LeesburgWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 5 pages of scotch and beer pics for 34 degree mangled flakes falling for a couple hours… wow, desperate times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 LMFAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Not liking the latest hrrr runs either, but a comparison between hrrr’s depiction of current radar and the actual radar shows precip is overperforming. At least on the extent of light precip into northern KY, while hrrr keeps it to the southern half of KY. Might mean nothing though 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Haven't tracked this at all but HRRR can change on a dime in a single run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 i remember hrrr downtrended before 1/7/2022 and 3/12/2022 last year, both events that ended up working out and over performing. no point worrying about what models say like 5 hours before onset for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 The shitty HRRR aside, the general idea across guidance hasn't changed very much. Euro tends to do this at the bitter end after being dry af for a hundred runs, so not sure how much stock I would put in it. Most of the guidance suggests less than an inch (not the damn snow maps) with places south of DC to Dover most likely having enough precip to get it done.. if it is cold enough while precip is actually falling. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 1:03 AM, CAPE said: The shitty HRRR aside, the general idea across guidance hasn't changed very much. Euro tends to do this at the bitter end after being dry af for a hundred runs, so not sure how much stock I would put in it. Most of the guidance suggests less than an inch (not the damn snow maps) with places south of DC to Dover most likely having enough precip to get it done.. if it is cold enough while precip is actually falling. Expand hrrr seems much better at 00z, proving that u can't rlly put much stock into one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 1:09 AM, AtlanticWx said: hrrr seems much better at 00z, proving that u can't rlly put much stock into one run Expand For a hi res super short range model that updates every hour, not sure what it's good for if that's the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 1:13 AM, CAPE said: For a hi res super short range model that updates every hour, not sure what it's good for if that's the case. Expand i meant in the sense that one run being bad isn't the end of the world like it seems in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 1:15 AM, AtlanticWx said: i meant in the sense that one run being bad isn't the end of the world like it seems in this forum Expand People acknowledging ALL evidence and analyzing it is not the end of the world. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 1/31/2023 at 11:56 PM, Cobalt said: About the best time to see a run like this take place. Hahaha of course it mini jacks my backyard . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:01 AM, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO Snow depth…. Expand thats fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xeonon Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Dusting incoming for all. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 1:18 AM, psuhoffman said: People acknowledging ALL evidence and analyzing it is not the end of the world. Expand yeah i understand, im just saying it goes both ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 This will be a good test for the HRRR. And my money says it fails it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 It might be important that we all do this. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 The radar looks like its starting to fire up and has that winter look. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=LWX-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current/shd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 1:32 AM, Deck Pic said: 0z hrrr trended better Expand That’s its thing. 10 different looks in 10 hours. I do like news that it’s better. But that euro run … 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:53 AM, AtlanticWx said: LMFAO Expand I'm not sure any model provokes an audible groan more than the SREF...I think even the JMA has more respect, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 12:58 AM, nj2va said: Haven't tracked this at all but HRRR can change on a dime in a single run. Expand Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 1:28 AM, WhiteoutMD said: The radar looks like its starting to fire up and has that winter look. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=LWX-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current/shd Expand It really is lighting up down SW…temps me worried yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Need 850 check. Bring me that and a Turley leg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 NAM! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Just got a 22/23 winter version of being NAM’d. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 1:33 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s its thing. 10 different looks in 10 hours. I do like news that it’s better. But that euro run … Expand I dont even look at it except for the 6 hour runs. It really did do well with last weeks snow. We will see if it was a blip or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 18z vs 0z. Nice. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Temp 34 IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 35 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Radar down in Charleston WV starting to light up. Precip looks far enough north for most of us I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 1:55 AM, nj2va said: Just got a 22/23 winter version of being NAM’d. \ Expand Post the 10:1... no need to be shy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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