WEATHER53 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 42 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Yes it was 2001/2002. Thanks and that is great recollection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z EPS has a coastal storm look but not cold enough. A decent signal for frozen for the western highlands at this point. Well let's step into this...mountains get a storm maybe the next one can be cold enough for all *weenie hopium dose* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Living in the lowlands I’m well aware of my fate most winters. At this point, in this winter, I just want someone to score. I’m rooting for areas to the north and west to at least get one solid event. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Living in the lowlands I’m well aware of my fate most winters. At this point, in this winter, I just want someone to score. At present, Beavis and Butthead currently have the better chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 GFS - Says - Let's do the same old GL low and not look good anymore! LOL! Lame year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Well, the GFS storm isnt anywhere near as "good" as 12z. I know. Shocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, the GFS storm isnt anywhere near as "good" as 12z. I know. Shocking. It's not that far off though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: It's not that far off though. Mostly agree. I think something is definitely up with the Euro sniffing something out around the same time period. Likely to be rain anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Mostly agree. I think something is definitely up with the Euro sniffing something out around the same time period. Likely to be rain anyway Probably rain, but at least we can tune in with half-hearted interest to see what happens for each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 20 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: GFS - Says - Let's do the same old GL low and not look good anymore! LOL! Lame year! The Great Lakes Low has been around for a few years now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 26 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: The Great Lakes Low has been around for a few years now. I think in general that's more of a nina thing. But yes the GL low ruins weenie dreams...it's just what it does, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 45 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I think in general that's more of a nina thing. But yes the GL low ruins weenie dreams...it's just what it does, lol It's a general symptom of a not so good pattern. When we have a favorable pattern (NA block) there is a tendency for more HP around the lakes into eastern Canada(lower heights east of there), with disturbances approaching from the SW. What we are dealing with lately is largely the antithesis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 It's a general symptom of a not so good pattern. When we have a favorable pattern (NA block) there is a tendency for more HP around the lakes into eastern Canada(lower heights east of there), with disturbances approaching from the SW. What we are dealing with lately is largely the antithesis.Yea for this system to work out as advertised we would probably need that lead wave to disrupt the flow and have the main one dig far enough S. Thing is there’s no blocking leading up to it so it will likely be more progressive then some models showing. Long shot, but ya never know . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 I’ll be in Ohio from 2/10-2/13 for Super Bowl weekend. It’s a yearly tradition where a bunch of my childhood friends get together just outside Toledo. That will be the weekend it finally snows here, watch! I got lucky when I went up to Albany and Rochester a few weeks back. Doubt it happens a third time. So, book it, between 2/10-2/13 we see an east coast snowstorm. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Sure is a nice ridge out west on the 00z GFS at 156... too bad no s/w coming down in the Plains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 minute ago, yoda said: Sure is a nice ridge out west on the 00z GFS at 156... too bad no s/w coming down in the Plains Nope just a GL low instead...mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 lol banana high at 174 but the airmass is such garbage ahead and the SLP just goes running through our region... yet its pounding snow in parts of N VA and C MD at 180 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 00z CMC still focused on the first storm with no second one like the GFS came up with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 00z CMC still focused on the first storm with no second one like the GFS came up withI haven't seen one model run this winter where two models agree on a snowstorm for our area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 So the 0z Euro kinda tried to do a thing from 186-192...high hangs around for a bit before sliding away and giving some frozen on the backend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 6z gfs terrible. Another cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 Eps seems fairly workable by Feb 19 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 0z GEFS has the cutter late next week, then there are a handful of members that suggest coastal low development for next weekend. 3 or 4 manage to snow on us. Weak signal for frozen. EPS depicts a more clearly defined separation between the late week storm and a developing coastal low just beyond that. A good chunk of the members suggest trailing energy along the boundary, while others have some sort of secondary development from the lead system. Temps look very marginal on the mean until after most of the precip exits. Modest signal for frozen outside of the western higher terrain. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Eps seems fairly workable by Feb 29 Fyp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Eps seems fairly workable by Feb 19 Yeah continuing to see hints, especially on the EPS and CMC ens, of a somewhat improved h5 pattern for beyond mid month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 12 hours ago, CAPE said: It's a general symptom of a not so good pattern. When we have a favorable pattern (NA block) there is a tendency for more HP around the lakes into eastern Canada(lower heights east of there), with disturbances approaching from the SW. What we are dealing with lately is largely the antithesis. Classic example. Maybe someday we will see this setup again. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Classic example. Maybe someday we will see this setup again. Instead, I think we need 15 pages (in 9 different threads) explaining why that will apparently never happen ever again. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 35 minutes ago, nj2va said: Instead, I think we need 15 pages (in 9 different threads) explaining why that will apparently never happen ever again. That example was from a pattern that produced a KU, but many of the significant snow events for the MA lowlands have that general look. More recent example is the March 2018 storm. eta- also an example of HP being 'locked in place' , vs a progressive flow regime where HP is steadily moving as the area of upper level convergence/confluence that induced it moves with the flow. Need even more luck with timing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 14 hours ago, Heisy said: Yea for this system to work out as advertised we would probably need that lead wave to disrupt the flow and have the main one dig far enough S. Thing is there’s no blocking leading up to it so it will likely be more progressive then some models showing. Long shot, but ya never know . Blocking is not a full on requirement for it to snow in the MA. Do we need it for a HECS? Sure. But it snows all the time this time of the year just as it is advertised on GFS. One thing I do like is that the spread on the ensemble members show a lot of lows to our south. I think it might be having a hard time differentiating btw the first system and the second one, however the trend on the 6z was south, with a big trough digging in to the southeast part of the country.. if the 12Z runs continue that trend, we will have a nice snow storm to track. Has anyone post the ensemble member snowfall maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now