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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Snow/Sleet/Misery Obs & Disco


NorthArlington101
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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Everyone. The temps aren’t colder.   It’s just weaker with the precip. This isn’t a case where a south trend helps places south. 

Well it was never good to begin with.  I expect nothing.  Weaker precip means rain or mix.  New levels of shitty outcomes 

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Not liking the latest hrrr runs either, but a comparison between hrrr’s depiction of current radar and the actual radar shows precip is overperforming.

At least on the extent of light precip into northern KY, while hrrr keeps it to the southern half of KY. 

Might mean nothing though 

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The shitty HRRR aside, the general idea across guidance hasn't changed very much. Euro tends to do this at the bitter end after being dry af for a hundred runs, so not sure how much stock I would put in it. Most of the guidance suggests less than an inch (not the damn snow maps) with places south of DC to Dover most likely having enough precip to get it done.. if it is cold enough while precip is actually falling.

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The shitty HRRR aside, the general idea across guidance hasn't changed very much. Euro tends to do this at the bitter end after being dry af for a hundred runs, so not sure how much stock I would put in it. Most of the guidance suggests less than an inch (not the damn snow maps) with places south of DC to Dover most likely having enough precip to get it done.. if it is cold enough while precip is actually falling.

hrrr seems much better at 00z, proving that u can't rlly put much stock into one run

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