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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


Ji
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17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

D9-10 euro looks nice until you check low level temps

Maybe if we’re really lucky and everything goes absolutely perfectly in every synoptic variable and we get perfect timing and wave spacing we can get a trailing system to take a 100% perfect track along with a perfect track vigorous mid and upper level SW during our snowiest month and 

0F453AB0-C3CC-457D-83B7-D518CC0E26DD.thumb.gif.47d9f111044ec5d1a531cd4213568ca2.gif
 

FUCK 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There is no high to the east so what will they find to blame now?  Solar flare? Underwater volcano? 

you didnt show this part here were there is heavy snow. This is basically going to be the Feb 2006 wet noreaster than gave us 13 inches and melted 13 minutes later

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

you didnt show this part here were there is heavy snow. This is basically going to be the Feb 2006 wet noreaster than gave us 13 inches and melted 13 minutes later

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png

And with the High coming I behind it instead of scooting away...I'd rather take a chance with that. Even if it can't get better than this panel we could at least get something in such a scenario.

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i mentioned this in other posts...about 4-5 times this year, the euro has given us a great solution(remember the 15 inches it gave us 10 days ago for this coming weekend)....only to take it away 12 hours later and never to be seen again

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Stop it, we are talking about snowfall and how warmer temperatures are impacting snowfall. 

Can't we just stick to talking about Feb., our snowiest month, and the fact we have something to track for the next 6 hours

Also, we didn't agree to a name of the thread yet, I don't think.

 

Please :begging emoji:

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Just now, Terpeast said:


Steering the discussion back on topic…

To be fair, I would take this chance every time. 10/10

Consulting weenie handbook to keep the positive vibes going on the thread......

:weenie: 1) The big ones are sniffed out early

:weenie: 2) Jan 2016 was modeled as a rainstorm about this far out

 

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9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

So, I've seen the headlines about record cold in China. To what extent does Arctic air being dumped on the other side of the globe limit the potential for a cold air mass in NA? And is this driven/predicted by -PNA/ENSO, or other indices? 

Often we are coldest when the PV is displaced to our side of the pole and vice versa.  However there is also the fact Asia is much more insulated from the effects of the warmer oceans.  So not sure how much correlation to our current problems we can attribute what happens over there.  

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4 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

Seems like the other hemisphere has had a lot of anomalous cold the past few years while we get crumbs of it at our latitude. Tat is something I want to research and learn about. 

It's been discussed some.  Warmer mid latitudes would tend to consolidate the TPV which would naturally make places like Siberia even colder.  Add in the fact they are much less influenced by maritime air like we are.  Kind of a see saw effect going on there to some extent.  

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Why must everyone keep talking about this in the medium/long range thread!?? 

it really isn't that hard to make a distinction between the "WHAT" (our current warmer base state and its impacts on sensible weather) and the "WHY" attribution posts (AGW, green men on the moon, underwater surface-level volcanoes, cow farts, etc). "WHAT" is unavoidable and is clearly a necessary part of the disco, whereas the "WHY" belongs in the other threads.

I think some people are being deliberately obtuse in their refusal to recognize the distinction -- so unless a mod wants to start moving all the "WHY" posts to the proper threads it will unfortunately probably continue.   :facepalm:

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

How much do we have to pay the good folks of Zealandia and Oceania to....I don't know....constantly pass gas?? into their portion of the ocean to ensure this is a west based Nino?

We need barges of cows anchored out there somewhere lol

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Just now, CAPE said:

As predicted, a new LR thread would just be overwhelmed by the same shit as the last one lol. There isn't any new positive vibe to be had at this juncture.

Only Spring can save us from ourselves now. B)

I think we have some good chances left this winter.  Feb. 10-12 is a chance.  I think people were over-analyzing a Day 10 Euro op run earlier.  Let’s watch the ensembles and hopefully get something to track that can change the vibe for all of us snow lovers!

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14 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I think we have some good chances left this winter.  Feb. 10-12 is a chance.  I think people were over-analyzing a Day 10 Euro op run earlier.  Let’s watch the ensembles and hopefully get something to track that can change the vibe for all of us snow lovers!

I made a post about that period this morning. I guess no one noticed lol. It could work out for inland areas at elevation if the timing is right. The synoptic set up as depicted is more problematic for the lowlands.

eta- I was being facetious in that post, mostly. I don't think winter is over, but the creation of the new thread was supposed to quell the gloom/doom and whinging- but if anything it has ramped up more.

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15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I made a post about that period this morning. I guess no one noticed lol. It could work out for inland areas at elevation if the timing is right. The synoptic set up as depicted is more problematic for the lowlands.

I noticed it!  Probably because I am an inlander at elevation lol. But it is much more fun in here when we all score, so I root for that all day every day.

And thanks for posting great analysis.  Appreciate the hopeful but honest takes from you and brooklyn and many others on here.  

You all have taught this Yankee who grew up with plenty of snow in upstate NY in the 80s a lot about the science behind snow.  Happy hour is upon us shortly.  Cheers!  

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33 minutes ago, CAPE said:

eta- I was being facetious in that post, mostly. I don't think winter is over, but the creation of the new thread was supposed to quell the gloom/doom and whinging- but if anything it has ramped up more.

Agreed.  If one truly thinks that things are so desperately bad that we can’t snow well in the MA anymore, then why visit this medium to long range thread?  

It makes no sense to me.  The only good reason to devote this many hours to a hobby that hasn’t produced much in the last several years for many in the sub is because one thinks it can snow well still.  If one doesn’t think so, aren’t they kind of trolling us?  On the other hand, if one does think it can still snow big and/or often, why keep pointing out the failures over the last few years and insinuating that this is the new permanent base state?

ETA:  for the record, I believe it can and will snow big and often again in the MA.  In the meantime, I will be tracking my ass off until it happens!  Lol

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