AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 34/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 We are trending between 0 and flurries and back to 0…. And I do this for fun?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Trending the wrong way for who? Everyone. The temps aren’t colder. It’s just weaker with the precip. This isn’t a case where a south trend helps places south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 50 minutes ago, Cobalt said: About the best time to see a run like this take place. At least it goes from So MD to PA border so not so narrow that 30 miles screws things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Everyone. The temps aren’t colder. It’s just weaker with the precip. This isn’t a case where a south trend helps places south. Well it was never good to begin with. I expect nothing. Weaker precip means rain or mix. New levels of shitty outcomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 5 pages of scotch and beer pics for 34 degree mangled flakes falling for a couple hours… wow, desperate times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 LMFAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Not liking the latest hrrr runs either, but a comparison between hrrr’s depiction of current radar and the actual radar shows precip is overperforming. At least on the extent of light precip into northern KY, while hrrr keeps it to the southern half of KY. Might mean nothing though 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Haven't tracked this at all but HRRR can change on a dime in a single run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 i remember hrrr downtrended before 1/7/2022 and 3/12/2022 last year, both events that ended up working out and over performing. no point worrying about what models say like 5 hours before onset for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 The shitty HRRR aside, the general idea across guidance hasn't changed very much. Euro tends to do this at the bitter end after being dry af for a hundred runs, so not sure how much stock I would put in it. Most of the guidance suggests less than an inch (not the damn snow maps) with places south of DC to Dover most likely having enough precip to get it done.. if it is cold enough while precip is actually falling. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: The shitty HRRR aside, the general idea across guidance hasn't changed very much. Euro tends to do this at the bitter end after being dry af for a hundred runs, so not sure how much stock I would put in it. Most of the guidance suggests less than an inch (not the damn snow maps) with places south of DC to Dover most likely having enough precip to get it done.. if it is cold enough while precip is actually falling. hrrr seems much better at 00z, proving that u can't rlly put much stock into one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Just now, AtlanticWx said: hrrr seems much better at 00z, proving that u can't rlly put much stock into one run For a hi res super short range model that updates every hour, not sure what it's good for if that's the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: For a hi res super short range model that updates every hour, not sure what it's good for if that's the case. i meant in the sense that one run being bad isn't the end of the world like it seems in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: i meant in the sense that one run being bad isn't the end of the world like it seems in this forum People acknowledging ALL evidence and analyzing it is not the end of the world. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 About the best time to see a run like this take place. Hahaha of course it mini jacks my backyard . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO Snow depth…. thats fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xeonon Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Dusting incoming for all. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: People acknowledging ALL evidence and analyzing it is not the end of the world. yeah i understand, im just saying it goes both ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 This will be a good test for the HRRR. And my money says it fails it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 It might be important that we all do this. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 The radar looks like its starting to fire up and has that winter look. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=LWX-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current/shd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 0z hrrr trended better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Just now, Deck Pic said: 0z hrrr trended better That’s its thing. 10 different looks in 10 hours. I do like news that it’s better. But that euro run … 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 47 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: LMFAO I'm not sure any model provokes an audible groan more than the SREF...I think even the JMA has more respect, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 44 minutes ago, nj2va said: Haven't tracked this at all but HRRR can change on a dime in a single run. Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 16 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: The radar looks like its starting to fire up and has that winter look. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=LWX-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current/shd It really is lighting up down SW…temps me worried yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Need 850 check. Bring me that and a Turley leg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 NAM! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Just got a 22/23 winter version of being NAM’d. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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