jayyy Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 You know we are desperate when we are comparing HRRR to radar, in Arkansas. A wise woman once said to enjoy it while you can! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, mappy said: You know we are desperate when we are comparing HRRR to radar, in Arkansas. Very true. I can't remember the last time I tracked a potential coating snowfall so closely. God help us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 To the naked eye on my cell phone, the main driver of the differences between models / individual runs doesn’t seem to be track. All of the models show something pretty similar in that regard. The difference seems to be whether or not the low is more or less organized and whether the wave gets torn apart by the Apps. The solutions with a more organized wave have a more mature precip shield. Snow is definitely heavier and the extent of the precip shield is further north. CMC HRR ICON all look pretty decent for CMD and points S and E. The latest HRRR adjusted north with the precip shield, but the track itself remained pretty identical. 2-4 hours of heavy snow for the DC - BAL corridor per the HRRR would leave a lot of folks smiling - minor event or not. Would be really nice to see us come out on the winning side of a potential wave, even if it’s not a biggie. Loss after loss after loss when you’re tracking is just as depressing than the lack of snow itself. . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: The solutions with a more organized wave have a more mature precip shield. Snow is definitely heavier and the extent of the precip shield is further north. CMC HRR ICON all look pretty decent for CMD and points S and E. Hedging my bets on the NAVGEM. Snow is going to last until tomorrow afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 18z NAM 3k has something vs 12z having nothing so we got that going for us 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 18z RGEM is gonna be a substantial bump up from its recent runs looking at the quick CMC maps. Waiting for better graphics but it looks like a 6hr storm at DCA with 3 good hours in there. Don't think its back to where it was a 24+ hours ago, but I'm interested 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z RGEM is gonna be a substantial bump up from its recent runs looking at the quick CMC maps. Waiting for better graphics but it looks like a 6hr storm at DCA with 3 good hours in there. Don't think its back to where it was a 24+ hours ago, but I'm interested Guess I will have to stay up late. Hate that but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 boom? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: boom? I believe models are still playing catch up. My belief from start was that the moisture was being too aggressively chewed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 rn i think around 0-0.25 for where i'm at (central MD) bc honestly 1" seems kinda outta the scope like what rgem shows definitely exciting trends tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 19z hrrr was pretty bad fwiw but there's always one or two bad runs of the hrrr day of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Feels like every storm that juices up to make us all giddy and reality says nope. I’ll take any surprises tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said: 19z hrrr was pretty bad fwiw but there's always one or two bad runs of the hrrr day of The last decent HRRR run was 16z IMO. If you want to be on the weenie train, I'm rolling the infallible (lol) EURO/CMC/RGEM power combo. Unless something better comes around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: @psuhoffman You gonna do a quick probability line up now that the event has trended a bit better for tomorrow? No ensembles aren’t that useful at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Happy Hour 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 we alr have a general idea of what's going to happen, C-0.5" for most people and maybe up to an inch in isolated spots if a band of heavy snow forms. atp models in general, esp globals/ensembles aren't useful and its just better to watch and nowcast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: we alr have a general idea of what's going to happen, C-0.5" for most people and maybe up to an inch in isolated spots if a band of heavy snow forms. atp models in general, esp globals/ensembles aren't useful and its just better to watch and nowcast This is 100% true but it won't stop me from analyzing every 15m interval on the HRRR. Don't look now but the 20z is substantially jucier into VA. 20z 19z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Happy Hour Save the 18 for another event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Save the 18 for another event. You, @Wonderdog and I will one day go top shelf for a big event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: You, @Wonderdog and I will one day go top shelf for a big event Yes. Big event now might be a 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, mappy said: You know we are desperate when we are comparing HRRR to radar, in Arkansas. Lancaster PA peep who is in Arkansas this week for work - forecast for here was light freezing rain mixed with sleet this afternoon, result has been heavy sleet with several rounds of lightning and thunder. NWS Little Rock acknowledging that this wave has significantly overperformed for both amounts and obviously, impacts. Hopefully that translates well further NE of here. 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 20z hrrr would make moco folks very happy, banding of snow for 2 hours+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I may have looked at the latest RAP...(desperate times). Looks like it gets about 0.08" into DC...but temps are so marginal..maybe I can get a shrub topper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 This is our super bowl folks..........enjoy every flake. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 What are the current and projected 850’s? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 HH GFS getting it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: HH GFS getting it done. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Dover to SNJ bullseye lol 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Minor event, but is this possibly going to go the right way towards game time for a change? 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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