Weather Will Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Will be on the 4:50 train to DC…would be cool if there is a little snow on the way down from Brunswick….hopefully won’t hit a snow drift on the way to the train station and have to call out…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 if only the hrrr was as bullish as the euro, i'll take what i cna get tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Ik you aren't supposed to look at models this close but that euro run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 1/31/2023 at 11:56 PM, CAPE said: Expand 3 runs ago lol GFS and RGEM may end up doing the best overall sniffing this one out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Euro and hrrr are worlds apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:03 AM, WxUSAF said: Wooo baby LFGooooooo!! Expand Montgomery/Howard County Jack lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 534 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 VAZ025-026-029-503-504-508-010645- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.230201T0500Z-230201T1400Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Page-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 534 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Augusta, Highland, Page, and Rockingham Counties and the central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The greatest chance for snow and ice accumulations will be in the higher elevations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 what's w/ the HRRR being so south compared to most guidance? just HRRR-the-night-before shenanigans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Nonevent on WB 22Z HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:22 AM, AtlanticWx said: what's w/ the HRRR being so south compared to most guidance? just HRRR-the-night-before shenanigans? Expand RAP got even better tho! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:26 AM, AtlanticWx said: RAP got even better tho! Expand That looks south of previous rap I saw though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 drizzling again, 36/31. Wasn’t it supposed to dry out temporarily? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:29 AM, psuhoffman said: That looks south of previous rap I saw though. Expand it looks the same, it got better around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:22 AM, AtlanticWx said: what's w/ the HRRR being so south compared to most guidance? just HRRR-the-night-before shenanigans? Expand No idea but I remember in March 2018 there was an event where northern MD was supposed to get 4-8” the next morning. All 12z and 18z guidance had it. Then around 20z the hrrr started going to crap. Someone said “don’t worry the euro isn’t going to be that wrong 24 hours out, I’ll die on that hill”. Most were ignoring the hrrr Then the 0z NAM came out and shifted everything 100 miles east also. The rest of the 0z followed suit. HRRR sniffed it out between runs. My take is no one hrrr run means much. But it’s troubling if over 3+ consecutive runs it starts trending the wrong way inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:33 AM, Terpeast said: drizzling again, 36/31. Wasn’t it supposed to dry out temporarily? Expand looks like a rain snow mix here, can't tell tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:34 AM, psuhoffman said: No idea but I remember in March 2018 there was an event where northern MD was supposed to get 4-8” the next morning. All 12z and 18z guidance had it. Then around 20z the hrrr started going to crap. Someone said “don’t worry the euro isn’t going to be that wrong 24 hours out, I’ll die on that hill”. Most were ignoring the hrrr Then the 0z NAM came out and shifted everything 100 miles east also. The rest of the 0z followed suit. HRRR sniffed it out between runs. My take is no one hrrr run means much. But it’s troubling if over 3+ consecutive runs it starts trending the wrong way inside 24 hours. Expand hm, we're probably fine then. 20z and 22z i think were both good runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Where LWX thinks the cut off is going to be. Such a straight line… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 isn't it good that we haven't dried out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:34 AM, AtlanticWx said: it looks the same, it got better around here Expand I looked just not, it got wetter but it’s trending south. 3 runs ago it had the max snow band up near PA now it’s south of DC 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:38 AM, psuhoffman said: I looked just not, it got wetter but it’s trending south. 3 runs ago it had the max snow band up near PA now it’s south of DC Expand oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:35 AM, AtlanticWx said: hm, we're probably fine then. 20z and 22z i think were both good runs Expand I was curious. I’ve not been watching. Frankly a 1” event doesn’t excite me much but I wish luck to all those who do care! Been doing things with the kids. But just pulled up the last 5 hrrr runs. They’re clearly trending the wrong way. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Keep in mind though we’re talking about placing fairly minor banding accurately. If this was a larger system we wouldn’t expect a meso banding feature like this to be accurately depicted. It shouldn’t be shocking if a .5-1” band set up anywhere because we’re talking less than a tenth inch of qpf to make that difference here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:41 AM, psuhoffman said: I was curious. I’ve not been watching. Frankly a 1” event doesn’t excite me much but I wish luck to all those who do care! Been doing things with the kids. But just pulled up the last 5 hrrr runs. They’re clearly trending the wrong way. Expand Trending the wrong way for who? 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:41 AM, psuhoffman said: I was curious. I’ve not been watching. Frankly a 1” event doesn’t excite me much but I wish luck to all those who do care! Been doing things with the kids. But just pulled up the last 5 hrrr runs. They’re clearly trending the wrong way. I don’t know about trending the wrong way, it’s just never liked this one. Minus that fifth run you mentioned it’s always showed the best stuff south and it’s been basically a non-event. I actually liked the 23z better since it at least has a semi-organized band of .5” somewhere, even if somewhere is SW of DC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:45 AM, NorthArlington101 said: I don’t know about trending the wrong way, it’s just never liked this one. Minus that fifth run you mentioned it’s always showed the best stuff south and it’s been basically a non-event. I actually liked the 23z better since it at least has a semi-organized band of .5” somewhere. Expand We’re talking such a minor feature here it’s likely for some guidance to be missing something. No way to know which though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 34/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 We are trending between 0 and flurries and back to 0…. And I do this for fun?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:44 AM, BristowWx said: Trending the wrong way for who? Expand Everyone. The temps aren’t colder. It’s just weaker with the precip. This isn’t a case where a south trend helps places south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 1/31/2023 at 11:56 PM, Cobalt said: About the best time to see a run like this take place. Expand At least it goes from So MD to PA border so not so narrow that 30 miles screws things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:48 AM, psuhoffman said: Everyone. The temps aren’t colder. It’s just weaker with the precip. This isn’t a case where a south trend helps places south. Expand Well it was never good to begin with. I expect nothing. Weaker precip means rain or mix. New levels of shitty outcomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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