP with some precipitation lingering on the cold side.

[Ji]

Another slight tick better on the 18z GFS and ICON. The ICON is pretty far southeast now with the entire baroclinic zone, especially compared to other guidance. It already rotated a bit of snow through most places on the 12z. Only goes out to 120hrs at 18z though.
The 18z GEFS is also yet again better than last run. Much wetter on Sat through the Delmarva and back to the NW compared to 12z. Indicates more members showing a trailing coastal SLP with some precipitation lingering on the cold side.

When the op models say no…it’s a no


.

[IronTy]

I've been out of touch for a couple days now.  Do we still have the storm after the storm and the polar vortex sweeping in at 240hrs?

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I've been out of touch for a couple days now.  Do we still have the storm after the storm and the polar vortex sweeping in at 240hrs?

Sure. Whatever. 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I've been out of touch for a couple days now.  Do we still have the storm after the storm and the polar vortex sweeping in at 240hrs?

Yes, yes we do.  The radio still works and it’s clear as a bell don’t ask me why

[Solution Man]

39 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes, yes we do.  The radio still works and it’s clear as a bell don’t ask me why

Good grief, how we’ve evolved

[Daniel Boone]

Truckee California :

http://tahoetopia.com/webcam/downtown-truckee

[BristowWx]

17 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Good grief, how we’ve evolved

We’ve had crap periods in winter…I know but this winter for some reason is just brutal.  It’s just a relentless disaster day after day.  Ready for the spring bullet to end it.  Regroup for next winter.  

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

We’ve had crap periods in winter…I know but this winter for some reason is just brutal.  It’s just a relentless disaster day after day.  Ready for the spring bullet to end it.  Regroup for next winter.  

Gotta say I agree with you brother. @Wonderdog and you gotta join me at a local bar soon and toast in some warm weather. As @stormtracker says, “I’m Tired”

[Chris78]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

When the op models say no…it’s a no


.

And when the OP models say yes..... it's still a no. 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Sure. Whatever. 

Thanks for the detailed synopsis.  

[Maestrobjwa]

Man the next time we actually get a snowstorm, we're gonna be so jaded going in we won't believe it even if it's a classic Miller A with enough cold and consistent model runs of a crushing 2 Days away, lol

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Yes, yes we do.  The radio still works and it’s clear as a bell don’t ask me why

Awesome.  I was gonna put away the -20F sleeping bags for the year but with the latest GFS I feel we need to write it plain and accept that -30DFN is on the table.  At 300Hrs...of course.  

[IronTy]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Man the next time we actually get a snowstorm we're gonna be so jaded going in we won't believe it even if it's a classic Miller A with enough cold and consistent model runs of a crushing 2 Days away, lol

Sorry to hear you're drinking again.  

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man the next time we actually get a snowstorm we're gonna be so jaded going in we won't believe it even if it's a classic Miller A with enough cold and consistent model runs of a crushing 2 Days away, lol

Don’t take offense, I’ve been skipping over your posts without reading them… but for this once, you actually said something pretty insightful. 

Next time we’re staring down a MECS/HECS, we won’t believe it until halfway through the event and we haven’t dry slotted or mixed. 

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Truckee California :

http://tahoetopia.com/webcam/downtown-truckee

Glad they’re getting snow - almost makes up for living in California. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Yes, yes we do.  The radio still works and it’s clear as a bell don’t ask me why

It’s the darndest thing officer

[pazzo83]

Yikes...  looks like the lake effect machine will be running wire-to-wire for folks who've already been blasted so far this winter.

 

[WEATHER53]

Mongolian . High pressure starting 12th -15th and effects here 7-10 days later!!

[Stormfly]

33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s the darndest thing officer

Those aren't pillows!

[anotherman]

Those aren't pillows!

[eduggs]

0z ICON coming in with a not unexpected shift towards the 18z GFS. Warmer and wetter than 18z. Hopefully the GFS makes a similar shift to meet it. Otherwise the multi cycle favorable trend may be over. The 0z ICON does manage to close off the mid-levels and get a coastal SLP going, but too late for most except primarily SNE. But can't say it looks too far off for something more widespread and wintry.

[eduggs]

A step back from the GFS and slight step forward from the CMC (but flat). Neither are inspiring. Status quo for now. Chances for snow continue to look slim outside the distant NW elevated terrain.

I did notice the GFS closing off 500mb... just too far north unfortunately. Also lower heights in Atlanta than Syracuse, however brief, is a trof worth paying attention to.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, nj2va said:

Glad they’re getting snow - almost makes up for living in California. 

Yep, lol

[Ji]

A step back from the GFS and slight step forward from the CMC (but flat). Neither are inspiring. Status quo for now. Chances for snow continue to look slim outside the distant NW elevated terrain.
I did notice the GFS closing off 500mb... just too far north unfortunately. Also lower heights in Atlanta than Syracuse, however brief, is a trof worth paying attention to.

Yep. Step back. From rain to rain


.

[MD Snow]

As it has been pointed out countless times, the only real way we're going to get snow this year will be by getting lucky or a fluke. Wave on the heels of a cold front, weak overrunning etc.  Imo, our next chance of backing into a fluke event would after Feb 18 or so through the end of the month. Something to at least watch. May be our last shot of at least seeing flakes. 

 

The look below is supported by both the GEPS and EPS. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

43 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yep. Step back. From rain to rain


.

The SSWE and potential SPV split look has held....so March could still throw us a fluke.

[psuhoffman]

11 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Don’t take offense, I’ve been skipping over your posts without reading them… but for this once, you actually said something pretty insightful. 

Next time we’re staring down a MECS/HECS, we won’t believe it until halfway through the event and we haven’t dry slotted or mixed. 

I get it, the whole not believing it will snow, but on the other hand it’s not like guidance has been teasing us and pulling the rug. Not a single threat has made it inside day 7!  And even some of the times some were trying to be super optimistic about a day 10-15 look I was thinking Naw that’s probably not gonna work. The guidance has been clear in saying we’re fucked.  So if we can get a legit good look with actual cold air inside day 5 that’s something new and I’ll be interested.  Not saying it won’t fail we suck at that too but these day 15 fails dont even count imo. 

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I get it, the whole not believing it will snow, but on the other hand it’s not like guidance has been teasing us and pulling the rug. Not a single threat has made it inside day 7!  And even some of the times some were trying to be super optimistic about a day 10-15 look I was thinking Naw that’s probably not gonna work. The guidance has been clear in saying we’re fucked.  So if we can get a legit good look with actual cold air inside day 5 that’s something new and I’ll be interested.  Not saying it won’t fail we suck at that too but these day 15 fails dont even count imo. 

Yeah I get that. My comment was more of a reflection of the forum’s overall mood than the models itself, though. Sometimes I try to make light of the situation because… it’s just weather.